Top 10 Sleepers

To be considered in the top 10 sleepers, a player had to be ranked outside the top 12 QBs or TEs and top 30 RBs or WRs in average draft position and also could not have been in our top 10 undervalued players.

#10 Ted Ginn Jr: Everyone knows about Ted Ginn not because of his play on the field but because the Dolphins passed on Brady Quinn to select him. In his rookie season, he only had 34 receptions for 420 yards and 2 touchdowns but he started getting more playing time in the second half of the season and responded well. This season the Dolphins have a new coach, an improved offensive line, McCown should bring more consistency at the quarterback position and Ginn will be the number one receiver. Chambers was traded last season and Marty Booker has been replaced by Ernest Wilford. Someone is going to have to catch some balls on this team and it is between the slow Wilford and the speedy first round pick; Ginn will be the number one target on a team that can only go up.

#9 Mark Clayton: He is one of the candidates that were identified in our statistical analysis to find potential breakout wide receivers. Clayton is in a group that according to that analysis has a 35% chance of improving their statistics from last year by at least 25% and to have over 150 fantasy points. Clayton had a very disappointing season in 2007 but it’s not easy when you have three different quarterbacks throughout the season and injuries on the offensive line. The line should be slightly better than last year even with the retirement of Ogden. Devard Darling who had 18 catches last year is gone and Derrick Mason will not have another season of over 100 receptions at 34 years old so someone else on this team will get more receptions. Todd Heap will also get his share now that he is back and fully recovered from his injuries but there should still be plenty for Clayton. Furthermore, Troy Smith who is expected to be the starter this year targeted Clayton on 16 of his 76 passes last year which projects to 115 passes thrown to Clayton if the Ravens attempt as many passes as last year. Finally, wide receivers who had between 3 and 5 TD catches (4 for Clayton) followed by 0 or 1 in the next season (0 for Clayton) averaged 4.4 in the following season. That statistic alone makes him worth his average draft position and if you include the great potential for more receptions, he is a sleeper candidate.

#8 Ahman Green / Chris Brown: We are not yet sure which of these two will earn the starting job but whoever does could have an exceptional season. The Texans averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season but Duane Brown is an upgrade at left tackle and so is Chris Myers at center. Furthermore, Alex Gibbs plans to install a new zone blocking system as explained in our analysis of the Houston Texans offensive line. Gibbs made the Broncos running game a dominant one from 1995 to 2003 and did the same thing with the Falcons from 2004 to 2006. The Texans will have an above average running game this season and all it will cost to lock up this backfield is an 8th and a 13th round pick. Steve Slaton could get a few carries but Green and Brown are by far the two best backs on this team, as long as they stay healthy.

#7 Tatum Bell: The Lions don’t have a great offensive line but it is quite underrated and will be using a zone blocking scheme this season. Cherilus is an upgrade over Woody in run blocking as you can read in our analysis of the Detroit Lions offensive line. The Lions will run much more this year than they did last year when Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator and they will also have a better line. The question remains who will be the starting running back? Between a back who has an average of 4.8 yards per carry in the NFL and knows the Lions offense and a third round selection, I would choose the back with NFL experience. Smith could start but he is being drafted on average 75 spots ahead of Tatum Bell. Yes Smith has potential but I would rather use a 12th round pick on Bell and hope that he wins the job, it’s low risk and has a high reward.

#6 Zach Miller: In our rankings we have players like Scheffler and Daniels ranked pretty high at tight end but it is pretty rare that there is a true sleeper at tight end. If there is going to be one this year, we really like second year Zach Miller. Since 1983, only three tight ends had more receptions in their rookie season than Miller had last year. JaMarcus Russell will most likely be the starter for the Raiders this season and last year he attempted 16 of his 66 passes to Miller. It is a very small sample but over a full season it would mean Miller could be targeted over 100 times. If we project Miller’s statistics from the second half of the season last year over 16 games, he would have been a top ten tight end. The Raiders replaced Jerry Porter with Javon Walker and also added Drew Carter. There are question marks with the top two receivers in Walker and Curry and overall the group of wide receivers is still pretty weak which means that Miller will get plenty of chances.

#5 Selvin Young: The Broncos running back situation is always a mystery but if you correctly pick the starter you will almost certainly get a bargain. Selvin Young was incredible last season with 5.2 yards per carry and there is absolutely no reason to believe that veteran career backup Michael Pittman or fifth round pick Ryan Torain can surpass him. If Young gets more than 250 carries he could easily be a top ten running back. He is currently being drafted in the sixth round on average and although I don’t suggest taking him as your second running back, he is an excellent third running back with a ton of upside.

#4 Marty Booker: After four seasons with the Miami Dolphins, Booker will return to the Chicago Bears where he started his career. The top two receivers with the Bears last season were Berrian and Muhammad and both are now gone. That means there will be about 150 receptions to be split between Booker, Bradley, Hester, Bennett and Lloyd. That might seem like a lot of competition but Bradley and Hester have never had more than 20 receptions while Brandon Lloyd is not much more than a speedy receiver. The Chicago offense is bad but Booker had 50 receptions as the #1 / #2 receiver with the worst team in the NFL so imagine what he can do as the #1 with a better team. Don’t expect exceptional numbers but he’s worth much more than the 80th receiver drafted.

#3 Bobby Engram / Nate Burleson: Last season Matt Hasselbeck passed 225 times for close to 3,000 yards and 22 TDs to his top four wide receivers. The difference this year is that Hackett is gone and Branch is likely to miss at least the first half of the season with an injury. Obomanu might get more looks this season and Branch might come back halfway through the season but even then, someone will have to catch the ball in Seattle. We are the first ones to say that Hasselbeck will not repeat his 2007 season so let’s assume this year he only passes 200 times for 2,500 yards and 15 TDs to his top four receivers (decrease of 20% in fantasy points). Burleson and Engram will get at least two thirds of those with Branch injured and Obomanu not as talented as them. That means Burleson and Engram are looking at least at 65 receptions for 800 yards and 5 touchdowns each. These conservative projections would make them top 30 receivers but they are being drafted as the 35th and 48th best receivers.

#2 Laurent Robinson: Robinson is another player who seems to be very underrated because he is on a bad offense. Most agree that Roddy White will not match his numbers from 2007 and that Joe Horn will probably not see much action in 2008 after requesting a trade. Consider also that Crumpler is no longer with the team which means that either Jenkins or Robinson is going to be targeted much more often. Rookie wide receivers who had between 70 and 110 points improve by an average of 54 percent which means Robinson is looking at about 135 points in point per reception leagues. This alone makes Robinson well worth his draft position and it does not include that the Falcons offensive line is much better in pass protection and that Robinson should now be the number two target in the offense behind Roddy White instead of the number four like last year.

#1 Leon Washington: Washington made the highlights last year with his impressive returns but was not much of a factor on offense. Washington finished the year as the 45th best running back in a point per reception league and is being drafted around the 50th best right now. Since last year, the Jets have added a Pro Bowl guard in Alan Faneca, have improved at right tackle with Damien Woody and have added a Pro Bowl fullback in Tony Richardson. Thomas Jones is still the starter but Washington will be the third down back and should improve over last year even if he remains only the third down back. However, the Jets will probably want to give him more carries this year considering he averaged 5.0 yards per carry last year. In point per reception leagues, we have Washington in the same group as Jerious Norwood and Chester Taylor; all three are backs that could shine if there is an injury but even if there isn’t, they will get close to 10 fantasy points each week. According to out Breakout Running Backs Article, Washington is one of four running backs who have a 48.5% chance of improving by at least 25% and to reach 150 fantasy points.