Dynasty Value vs. Seasonal Results

Andre Johnson's recent knee injury prompted some serious discussion on our forums regarding his fantasy trade value. He happens to be the perfect example of a player who has solid dynasty value in spite of his most recent injury situation, due to the fact that when healthy, his ceiling is so high - and he has plenty more years left to play. The problem is that his seasonal outlook is very different.

On the other side of the coin, guys like Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, Marvin Harrison, Donald Driver, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez and several more are losing their dynasty luster, but maintaining solid season value. Why? The concept is simple.

Seasonal owners really only need to project and predict one thing when drafting and making roster moves - results. Keeper and dynasty owners need to also take into account value - especially when it comes to inaugural drafts. The owner than fills out his team with oodles of young-ish running backs and wide receivers will be smiling several months later as his players pan out, not only because several of them will be performing for him, but also because just about all of them will be trade-able. The problem with a guy like Larry Johnson right now in dynasty leagues, is that it's hard to get rid of him. He has caught a small case of Shaun Alexander syndrome.

Smart owners would go after Andre Johnson and try to get him "on the cheap" right now. This leads me to a dynasty league commandment - don't sell your stud players at their low point. For example, last season, Steven Jackson was a frustrating player to own at the beginning of the season, due a groin tear, and injuries that decimated his offensive line. I'm sure it was tempting for many of his long term owners to deal him and try and get some solid "win-now" talent.

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