Who's Ready To Breakout?

There were three first basemen taken early in most drafts, all coming off a huge 2007 season. All three have been disappointing and inconsistent to this point in mid May. Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena are the three sluggers in this debate and the questions which we'd like to know the answers to are:

1. Which one is most likely to breakout and play to expectations?

2. Which one is most likely to continue struggling and miss expectations?

Ryan Howard: While his 9 HRs are okay, it only projects to 33 for this season. That's a huge droppoff from his 47 and 58 homer tallies of 2007 and his MVP 2006 season. What is far more concerning is MLB record strikeout pace and his horrid .188 batting average. The one positive to look is the fact that he hit 10 homers in both June and July last year after a slow start and a DL stint.


Prince Fielder: While his 2008 line of 5-23-.255 is not terrible, it's far off his monstrous 2007 season of 50-119-.288. Much has been made of his conversion to a vegetarian, but he still physically looks like a power hitter to me. Last season his best month was May, with 13 dingers, but he has only 1 so far this month. In addition, in his 141 at bats so far, he has only 7 doubles.

Carlos Pena: Coming off a career year of 46-121-.281, there were many skeptics who doubted whether Pena could repeat those numbers. Fantasy owners would've been happy for something close to that, but his number to this point are only 8-20-.211, which would put him on pace for 30 homers and 77 RBIs. Not bad, but also below expectations. Last season he had 10 homers in April and May combined, so maybe he's just a slow starter. His power stroke was consistent the rest of the way, with 7 in June, 8 in July, 8 in August, and finishing big in September, belting 13.

Which one of these three will come the closest to meeting expectations?
Which one will be the biggest disappointment?

Let's see your comments for the concerned fantasy owners.