Drafting Trends To Avoid

It’s unfortunate, but every year fantasy players across the country continue to make the same drafting mistakes. So this is my best attempt to help you avoid doing the same in your upcoming drafts. As a Fantasy Football Indepth Platinum subscriber you receive multiple tools to help you succeed, one of which is a thorough analysis of your fantasy team and league. One of our subscribers sent me her draft results and even though she completely dominated her draft using our custom cheat sheets, I was disturbed by the lack of direction some of these other guys were working with. So here goes.

She received the 4th overall pick in a 10 team league that starts 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 3WR’s, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF with a standard scoring system. I was thrilled with her first selection of Brian Westbrook since the Philly offense, for the most part, runs their entire scheme through Westbrook. She somehow landed Willis McGahee with her second pick, I don’t now how he fell, but he did. Her starting backfield consists of two first tier players. This was a great way to start her draft. Anyways, enough ranting about her selections, this article is designed to help us avoid drafting mistakes.

So let’s take a look at my first dilemma, Reggie Bush, who has a current ADP 30.6. In this particular draft, Bush fell to 57th overall pick. I know there are a lot of haters out there and this is probably deserved. Bush has struggled at times, but who is the only sure back in New Orleans entering this year? Who is still a former number 1 overall selection with jaw dropping natural ability? Well, there’s Aaron Stecker, but is he the answer? No! We’ve all heard of Pierre Thomas, but come on, this guy only has 52 career carries. Yes, Deuce will be back and will probably play, but two blown knees do not bode well for his longevity. The answer is Reggie Bush and even though he is coming off of knee surgery, there is no reason to let him fall this far. Bush will see the field frequently, either as a running back or as a receiver. The lesson here is to never pass on exceptional value. One team in this league has Ronnie Brown and Jonathan Stewart as their two starting backs, both of whom were selected well before Bush. This particular team faces a tough road. Thankfully, our subscriber nabbed him with her 6th pick. Bush is a phenomenal third option and she will be in great shape at the running back position.

Second, be careful when selecting your tight end. In this league, Antonio Gates went 27th overall, which in my opinion, is way too high. Gates averaged 9.5 points per game in 07’. This individual passed up on the likes of Brandon Marshall (10.9 ppg), Anquan Boldin (11.6 ppg) and Santonio Holmes (10.9 ppg). He ended up with Marvin Harrison (6.1 ppg) in round 5 as his WR2, an extremely precarious situation. First of all, if you believe Gates is the lone man atop the top tight end list, you are sadly mistaken. Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Dallas Clark are young and on the rise. Take for example Dallas Clark (8.5 ppg), who was selected in round 7 with the 61st overall selection. If this person had passed on Gates and selected Marshall, Holmes, or Boldin, he then would have been able to pick up Clark in a later round. Doing the math, the combination of Clark and one of the three receivers would still average at least 4 more ppg than his Harrison and Gates combo. The subtleties of fantasy football can either make you or brake you. Make you sure you pay attention to the smaller things.

Finally, do not draft a kicker early! This, in reality is probably the most frustrating habit of all because it can so easily be avoided. I don’t how many times I have to repeat myself, but it simply doesn’t make sense. In this particular draft, someone drafted Nick Folk in the 9th round with the 81st selection and Shayne Graham with the 83rd selection. They passed on guys like Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones, and Kevin Smith. Nauseating, isn’t it? I’m sure you agree that all three backs are solid additions to any team. Our subscriber was able to capitalize and take advantage of the stupidities of others by selecting Rudi Johnson as her 4th back.

This annoyingly resilient and flawed behavior is driving me insane. Why? First of all, did anyone draft Mason Crosby or Nick Folk last year? If you say you did, you are a liar! That’s because fantasy kickers are especially unpredictable. “What about the guys like Adam Vinatieri and Shayne Graham, who have had 3 or 4 consecutive solid seasons”, says the stubborn man. Yes, there are kickers who always do well, but let’s compare last year’s top ranked kicker with the 12th ranked kicker. Depending on your scoring format, the top ranked kicker was Mason Crosby and he averaged 8.8 ppg. The 12th ranked kicker was Adam Vinatieri and he averaged 7.4 ppg. The difference between the two is a tiny 1.4 ppg. Is that really worth a 9th round selection? Absolutely not! In reality, kickers are worth absolutely nothing, but unfortunately, we have to draft at least one. So when you do, please make it your last pick. It’s not going to make a difference and at least you won’t make the mistake of passing up solid depth. There’s always a ton of late round gems out there and if you waste an early pick on a kicker, you may be missing out.

There you have it. Avoid those mistakes and you will take the first step in separating yourself from the rift raft. Thanks to this wonderful subscriber, I was able to vent for a short while. Ahhhh, I feel much better. Oh by the way, she ran this draft. Her current roster is:

QB - Matt Hasselbeck
QB – Vince Young

RB - Brian Westbrook
RB – Willis McGahee
RB – Reggie Bush
RB – Rudi Johnson

WR – Chad Johnson
WR – Anquan Boldin
WR – Chris Chambers
WR – Bobby Engram
WR – Anthony Gonzalez
WR – Devin Hester

TE – Tony Scheffler

K – Jason Hanson

DEF – Dallas Cowboys

If you notice, her team is stocked with legitimate talent, especially at running back. Yet, she was still able to go after a couple of high risk yet higher reward players in Devin Hester and Vince Young. Kudos on the great draft!