Is There A New Jinx That's Worse Than The Madden Curse?

The Madden Curse has a long history of claiming seasons and even a career.

There are several different opinions on how many people were actually affected by the curse.

Here is the evidence…

Garrison Heart appeared on the 1999 cover and went on to enjoy a career season, but then suffered a broken ankle in the playoffs and the Niners lost the game.

Barry Sanders graced the 2000 cover along with John Madden. Sanders retired before the season even started.

Eddie George may be an exception as he followed his 2001 appearance with a very solid year. It was a year after that in which he turned in career lows across the board and was never the same again.

Daunte Culpepper was coming off a season of nearly 4500 total yards and 40 TD. He graced the 2002 cover and threw for 14 TD and 13 INT before a back injury ended his season.

Marshall Faulk was coming off a Super Bowl appearance and was the reigning Offensive Player of the Year when he agreed to be on the cover of Madden 2003. He suffered an ankle sprain that cost him 6 games and he failed to reach 1000 yards rushing for the first time in 7 years. He never returned to his previous level of play.

Michael Vick was a rising star when he appeared on the 2004 cover. He didn’t even make it out of the preseason as he suffered a fractured fibula on a nasty tackle from behind. Vick only appeared in 5 games that season.

Ray Lewis is another questionable cursed player. He was the first defensive player to make the cover when he was on Madden 2005. He led the Ravens to a division title the prior season and had a career high 6 interceptions. After becoming a cover boy, he failed to record an INT and failed to make the playoffs. He did have a solid season though.

Madden 2006 saw Donovan McNabb on the cover. That season he suffered a sports hernia and attempted to tough it out, but Roy Williams put on hit on McNabb that worsened the injury and caused him to have season ending surgery. He played in just 9 games that year and hasn’t finished a full season since.

The 2007 curse shifted its focus to Shaun Alexander. Alexander rushed for 1880 yards and 27 TD the previous season. After appearing on the cover, he suffered a fracture in his foot and missed 6 games. He failed to reach 1000 yards and scored just 7 TD. He followed that up with a 700 and 4 campaign and is now out of football.

Madden 2008’s cover boy was Vince Young. Young appeared to be ready to step up and become a dual threat quarterback that gave opposing defenses fits. Instead he threw for just 9 TD and 17 INT and missed one game.

The curse finally seemed like it was going to skip a year when the 2009 cover featured Brett Favre, who was safely hidden away in Mississippi enjoying retirement. With his return to the New York Jets, only time will tell if the curse comes true.

What we do know for sure is that there may be another curse to watch out for as it’s already claimed its 2008 poster boy.

Tom Brady was the inspiration behind the logo for The All American Touchdown Derby at passitdeep.com after his record-breaking season last year. It seemed like a no brainer that you’d have to honor the record holder for most touchdowns thrown in one season.

And so the story begins…

The All American Touchdown Derby curse has a long history of claiming seasons.

In 2008, a Tom Brady replica graced the front page of passitdeep.com after throwing for a record 50 TD passes in 2007. He stepped onto the field to begin his follow-up campaign and didn’t make it out of the first quarter before suffering a torn ACL and MCL that claimed his season before he could register a single touchdown.

Now this could certainly just be a coincidence, but for the sake of my fantasy football keeper league, I’d prefer if the guys at passitdeep.com didn’t look at Jay Cutler when designing the 2009 version of the game.

The True Guru's 2008 Season In Review: Part 1 "Luck and Sabermetrics"

Well, this has been one heck of a tough year for me and my radio show with other personalities. I had some problems in the industry that I did not expect or see coming, but in contrast I also made many new friends with some wonderful websites. SO overall its been a great year.



One reason I made some people in the industry upset is I don't subscribe to the same old school philosophies that have guided the industry for years. That I not only use my own formula for success, but that I also use it in full view of the fantasy baseball community with huge success. I did this through blogs, radio shows, and an expert league. Another reason they may not be happy is the fact that I tell it like it is and I don't care much for unwritten rules or agreeing just to be nice. I've said all year, if you disagree with me come on my show to defend your ideas or prove it to me in a H2H expert league.



So the whole point on this diatribe is to discuss one of two issues that were brought up on my show and blogs several times through out the year and that is the question of LUCK. This was the topic of one argument between me and a former co host of The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show. To note, my former co host's managing philosophy is build completely around sabermetrics. Now there are many managers who believe in luck, and there are even several different ways they believe in it. Those ways can be injuries, breakout or unexpected performance, scoring points at the right time, or your player playing more or less then expected, etc...

For the most part as I've said on my shows, luck exists how my former co host would say "in a vacuum". You see luck effects every team nearly every day, so chalk it up no different then RSTLN E on Wheel Of Fortune (Those are the letters chosen so often for the grand prize game that Wheel Of Fortune ended up making them automatic and allowing the contestant to pick 4 more letters.)

Luck is automatic except in cases of injury where we call it "bad luck". Its as simple as that and anyone who argues it different cannot consider themselves a champion of this game. By no means can you assume and I mean making an ASS out of YOU and ME. That's right you cannot assume that a player is lucky for whatever reason or that one player had bad luck. That a pitcher who gives up 14 more home runs then the year before is bad luck or a hitter stealing 10 more bases good luck. Its just not.

Since we already established that it's automatic for everyone then we can accept that at one point or another we all have good and bad luck.

My thoughts are simple; there are skills, strategies, pinpoint perfect moves, but there is not bad luck. There are educated guesses, match ups at the wrong time, and breakout performances that ruin your week, but no such bad luck.

The people that crow the most about "luck" are followers of the Religion of Sabermatrics (ZALTAR!). This is an amazing breakthrough as a tool used to enhance scouting in MLB, but instead it has been transformed by fantasy experts and has replaced scouting in that arena. That is just not what its meant for.

The reason they cry "luck" more than anyone is they refuse to admit that there are serious flaws in their precious calculations and that sabermetrics can and often does fail. Therefore it becomes their answer to something sabermetrics could not explain. It must be luck.


Let's see if this works in other professions:

Well, I don't know how it happened, but with some good luck I managed to give you a heart transplant.

I don't know why she died. I guess I was having bad luck cause my CPR didn't save her.

I got a "F" on my exam BAD LUCK!

OK, you all get it. Its an excuse because they can't explain what happened. The difference in statisticians, voyeurs, scouting experts, gut guys, and other experts don't have that problem nearly as often if ever. We analyze actual data or film and make expert decisions. We don't plug numbers into a formula and draft a team based on a few percentages and formulas.

So when you hear about "luck" from a sabermetrics expert know that what he is actually telling you is, "I can't explain why that happened GOOD LUCK OR BAD LUCK.

Here are some 2008 Examples that sabermetric experts would attribute luck too:

Gavin Floyd - He was lucky
Xavier Nady - He was lucky
Jose Reyes - He was unlucky
Jacoby Ellsbury - He was lucky

(Trust me there are many more)


To wrap this up, I hope I've made my point clear that using luck outside of injuries is a weak excuse and if the experts that you take advice from whip out luck as an excuse because what they said didn't happen, walk away and go towards the light of an expert who explains luck rather than use it to hide their flaws and mistakes..


I promise The True Guru doesn't believe in luck like that, just winning.


Todd "The True Guru" Farino

NFL Touchdown Sunday Quick Hits - Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Cleveland Browns 6
So when do you think the suits at 280 Park Avenue will start kicking themselves for putting the sexy Browns on prime time five times this year? The biggest mistake the league and networks made was having three of those prime time games come after Halloween.

After Kellen Winslow screamed “I was open! I was open!” on his way into the locker room at the end of the first half (which, you recall, ended with Derek Anderson tossing an interception to Troy Polamalu), he went out and had a drop, committed a false start and ran more than one impotent route in the second half. Oh, he also had his lunch eating in several blocking situations.

I have no idea why the Browns don’t incorporate Jerome Harrison into their offense more. If Braylon Edwards is going to continue to be ineffective, Harrison may be Cleveland’s only playmaker.

Props to Chris Kemoeatu and the rest of the Steelers offensive line. I’m one of the doubters who, so far, have been disproved.

Santonio Holmes has officially surpassed Hines Ward as Pittsburgh’s premium wideout.

I’m sorry, but wasn’t Rashard Mendenhall supposed to be the two-punch behind Willie Parker?

Denver Broncos 39, San Diego Chargers 38
After this game, Norv Turner said that Ed Hochulli’s blown call on the Jay Cutler fumble was not acceptable and that it decided the game. Shut up, Norv. Your team gave up 39 points, including consecutive scores from inside the five-yard-line in the waning seconds. That’s what decided the game.

Not to mention, Hochulli made a mistake, yes (kudos to him for publicly admitting it, by the way). But it’s not like the Chargers did anything on that play – Cutler simply dropped the ball. So again, Norv, shut up.

New nickname for Antonio Cromartie: Mrs. Brandon Marshall.

How about Jay Cutler? 36/50 for 350 yards and four touchdowns!? The guy may wind up being the most prolific passer in the AFC this year. Before the season I wrote that with his arm strength, he’ll have to really fight the temptation to force tough throws into traffic. A great example of that was his interception in the end zone to Antoine Cason. But that one bad play puts only a mild dent in the young passer’s outstanding performance.

Broncos rookie left tackle Ryan Clady has performed well thus far. In fact, that whole offensive line has.

I’m really liking Denver’s running back by committee approach. Selvin Young has been making big plays, Andre Hall still catches defenses off guard when he enters the game and Michael Pittman knows how to produce near the goal line.

Tony Scheffler looks more like a star every time I see him.


Arizona Cardinals 31, Miami Dolphins 10
At one point, Kurt Warner was 9/9 for 221 yards and two touchdowns. That’s how you know he was playing the Dolphins.

The Arizona coaching staff was on Larry Fitzgerald all offseason about being a tougher runner after the catch. Fitzgerald listened. His diligent improvements in this area have been on shimmering display the first two weeks (his 75-yard catch and run in this game obviously being the brightest highlight so far).

Ricky Williams was the buzz coming out of Dolphins camp. Through two games, he has 21 carries for 52 yards and hasn’t shown an ounce of burst. It should be noted that Ronnie Brown has not been anything special, either, and Miami’s front five has looked every bit like the inexperienced, makeshift unit that it is.

The cameras were on Kendall Langford after his personal foul facemask penalty kept what turned out to be a Cardinal touchdown drive alive. With Langford being a small school rookie, and the cameras catching Tony Sparano talking to him, homogeneous analysts everywhere made the brilliant observation of “what a big mistake the young guy made.” Lay off him. It was a facemasking violation on a sack – that’s just one of those things.

P.S. Cardinal fans: your team is 2-0 after beating the 49ers and Dolphins. Be please, but contain your enthusiasm until the Cards face a varsity team.


Click here to see Quick Hits for all of the Week 2 action from Sunday.

Betus.Com Radio Interview With The All American Touchdown Derby

Only 3 more days to sign up for The All American Touchdown Derby: www.passitdeep.com

NFL Betting Daily & Week 1 Injury Reports

Every match up, every line and every significant injury is covered every week on the BetUS NFL Betting Daily Podcast, keeping you in the know for the upcoming NFL week 1 games.

We are also paid a visit by Passitdeep.com’s Jim DeGoerge who fills us in on his NFL QB touchdown Derby fantasy game running the whole NFL season…you can win $1500 in cash and a $500 BetUS Free Play for winning this thing, go sign up!

Click on this link or cut & paste it into your browser to listen to our interview with Betus Radio Show Host Damon D!

http://radio.betus.com/2008/09/04/nfl-betting-daily-week-1-injury-reports/

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Are The Saints Marching To New Orleans?

My freshman Geology professor at the University of Connecticut, Robert Thorson, once wrote a piece in the Hartford Courant proclaiming that rebuilding New Orleans after Katrina was useless and that no matter what improvements they planned to make there was no way to fully protect the city. Obviously he tried to keep all emotional attachment people have to the city out of his analysis and just give an objective, safe diagnosis. Here is an excerpt from the abstract of that piece written back in 2005:

“Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and rock avalanches are relatively easy to comprehend because only one earth process is dominant and because the energy is released dramatically. More chronic and complicated hazards, such as the one facing New Orleans today, are much more difficult to comprehend. Resorting to analogy, the so-called war to save New Orleans is less a series of pitched battles against hurricanes than a protracted siege. Four natural armies are camped outside the dikes that wall in the city: the army of the sinking land, the army of the rising sea, the army of the retreating shoreline and the army of the rising river bed. Their patience is endless. Their victory is certain. It’s only a matter of time.”

Now fast forward to today. Hurricane Gustav, originally a Category 4 storm, was downgraded to a Category 2 (out of 5) storm prior to it reaching land in New Orleans. Despite the reduction, despite the millions of dollars spent on rebuilding and fortification after Katrina, the levees of New Orleans were still tested. They passed this test, so I guess all is well that ends well, but how long can this last. If I learned one thing from Professor Thorson and his Geology 105 class, it was that you should never go to war with Mother Nature. There isn’t a weapon or a shield in existence that can withstand her wrath.

Now I’ve never been to New Orleans, regrettably. I have a strong appreciation for the culture and tradition and just the overall mystique that surrounds that city. I have a strong appreciation for the support the citizens give to the athletes that represent them, even in the wake of disaster. But is all of that worth the lives of thousands? Is the spirit of New Orleans lost if moved a few miles up the coast? What is the price in human currency of the New Orleans tradition? I can’t answer these questions, but someone should. Gustav came and went with a relative whisper, but now Hurricane Hannah, the next wave in Mother Nature’s attack on the Big Easy, will try its luck on the levees.

Not to get political, but if we are going attack the government for their handling of Hurricane Katrina, if we are going to demand that the citizens of a city that seems to be first on Aeolus the Greek God of Storm’s s*** list be protected, perhaps we should start looking to ourselves for answers. Someday we may find that we are paying too high a price for the Big Easy. Perhaps it isn’t so easy after all.

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