Miami DolphinsJosh McCown seems to be the best bet to make the first start of the season. After that, all bets are off. John Beck and Chad Henne would both like to get their chance to lead the Dolphins this year, but it probably won’t matter who is under center. At least Jake Long will prevent them from taking too much abuse.
AFC NorthPittsburgh SteelersThere’s no QB controversy in Pittsburgh as Big Ben gears his team up for another year. Roethlisberger was a happy man on draft day as Rashard Mendenhall fell into the Steelers laps. Mendenhall joins Willie Parker to form a potent 1-2 punch. The Steelers also added Limas Sweed to a WR corps. that already includes Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.
Cleveland BrownsBrady Quinn is used to waiting after his frustrating draft day, but it appears as though he’ll have to continue with his patience, as Derek Anderson became the unquestioned starter last year. Anderson has 2 of the best players in the game at his disposal. It’s scary but Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards should actually improve this year.
Cincinnati BengalsThe good news is that Carson Palmer’s #1 weapon is in camp. The bad news is that his #1 weapon wants to hit him in his bad knee. It’s not the first time that Palmer hasn’t been on the same page as Chad Johnson, but we’ll see if it affects the two during games.
Baltimore RavensJoe Flacco is the quarterback of the future, but when is the future? Kyle Boller will most likely be given his chance, but also a short leash. Either QB will have to rely on Willis McGahee and hope that Todd Heap can return to Pro Bowl caliber.
AFC SouthIndianapolis ColtsThe biggest news regarding Peyton Manning at camp is that Peyton Manning isn’t at camp. He’s somewhere nearby recovering from knee surgery and isn’t expected to see any action until late preseason.
Jacksonville JaguarsDavid Garrard enters his 2nd season at the helm with the aging Fred Taylor and the emerging Maurice Jones-Drew behind him. You can put down Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter as additions and Matt Jones as a subtraction/distraction.
Tennessee TitansReports out of camp are that Vince Young isn’t looking very sharp and making matters worse, the Titans failed to add any top WR during the draft. He’ll have Chris Johnson added to the backfield along with Craig Stevens at TE and Lavelle Hawkins at WR, but Tennessee passed on guys like Limas Sweed.
Houston TexansMatt Schaub hopes to show what he can do in a full year with Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones could be a sleeper at WR. Ahman Green is another injury concern and West Virginia rookie Steve Slaton could wind up with a decent amount of time in the backfield.
AFC WestSan Diego ChargersPhilip Rivers showed up to camp bigger and reportedly throwing the ball very well. Health will play a key role for the Chargers, as Antonio Gates tries to put his toe problems behind him. LT will continue to keep the pressure off of Rivers.
Denver BroncosAfter Jay Cutler lost 35 pounds during his battle with diabetes, he’s slowly regaining his strength. With the departure of Travis Henry, the Broncos next 1000-yard rusher is a mystery, but Cutler will still have emerging superstar Brandon Marshall on the business end of his touchdown passes.
Kansas City ChiefsBrodie Croyle needs to have a healthy Larry Johnson to help him keep defenses honest, but if he can’t, rookie Jamaal Charles will try to shoulder the load. Branden Albert will solidify the offensive line and 6-8 Brad Cottam will provide depth behind Tony Gonzalez.
Oakland RaidersFor JaMarcus Russell, the time is now. Russell takes over as the starter and he has a lot of question marks around him. Will the improved defense allow him to win games without being in a shootout? Will Javon Walker stay healthy? Will Darren McFadden be the next Adrian Peterson?
NFC EastDallas CowboysTony Romo doesn’t have Julius Jones behind him anymore, but he still has Marion Barber and newcomer Felix Jones. He also REALLY needs TO and Jason Witten to stay healthy. If TO goes down, they have Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd.
New York GiantsEli Manning returns this season as a Super Bowl MVP. The Giants fans love him…until his first INT. He should have a healthy Plax this year, which will lead to better numbers, but he’ll also have to rely on Kevin Boss to fill Shockey’s cleats.
Philadelphia EaglesDonovan McNabb says that he’s perfectly healthy, but he hasn’t made it through a full season since 2004 and Kevin Kolb has been impressive in camp. DeSean Jackson is the only major offensive addition from the draft and it remains to be seen if he’s going to be a punt return specialist or contribute at WR also.
Washington RedskinsJason Campbell has been up and down thus far during training camp. The Redskins are going with the West Coast Offense, so it will take everyone a while to get comfortable. Washington also added Devin Thomas, Fred Davis and Malcolm Kelly via the draft.
NFC NorthGreen Bay PackersWhat can I say about Green Bay that hasn’t been all over the news already? The Packers remain in a standstill with Brett Favre, but it does appear that Aaron Rodgers will be the starting QB either way. He knows that he’ll have veteran Donald Driver and young star Greg Jennings out wide, but Ryan Grant is in the middle of a contract dispute and hasn’t reported to camp.
Minnesota VikingsMinnesota would love to bring in Brett Favre to replace Tarvaris Jackson, but that’s just not going to happen. Jackson will again lean heavily on Adrian Peterson to give him some breathing room. The Vikings did add Bernard Berrian, which gives them their best receiving threat since parting ways with Randy Moss. Look for Sidney Rice to improve on a solid rookie campaign.
Chicago BearsIt’s literally a coin toss in Chicago with Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton battling it out for the starting gig. Whoever does win the job, takes over a position that no longer has Berrian to stretch the field or Cedric Benson in the backfield. Greg Olsen should be the go-to guy.
Detroit LionsDetroit is the only team in the NFC North not mention with Brett Favre, so they will enter the season with Jon Kitna under center. With Kevin Jones gone, Tatum Bell and rookie Kevin Smith will carry the ground game. Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson return as one of the league’s top tendems. Gosder Cherlius was drafted to provide more time in the pocket for Kitna and room for the backs to run.
NFC SouthTampa Bay BuccaneersJeff Garcia is the starting quarterback. Just ask him. Brett Favre seems less and less likely to be on his way to Tampa, so Garcia would appear to be correct. Garcia will be handing the ball off to Warrick Dunn or Carnell Williams or Ernest Graham or Michael Bennett. His go-to WR will once again be Joey Galloway, but they did draft Dexter Jackson, the speedster from Appalachian State.
Carolina PanthersJake Delhomme is ready to take the reigns again and make Steve Smith the feared wide out that he can be. Jonathan Stewart will take the place of DeShaun Foster and join DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. First round pick Jeff Otah will provide the protection.
New Orleans SaintsDrew Brees rebounded from a rough start to post very respectable numbers last year. He spent a good chunk of the season without Duece McAllister and Reggie Bush did not embrace the role of starting running back. Brees will now have his full compliment of backs and the addition of Jeremy Shockey will be huge.
Atlanta FalconsOne thing is for sure in Atlanta. Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, DJ Shockley or Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback. Word out of camp is that Matt Ryan looks good, but time will tell if they let the rookie have the job by the opener. The only offensive addition of note is the signing of Michael Turner, who joins Jerious Norwood to form a lethal combo.
NFC WestSeattle SeahawksThe Shaun Alexander era is over. Julius Jones will share the load with Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett will be the backup. Matt Hasselbeck needs a healthy Deion Branch if they want to be successful on offense. Seattle did add TE John Carlson in April.
Arizona CardinalsMatt Leinart feels much more comfortable with the Cardinals offense than he did last year. It remains to be seen if he can play well enough to keep Kurt Warner on the sidelines. With Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the table is setup for his success.
San Francisco 49ersAlex Smith will likely be the starter, but Shaun Hill will do his best to win the job. The Niners added DeShaun Foster, Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson in the off-season and Frank Gore should thrive under Mike Martz.
St. Louis RamsMarc Bulger needs Orlando Pace to get healthy. Pace is the key to the Rams offense as he protects Bulger and allows Steven Jackson all the room that he needs. Rookie Donnie Avery hopes to overtake Drew Bennett on the depth chart and start alongside Torry Holt.
Go Deep: www.passitdeep.com
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Training Camp News
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
MLB Weekly Review
Don’t look now but the defending National League Champions are well on their way to teaching the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers a very important lesson.The Colorado Rockies are blazing a trail to the top on the NL West and the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are kicking themselves for letting them hang around.The Rockies have won 9 of their last 10 games, including 5 in a row. Colorado is averaging 7.6 runs per game during that stretch and they scored 10 in their lone loss. In a 16-10 loss to the Dodgers, Kip Wells was tagged for 8 runs in one-third of an inning and the Rockies couldn’t overcome an 11 run deficit. Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki were all visitors to the DL this season and Tulowitzki just returned from his 2nd stint. He has provided the team with a spark since his return going 13 for 26.The Rockies aren’t the only streaking team, as the New York Yankees have also been playing inspired ball since the All-Star Break.New York was riding as 8-game winning streak before suffering a 9-2 setback on Sunday in the series finale at Boston.During the winning streak, the Yankees held their opponents to just 15 runs and used their defense to lead them to 2-1 and 1-0 victories. They now sit just 3 games back in the division.Players like Matt Holliday(.565 average), Jeff Baker(.579), Alex Rodriguez(.476) and Robinson Cano(.480) have contributed to their teams success recently, but they aren’t the hottest hitters of the past week.Alex Rios takes top honors as the best hitter of the week with his .344 average, 7 Runs, 4 HR, 8 RBI and 4 SB. Ryan Braun is a close 2nd with a .414 average, 4 Runs, 4 HR and 12 RBI.Andy Pettitte and Cliff Lee turned in the top pitching performances this week as they each collected 2 wins. Pettitte went 14 innings while scattering 9 hits, allowing 2 ER and striking out 16. He won a 10-3 blowout and a 2-1 pitchers duel.Lee pitched 17 innings while giving up 17 hits, 4 ER and struck out 14 batters.Rich Harden was also lights out this week, but has an 0-1 record to show for it because the Cubs provided just 2 runs of support in 2 games.Harden pitched 12 solid innings while giving up just 3 hits. Two of the 3 hits were solo homeruns and the only runs he allowed. He struck out 10 in each outing, giving him 30 in 3 games as a Cub.We haven’t seen any major deals since Harden joined the Cubs, but there were a couple trades of interest this week.The New York Yankees added Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady from the Pirates in exchange for prospects and Casey Blake was sent from Cleveland to the Dodgers.With only a few days remaining before the deadline, things could get interesting.Will the Rockies be buyers or sellers? Will the Yankees add Jared Washburn or Adam Dunn? Will Mark Teixeira remain in Atlanta? Will Manny keep being Manny in Boston?Some many questions and so little time remaining to answer them.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Tough Decisions - Part 2
We had a similar debate last year involving Reggie Wayne and his partner in crime Marvin Harrison (pun intended). We clearly stated Reggie would supplant Harrison and step in as Peyton’s new favorite target. As Peyton’s main man, is Reggie setting his fantasy sights on the incumbent number two, Terrell Owens. Not yet. Wayne is a phenomenal receiver and he will have an extraordinary year, but he still cannot compete with Terrell Owens’ nose for the end-zone. Over his entire career, Owens has averaged a touchdown in 3 out of every 4 games. When looking at other players with stellar careers such Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Randy Moss or any other active receiver that comes to mind, only Randy Moss has a better ratio. Owens has showed no signs of slowing down and I expect him and Romo to continue to connect.
On the other hand, Wayne does have more value in one format and that is if your league rewards points for receptions (PPR). With Jason Witten on the field, Owens will never have the chance to compete for the league lead in receptions, whereas Reggie Wayne is the man we expect to end the year atop the receptions list. Even though T.O. will end the year with more touchdowns, Wayne’s yardage and reception totals will push him into the number two spot in PPR formats. So as you can see, while Owens is our choice, the winner of this battle depends greatly on you league rules and scoring format. Thankfully, our Customizable Cheat Sheets do all of the hard work for you.
Chad Johnson vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Chad Johnson seems to be this year’s trendy “Bust” prediction. He threatened to hold out and he’s currently nursing injured ankles, so everyone’s jumping on the wagon and avoiding Chad. Let make this clear, Chad Johnson will be fine! But for the time being, take advantage of the situation and draft Johnson as he is falling deep into the third round in some leagues. Who would have thought we would see the day when Chad Johnson is drafted after T.J. Houshmandzadeh? I mean first of all, if for some strange reason Johnson does miss time, all of those who drafted T.J. in the late second round will be hating life. The Cincy offense needs Ocho Cinco to succeed and the only reason T.J. is so successful is because he’s constantly single covered. Take the time to watch the some film from the Cincy offense and you will always see the safeties shaded towards Johnson, and he will constantly be bracketed, especially in the red-zone. Secondly, T.J. has never eclipsed 1200 yards in a season. Even last year, when he led the league in receptions with 112, he still only managed 1143 yards. Simply said, he will never have the yardage to compete with the elite guys. Yes, he did have 12 touchdowns, but when it was all set and done, Johnson still ended the year with more fantasy points.
Chad Johnson is arguably the most consistent receiver in fantasy football. Some claim his production comes in lump sums, but even that claim is flawed. All receivers, even the best, have days where they don’t show up. Last year, Moss had a 34 yard game, Owens had a 21 and a 25 yard game and even Reggie Wayne had a 38 yard game. Yet Johnson, who has been labeled the inconsistent one, never had less than 48 yards in a game. So when the time comes, pass on T.J. and pick Johnson. And don’t worry about his injury, rehab on his ankle is going fine and I fully expect Chad to be Chad. Still, I can’t complain about this growing trend. In one of my leagues that awards a point per reception, I was able to pick up Andre Johnson with my second round pick and was ecstatic when I grabbed Johnson with my third pick.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Everyone is invited to play The All American Touchdown Derby
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Friday, July 25, 2008
Top 40 NFL Running Backs Going into 2008
already given you the top 31 QB's, this list will cover the top 40 RB's, and soon we will rank the WR and TE. Here are the running backs:
- LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers
1,474 yards, 15 TDs, 60 rec, 475 rec yards, 3 rec TDsLT is still the best in the game, even though his numbers were no where near his MVP season. He does it all, he gets the tough yards, he can break one all the way, and he is great catching passes out of the backfield. His offensive line is better than average, and the San Diego offense basically revolves around him. He's been saying that he probably has three years left before he starts thinking about retiring, so there's no reason to think that he won't be the best back in the NFL again in 2008.
- Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
1,072 yards, 12 TDs, 41 rec, 364 rec yards, 3 rec TDsI'm using the term "man-crush" for my feelings about Addai. His stats don't jump up and slap you in the face to get your attention, but he is definitely one of the best. He is basically the only running back option that they have in Indy, so it isn't like he will lose 10 carries a game to his backup. He had a good statistical season even though the Colts basically rested him the last four weeks of the season to get him ready for the playoffs. He gets the goal line carries, he gets the short yardage carries, is better than average catching the ball out of the backfield, and I can easily see him rushing for 15 TDs this season.
- Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams
1,002 yards, 5 TDs, 38 rec, 271 rec yards, 1 rec TD (12 games)Before the start of the 2007 season Jackson was viewed as a guy who would rival Tomlinson for the top spot in fantasy. Well, between injuries to himself, his QB, and most of his offensive line, the season was a nightmare that rivaled Britney Spears' custody battle. Jackson still managed to run for 1,000 yards (just barely!), and remains the only show in town in the Rams' backfield. He is great as a pass receiver, as he caught 90 passes in 2006. Jackson is big, motivated, and will reestablish himself as one of the top options in fantasy football.
- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
1,341 yards, 12 TDs, 19 rec, 268 rec yards, 1 rec TDOk, the guy had an amazing rookie season and was easily the best first year player in 2007. However, I think we might have been a little quick to anoint him as someone who could supplant LT as the best in football in just his second year. Peterson is explosive and can take any carry all the way, there's no doubt about that. But here's a few factors that have me ranking him behind Addai and Jackson. First, Chester Taylor is a very good backup and will get at least five to seven carries every game. Two, he has had some injury problems in the past. He broke his collarbone among other things when he was in college and missed two games due to a knee injury last year. It isn't a HUGE concern, but running backs are fragile due to the beating they take, and as the injuries mount up, it takes its toll. Three, his touchdown numbers were good, but ten of the twelve touchdowns he scored were in four games. That leaves 13 weeks of the fantasy season where he didn't score for you, and let's face it touchdowns are where you win and lose your matchups. Additionally, five different weeks he had 60 yards or less. The last thing that keeps him from the top for me is he doesn't catch the ball at all. 19 catches over a full season is terrible for a RB, and he doesn't get that added dynamic that the top few options get. All that being said, if you can grab "All Day" in the fourth spot, you should be quick to pick Peterson. This is not a knock on his talent, just the reasons he wasn't ranked higher.
- Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
1,262 yards, 11 TDs, 47 rec, 389 rec yards, 0 rec TDsWhen the Redskins really needed him to step up as they made their playoff push, Portis responded in a big way. He rushed for 306 yards and 4 TDs in the last three weeks (read: fantasy playoff time), and had another successful campaign. When healthy, this guy is one of the more explosive backs in the league, and has never rushed for under 1,200 yards when he played the whole season, and he has had double digit touchdowns every year but one. Ladell Betts proved he could carry the load during 2006 when Portis missed half the year, but Betts was almost completely ignored last season while Clinton was healthy, proving who is the star of the show in DC. I am expecting even better stats in 2008, with 1,400+ yards and 14 TDs.
- Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys
975 yards, 10 TDs, 44 rec, 282 rec yards, 2 rec TDsThis guy runs like he is pissed off at the world, and when he hits someone in the open field, he usually falls forward or just keeps right on going. Barber has been the Cowboy worth owning in the Texas Twosome of he and Julius Jones, as Barber had been getting all the red zone carries and the majority of the scores. Well, Jones left town for the Great Northwest, so now Barber is sharing the backfield with a rookie and figures to get 20+ carries every game. Barber is a very physical runner, which could lend itself to injury, but so far in his career he has been quite durable. He has shown some talent with receptions out of the backfield and is dangerous once he gets a head of steam rolling. This is the first time he will be "the man" in Dallas, and I completely expect him to thrive under that situation. I'm looking for him to run for 1,300+ yards and 13 scores.
- Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles
1,333 yards, 7 TDs, 90 rec, 771 yards, 5 rec TDsThis is a guy that I have never been high on, but after last season you can't ignore the stats. Westbrook's small frame has made his susceptible to injury over the past few years, but he never seems to miss entire games too often. He is one of the best with the ball in the open field, and the Eagles offense gives him a lot of opportunity to showcase this with swing passes and screen plays. Especially with the recent injuries to Donovan McNabb, the entire offense in Philly has revolved around Westbrook. He isn't a huge touchdown scorer, which hurts his value, but he makes up for it with the pass receptions (if your league gives points for that). Assuming McNabb comes back healthy, I expect his numbers to take a step back to right around 1,000 yards rushing, 5 TDs, and about 60 catches. Good numbers, but not his 2007 season.
- Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs
559 yards, 3 TDs, 30 rec, 186 rec yards, 1 rec TDs (8 games)The second overall fantasy pick the past couple seasons, Larry Johnson came crashing back to earth after struggling the first few weeks, and then his season came to an end after a cracked bone in his foot. Johnson recovered from a rough beginning to rush for over 100 yards in three of his last five games, and scored in his last three. However, the offense surrounding him in Kansas City is going to make it tough for him to get back to those 1,700 yard, 18 TD seasons. His quarterback is horrible, meaning he will be facing eight men in the box on many occasions. Even worse, his offensive line is far from what it used to be, meaning those big gaping holes that Johnson used to run through are now going to look more like pinholes instead of craters. He still has plenty of talent, and not much in the way of a backup, but will need lots of help from those around him to achieve greatness, and I just don't have faith in his supporting cast.
- Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
1,102 yards, 5 TDs, 53 rec, 436 rec yards, 1 rec TDWith new offensive coordinator Mike Martz in the fold, there is excitement surrounding the 49ers offense for the first time since Steve Young retired. Gore has tremendous ability, but the supporting cast around him is questionable at best. His offensive line has some experience, but they have struggled as a unit. And speaking of struggling, Alex Smith looks like a bust in the mold of Heath Shuler. So, with not a lot of holes to run through and the defense focusing on stopping him, it is a wonder that Gore rushes for any yards. The Niners brought in DeShawn Foster in the offseason, who won't push for Gore's job, but will probably get his fair share of carries. Gore has never scored double digit TDs, but is pretty useful out of the backfield. Don't expect him to morph into Marshall Faulk under Martz, but Gore still should top 1,100 yards and 5-7 TDs.
- Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills
1,115 yards, 7 TDs, 18 rec, 184 yards, 0 rec TDs (13 games)>Assuming that nasty hit and run incident that Lynch was involved him doesn't earn him any sort of suspension, Marshawn has the tools to really burst on the scene. He was the model of consistency as rookie runners go, as he ran for at least 60 yards in every game he played. He is also in a run-first offense in Buffalo, partly because that's the way the team has always been, and partly because the passing game stinks. His offensive line is a bunch of big boys, so he should have holes that are plenty big enough to run through. I expect Trent Edwards to make some sort of progress, so that should help Lynch out some. He did lose three weeks to an ankle injury, and he isn't very useful catching passes, but expect Lynch to top 1,300 yards and close in on ten scores.
- Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers
956 yards, 8 TDs, 30 rec, 147 rec yards, 0 rec TDsNot even on the fantasy radar at the start of the season, Grant took the starting job over after injuries and ineffectiveness caused him to be the best option, or at least the next option. But he quickly made it look like it was his job all along, as he almost ran for 1,000 yards in just ten weeks. He also was great at finding the endzone, and should go into 2008 as the unquestioned starter. Grant was also pretty effective as a pass catcher out of the backfield, and regardless of who the QB is in Green Bay I expect him to continue to run the ball effectively. He should continue to be a good fantasy back, but without a full season of running the ball there has to be at least a small bit of concern. Draft him with confidence at this ranking.
- Lawrence Maroney, New England Patriots
835 yards, 6 TDs, 4 rec, 116 rec yards, 0 rec TDsHow did the Patriots throw so many passes and Maroney only caught four the entire season? That is shocking to me. Maroney definitely played second fiddle to the record breaking Pats passing attack in 2007, but showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch. Maroney has had trouble staying healthy in his two seasons, but at least they were minor, nagging injuries that only cost him a couple of weeks each season. He shares the backfield with Kevin Faulk, and doesn't carry the ball 20 times a game. He is a decent option as your second back, but if Maroney is leading your backfield I suspect you will be looking upwards at the leaders in your league all season long.
- Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
602 yards, 4 TDs, 39 rec, 389 rec yards, 1 rec TD (7 games)Brown was enjoying a resurgence in 2007 as he was having a great season before tearing his ACL at the end of October. Unfortunately for Brown, the Dolphins have committed to 2008 being a complete rebuilding process, and the QB and WR position are incredibly young and inexperienced. His offensive line is a work in progress, and he will struggle to find open running lanes throughout the year. He is sure to lose some carries to Ricky Williams, but I don't see him losing the majority of carries to Williams.
- Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns
1,304 yards, 9 TDs, 30 rec, 248 rec yards, 2 rec TDsPicked up by the Cleveland Browns after being released by the Raves, Jamal Lewis had something to prove and did just that as he had his best season since he rushed for 2,000 yards in 2003. He was thought to be written off the fantasy map, but a guy with a chip on his shoulder can surprise you sometimes. Especially a guy who is 245 pounds and running at you with a head of steam. The whole Browns experience was a surprise last season, and I wouldn't be shocked to see these numbers come back to around 1,100 yards and 6 scores as Lewis is inching toward that tragic number for running backs, 30 years old (turns 29 in August)
- Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants
1,009 yards, 4 TDs, 23 rec, 174 rec yards, 2 rec TDs (11 games)Jacobs would rather go around you than through you, but when it comes to the goal line, he usually knows what to do. It seems sometimes he would rather be a finesse runner than the big bruiser that he was built to be, but he is pretty nimble for a guy his size. The Giants found a number of different options while Jacobs was hurt, so Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward should get carries as well. But like I said earlier, when it comes to punching the ball in, Jacobs is like a wolf to a piece of meat, hehttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif sniffs it out and attacks. Expect the yards to stay similar, but the TDs to near double digits.
To get running backs 16-40 head on over to the complete article at Fighting Chance Fantasy.
Tough Decisions - Part 1
Peyton Manning vs. Tony Romo
Even though we recommend waiting on a QB in most cases, this conflict still has to be resolved. In times past, when Peyton was involved in a debate, his ravishing good looks and exceptional acting abilities always put him over the top. But now, he has met his match, Mr. Hollywood himself, Tony Romo. Should the deciding factor be Tony’s dreamy smile or adorable dimples, Peyton’s chiseled abs or rocket arm, or Jessica Simpson? While Romo has a slight edge because of his endearing personality, that’s not the reason were going to tell you to select him. We want you to pick him because he is a better fantasy quarterback.
We expect Romo to trail Brady all year for the league lead in touchdown passes, finishing just one or two behind. In 26 career starts, Romo has 53 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns and is entering his second consecutive season with offensive genius Jason Garrett. Things are only getting better for Romo. To top it off, Romo has always had that indescribable ability referred to as “it”. Watch him play. He consistently amazes me as he always has a trick up his sleeve. He is rarely sacked due to his uncanny ability to avoid the rush and is never afraid to take a chance for the big play. Sure, because of this he may throw a few more picks than Manning, but he will also throw more touchdowns. Last time I checked, high touchdowns are still better than low interceptions. Both quarterbacks are great options, but Romo is the better option. And here’s the kicker, Manning is going before Romo in almost every draft across the country. So if you’re in the market for a big time quarterback, just sit back and let Romo come to you.
LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Adrian Peterson
This is a very common question this year, but it has an extremely simple answer. Yes, Adrian Peterson is amazing and yes he may be one of the greatest young backs we have seen in some time, but when forced to make this call, you still have to go with L.T. Why? For many reasons, first one, being Peterson’s lack of experience. We have to keep in mind Peterson only has 14 career games played. He definitely caught defenses by surprise and entering this year, every opponent he faces will stack the line and force the Vikings to pass. Every team will happily allow Tarvaris Jackson to beat them before they allow A.P. to run all over them. Simply said, the Vikings do not have a pass offense that warrants extra concern from the average defense, which will allow them to use more 8 man fronts. The Vikings were successful last year, but remember, this is a new year and defenses will be far more ready for Peterson and the Vikings offense. Second, would be his susceptibility to injury. Peterson had injuries in college and continued this pattern as a rookie in the NFL missing two games because of a knee injury. L.T., also known as Superman, is the complete opposite. Yes, he did suffer an injury in the 07’postseason, but Tomlinson has a stellar resume, both physically and statistically. Third, the amount of carries A.P. will receive. Minnesota will use Peterson frequently, but by no means will they run their franchise back into the ground. They have the very competent Chestor Taylor sitting on the bench and we expect the veteran to see a large amount of 3rd down opportunities as well as even spell Peterson in some 1st and 2nd down situations.
Don’t take this the wrong way, we fully see Peterson’s natural talent, but when it comes to the fantasy world, L.T. remains the better option. He is on the field almost every play, he is a better receiver, he has other weapons such as Gates and Chambers who force teams to cover the pass and he has proven himself many times over. We even recommend passing on Peterson for the likes of Brian Westbrook and Steven Jackson especially in PPR formats. We projected Peterson to do very well, but we expect Tomlinson, Westbrook and Jackson to end the year with more total yards. The touchdowns will vary, but when it’s all set and done, these three players will have more fantasy points than Peterson in both standard scoring formats and PPR formats.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Are you ready for some football?
Are You Ready For Some Football?
It’s late July and that means that one by one training camps around the league will open up and the buzz of the upcoming season will fill the air.
Teams will hit the weight room, attend meetings, play in scrimmages and probably take on some two-a-days.
Multiple daily practices in the mid-summer heat are the worst part of the year for the players, but it’s one of the best times of the year for fantasy players.
For the next several weeks, we can sit back and consume every morsel of goodness that is training camp news. What rookie has a shot at starting? What vet seems to be losing his skills? What QB will start for Chicago?
Ok, so no one besides Rex and Kyle’s moms really cares about that last question, but the fact remains that training camps go a long way in shaping the NFL Season, as we know it.
The 2 big trades that we’ve seen in the last week will start to take effect as camp begins.
In Washington, Daniel Snyder wasted no time in acquiring Jason Taylor after being hit with the injury bug early in practice. Taylor appears to be ready to play at least 2 more years after originally telling Miami that this would be his final year. Taylor will make an instant impact on a team that had only one player record more than 5 sacks last year. Taylor has averaged 10.5 sacks a year throughout his 11-year career.
Jeremy Shockey also changed addresses this week as he was traded to the New Orleans Saints for draft picks. Shockey immediately boosts the Saints offense by giving Drew Brees another weapon. Last year, the Saints sent out a platoon of Eric Johnson and Billy Miller, so obviously Shockey is a major upgrade.
Kevin Jones wasn’t traded but he has found a new home after spending much of the off-season without a job. The Chicago Bears added the former Virginia Tech RB to compete for the starting tailback job left vacant by Cedric Benson. Jones joins Matt Forte, Garrett Wolfe and the other Adrian Peterson in the crowded Chicago backfield. Jones has more experience, but he’s also recovering from a torn ACL.
You may have also heard that Brett Favre is re-thinking retirement.
In a story that you can’t get away from no matter how hard you try, Favre appears to be intent on forcing the Packers to make a move. If the phone calls to Vikings coaches are any indication, Brett would love to follow Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell and trade in his green jersey for purple. It’s too bad for Brett that there is no chance of that happening.
Green Bay is ready to move on with the Aaron Rodgers era and in doing so, must decide what to do with #4. They certainly can’t release him and risk him going to Minnesota where they would face him at least twice during the year and they can’t bring him in to back up Rodgers. Favre’s selfishness will ultimately end in a trade, possibly to Tampa Bay, where Jeff Garcia is in the doghouse. Coach Gruden has a history with Favre and likes older quarterbacks.
We will continue to follow training camp battles in the weeks to come, but right now we just have to be on the look out for who shows up and who holds out. The All American Touchdown Derbywww.passitdeep.com
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
St. Louis Rams Offense Analysis
One of the most difficult questions to answer as the 2008 NFL season approaches is what will happen with the St. Louis Rams this season? The Rams ranked in the top half of the league in yards of offense for eight straight years until last year when they fell to 24th. Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson were amongst the biggest fantasy disappointments last season and based on average draft position, people are expecting
Offensive Line:
The Rams offensive line was total chaos in 2007 as they used 18 different combinations during the season. The Rams offensive line did suffer a lot of injuries but it may not have been the entire problem. Orlando Pace was injured in the first game last season and missed the entire year but he had also missed eight games in the 2006 season. In those eight games he missed, the Rams averaged 4.4 yards per carry as opposed to 4.2 with him and gave up 22 sacks as opposed to 27 with Pace. He still is an important piece of this offense but his health is still a concern and even if he does play, he will not fix this th entire line. If we compare the offensive lines from 2006 and 2007, the veterans Timmerman and Steussie were both starters in 2006; Timmerman was cut in the off-season last year while Steussie was expected to be a backup and missed most of the season with an injury but will not be back this year. Barron played all 16 games in both years which leaves Richie Incognito as the only lineman that played in 2006 but was injured in 2007 and will be back this year. Incognito played four games last season and in those four games the Rams averaged 3.5 yards per carry and gave up 14 sacks. The linemen playing in those games were Barron, Incognito, Romberg, Brown and McCollum (Gorin played one of those instead of Romberg). Barron, Incognito and Romberg are all expected to start this year while Brown and McCollum will be replaced by Jacob Bell and Orlando Pace. Jacob Bell is an upgrade over Milford Brown but
Steven Jackson had a difficult season and missed five games due to injuries. He was impressive when he came back as he had over 700 yards in the final eight games of the season on 160 carries (4.5 YPC) as well as 28 receptions for over 200 yards. However, if you look more closely at his statistics, you will notice that a lot of his yards came on long carries so his yards per carry average may not be very representative of how he performed. In those eight games,
Marc Bulger:
Bulger was once again injured last season and failed to play a full season once again. He has only played all 16 games in a season once in his career which was in 2006. Last year Bulger had his lowest completion percentage of his career, his lowest number of yards per attempt of his career and his second highest number of interceptions per attempt, all signs of a quarterback who was under more pressure than he is used to. Last season, the Rams allowed 48 sacks but they have allowed on average 46 in the past five years including 49 in 2006. The question is whether or not the sacks allowed truly represent the pressure that was applied on Bulger. It is a guess but in my opinion Bulger had much more pressure on him in 2007 than in 2006 because it is hard to explain such decreases in statistics after he had been pretty consistent for four years. Looking at historical statistics from quarterback who attempted more than 300 passes in three consecutive seasons, quarterbacks who had a decrease in completion percentage similar to Bulger increased it by an average of 3.5% in the next season which means Bulger’s would be about 60.5% in 2008. Looking at similar statistics, his yards per attempt would increase by about 7.5% which means we can expect about 6.8 yards per attempt in 2008 and his interceptions per attempt would decrease by 40% which would give him 0.024 interceptions per attempt. Based on data from 22 quarterbacks, his touchdowns per attempt would be about the same as in 2006. Assuming the Rams once again attempt about 575 passes this season, it would mean Bulger is looking at about 350 completed passes for 3,900 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Historical statistics are only statistics and it does not mean that they will apply to Bulger so we have to look at his situation as well. The Rams added a very solid pass protector in
Torry Holt:
Torry Holt was the least affected by the problems on the offense last season and he is also the most likely to bounce back to the level he was at in previous years. Holt had been a top five receiver in four consecutive seasons until last year when he barely finished out of the top ten. Here is how Holt’s statistics in terms of percentage of the offense compare in the past five seasons:
| Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
2003 | 31.0% | 39.6% | 52.2% |
2004 | 25.3% | 29.7% | 43.5% |
2005 | 26.0% | 30.6% | 39.1% |
2006 | 25.1% | 27.4% | 41.7% |
2007 | 27.9% | 33.4% | 36.8% |
Holt was more important in the passing game last season than he was in previous seasons but the offense struggled so his numbers were lower. Those percentages should remain pretty similar in 2008 and could increase slightly since Bruce’s 55 receptions and 4 touchdowns should be split between Holt, Bennett and Avery. Using the average of those percentages from the past three years and the statistics we projected above for Bulger, Holt is a safe bet to have about 90 to 95 receptions for 1,200 yards and 9 touchdowns but could be more depending on how the hole left by Bruce is filled.
Drew Bennett:
Drew Bennett was a disappointment last season but he is likely to benefit the most from the departure of Bruce. Bennett had three consecutive seasons of over 700 yards on a poor offense in
The Rams were a dominant offense in 2006 and struggled in 2007. The first instinct is to look at how these players performed in 2006 when everyone was healthy but the 2008 team is completely different and the two are not comparable. For 2008, the offensive line is improved, especially in pass protection, but it has little depth and Orlando Pace is still a question mark. The projections in the article above are based on historical statistics and we don’t believe the Rams situation is particularly abnormal compared to other offenses that had similar drops. These projections are lower than most other sites have for Bulger and Jackson and we don’t think either is worth the risk that they carry. In conclusion, if you believe that the Rams offense will be better than last year (like we do), go with the lower risk options in Holt or even Bennett and do not gamble your entire season on Steven Jackson.
Fantasy Impact: Shockey to the Saints
Jeremy Shockey was traded to the New Orleans Saints for second and fifth round draft picks in 2009. In
Jeremy Shockey:
In six seasons in the NFL, Shockey has always been amongst the top ten tight ends in a point per reception scoring system despite missing 13 games and playing through injuries for most of his career. Shockey will also have Pro Bowler Drew Brees as his quarterback who loved throwing to tight end Antonio Gates in
The New York Giants have a lot of weapons on offense and the trade of Shockey should not impact Manning’s production as we saw in the playoffs. Kevin Boss had 9 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown in five games. Boss will be the starting tight end but he is nowhere as talented as Shockey and it would be quite surprising to see him have more than 35 or 40 receptions next season. If you put those two together it means that the wide receivers should be targeted more often even though one could argue that they will be covered better. Manning completed 101 passes in the final two games of the regular season and the four playoff games. He completed 30 to Toomer, 23 to Burress, 17 to Smith, 16 to the running backs and 6 to Tyree. This means that 75% of Manning’s completions were to his wide receivers as opposed to only 55% in the other 15 games and 15% were to running backs as opposed to 21%. The main explanation for the decrease in passes thrown to running backs is that Derrick Ward, who is the best pass catching running back on the Giants, did not play in the post-season. We can assume that the running backs will still catch around 20% of the passes in 2008 but as we had assumed previously, the passes that do not go to Shockey will go to the wide receivers. Look for Burress, Toomer, Smith and Moss to combine for about 180 to 190 receptions. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer should still have about 130 so Steve Smith and Sinorice Moss will battle for those additional 50 to 60 receptions but neither should catch enough to have a fantasy impact.
New York Giants Rushing Offense:
A lot has been said about Jeremy Shockey’s run blocking abilities so we decided to look at statistics to see if this was true. In the 14 regular season games that Shockey missed in his NFL career, the Giants averaged 4.8 yards per carry but we have to be careful since quite a few of those were week 17 games. Last season the Giants averaged 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs which was well-below their regular season average. In 2003, Shockey missed seven games and the Giants averaged 4.0 yards per carry without him and 4.1 with him. Other than last year’s four post-season games against very good teams, there does not seem to be any proof that the Giants are worse in the running game without Shockey.
In the first part of this article we predicted that Shockey would be looking at about 80 receptions for 900 yards and four touchdowns. The Saints spent most of last season looking for a number two receiver behind Colston and it was only in the second half of the season that David Patten emerged in that role. Lance Moore, Terrance Copper, Eric Johnson and Billy Miller are four players that should have very few catches this year and they combined for 122 receptions and eight touchdowns last year. The initial reaction to this trade may be that Colston will not be targeted as often but the counter effect is that he will be more open. Those 122 receptions are plenty to split between Shockey and Meachem, the two new targets for Brees this year. Without those disastrous first four games, Brees would have had 4,600 yards and 36 touchdowns over 16 games and he now has two new targets in Shockey and Meachem. This trade has made us increase Brees’s reward grade from low to medium and now moves him ahead of Tony Romo in our quarterback rankings. Colston will remain at number three in our wide receiver rankings since we already had him quite high compared to other sites but we have lowered Meachem and Patten slightly.
New Orleans Saints Rushing Offense:
The Saints were well-below average last year when running to the right side and the addition of Shockey will likely help right tackle Jon Stinchcomb who is not a very strong run blocker. The player that this will help the most in the Saints running game is Reggie Bush. Bush loves running to the outside and the addition of Shockey will now give him a blocker to seal the end and will allow him to turn the corner more often. For that reason we have increased Bush’s reward grade from medium to high which now moves him up to number nine in our running back rankings (in point per reception leagues) right behind Steven Jackson. This may seem high but Bush has averaged 271 points per 16 games in his first two NFL seasons and now has a better run blocking center in Goodwin as well as a much better run blocking tight end. This could be the year that Reggie Bush breaks out and becomes one of the premiere running backs in the NFL.
Top 10 Sleepers
To be considered in the top 10 sleepers, a player had to be ranked outside the top 12 QBs or TEs and top 30 RBs or WRs in average draft position and also could not have been in our top 10 undervalued players.
#10 Ted Ginn Jr: Everyone knows about Ted Ginn not because of his play on the field but because the Dolphins passed on Brady Quinn to select him. In his rookie season, he only had 34 receptions for 420 yards and 2 touchdowns but he started getting more playing time in the second half of the season and responded well. This season the Dolphins have a new coach, an improved offensive line, McCown should bring more consistency at the quarterback position and Ginn will be the number one receiver. Chambers was traded last season and Marty Booker has been replaced by Ernest Wilford. Someone is going to have to catch some balls on this team and it is between the slow Wilford and the speedy first round pick; Ginn will be the number one target on a team that can only go up.
#9 Mark Clayton: He is one of the candidates that were identified in our statistical analysis to find potential breakout wide receivers. Clayton is in a group that according to that analysis has a 35% chance of improving their statistics from last year by at least 25% and to have over 150 fantasy points. Clayton had a very disappointing season in 2007 but it’s not easy when you have three different quarterbacks throughout the season and injuries on the offensive line. The line should be slightly better than last year even with the retirement of
#8 Ahman Green / Chris Brown: We are not yet sure which of these two will earn the starting job but whoever does could have an exceptional season. The Texans averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season but Duane Brown is an upgrade at left tackle and so is Chris Myers at center. Furthermore, Alex Gibbs plans to install a new zone blocking system as explained in our analysis of the Houston Texans offensive line. Gibbs made the Broncos running game a dominant one from 1995 to 2003 and did the same thing with the Falcons from 2004 to 2006. The Texans will have an above average running game this season and all it will cost to lock up this backfield is an 8th and a 13th round pick. Steve Slaton could get a few carries but Green and Brown are by far the two best backs on this team, as long as they stay healthy.
#7 Tatum
#6 Zach Miller: In our rankings we have players like Scheffler and Daniels ranked pretty high at tight end but it is pretty rare that there is a true sleeper at tight end. If there is going to be one this year, we really like second year Zach Miller. Since 1983, only three tight ends had more receptions in their rookie season than Miller had last year. JaMarcus Russell will most likely be the starter for the Raiders this season and last year he attempted 16 of his 66 passes to Miller. It is a very small sample but over a full season it would mean Miller could be targeted over 100 times. If we project Miller’s statistics from the second half of the season last year over 16 games, he would have been a top ten tight end. The Raiders replaced Jerry Porter with Javon Walker and also added Drew Carter. There are question marks with the top two receivers in Walker and Curry and overall the group of wide receivers is still pretty weak which means that Miller will get plenty of chances.
#5 Selvin Young: The Broncos running back situation is always a mystery but if you correctly pick the starter you will almost certainly get a bargain. Selvin Young was incredible last season with 5.2 yards per carry and there is absolutely no reason to believe that veteran career backup Michael Pittman or fifth round pick Ryan Torain can surpass him. If Young gets more than 250 carries he could easily be a top ten running back. He is currently being drafted in the sixth round on average and although I don’t suggest taking him as your second running back, he is an excellent third running back with a ton of upside.
#4 Marty Booker: After four seasons with the Miami Dolphins, Booker will return to the Chicago Bears where he started his career. The top two receivers with the Bears last season were Berrian and Muhammad and both are now gone. That means there will be about 150 receptions to be split between Booker, Bradley, Hester, Bennett and Lloyd. That might seem like a lot of competition but Bradley and Hester have never had more than 20 receptions while Brandon Lloyd is not much more than a speedy receiver. The
#3 Bobby Engram / Nate Burleson: Last season Matt Hasselbeck passed 225 times for close to 3,000 yards and 22 TDs to his top four wide receivers. The difference this year is that Hackett is gone and Branch is likely to miss at least the first half of the season with an injury. Obomanu might get more looks this season and Branch might come back halfway through the season but even then, someone will have to catch the ball in
#2 Laurent Robinson: Robinson is another player who seems to be very underrated because he is on a bad offense. Most agree that Roddy White will not match his numbers from 2007 and that Joe Horn will probably not see much action in 2008 after requesting a trade. Consider also that Crumpler is no longer with the team which means that either Jenkins or Robinson is going to be targeted much more often. Rookie wide receivers who had between 70 and 110 points improve by an average of 54 percent which means Robinson is looking at about 135 points in point per reception leagues. This alone makes Robinson well worth his draft position and it does not include that the Falcons offensive line is much better in pass protection and that Robinson should now be the number two target in the offense behind Roddy White instead of the number four like last year.
#1 Leon Washington: Washington made the highlights last year with his impressive returns but was not much of a factor on offense.
Monday, July 21, 2008
MLB Injury report
Jermaine DyeDye could miss several days after being hit in the knee with a pitch.Alfonso SorianoIt’s unclear as to when exactly Soriano will return, but it will be this week.Khalil GreeneGreene is day-to-day with a stiff lower back.Carlos GuillenGuillen is out indefinitely as he tends to his wife who is suffering from complications during childbirth.David OrtizBig Papi has homered in 3 straight games during his rehab stint and is expected the rejoin the Sox on the 25th.Troy TulowitzkiTools is expected to return to the Rockies lineup on Monday.Frank ThomasThomas will be out at least 2 more weeks.Ryan ZimmermanZimmerman will rejoin the Nationals on Tuesday.Gary Matthews Jr. It’s possible that Matthews will have season-ending knee surgery.
Week 16 Review in The All American Home Run Derby
Dilldocks continues to occupy our top spot after claiming the 2nd Quarter prize. 283 homeruns is good enough to lead our game, but just by 1 homerun. AllorNothin is well within striking distance with a total of 282 homeruns. #1Philsfan remains in the thick of things with 278 HR. Our 4th place team is whoopers and Mr. Papa Georgio holds down the 5th spot.Our player break down is as follows…1 player with 29 homeruns1 player with 27 homeruns2 players with 25 homeruns1 player with 24 homeruns3 players with 23 homeruns4 players with 22 homeruns2 players with 21 homeruns2 players with 20 homeruns4 players with 19 homeruns5 players with 18 homeruns5 players with 17 homeruns3 players with 16 homeruns8 players with 15 homeruns4 players with 14 homeruns6 players with 13 homeruns5 players with 12 homeruns4 players with 11 homeruns4 players with 10 homeruns5 players with 9 homeruns3 players with 8 homeruns6 players with 7 homeruns5 players with 6 homeruns3 players with 4 homeruns2 players with 3 homeruns3 players with 2 homeruns3 players have failed to go deepRyan Howard still leads the league with 29 homeruns and Adam Dunn is keeping pace with 27 homeruns. Pat Burrell and Chase Utley sit 4 homeruns off the lead while Dan Uggla is 5 back.We have 11 other players over 20 HR including Hanley Ramirez with 23 HR, Rick Ankiel with 22 HR and Josh Hamilton with 21 HR.There are 25 players between 15 and 19 HR. A few of these guys are Derrek Lee and Corey Hart with 15, Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria with 17 and Albert Pujols with 18.We have 23 players in the 10-14 HR group. Nick Markakis and Garrett Atkins lead with way with 14 homeruns each. David Ortiz sits at 13 and looks to return this week and add to that total. Hunter Pence and Torii Hunter each have 12 HR while Adam LaRoche and Alex Gordon have 11.Thirty players have less than 10 homeruns. Ryan Zimmerman has 8 homeruns and should return this week and add to that number. B.J. Upton sits on 6 and has been moved down in the order. Jimmy Rollins is also stuck on 6 and hopes for a big 2nd half. Delmon Young has now hit 4 HR and that’s practically on fire for him. Andruw Jones continues to be a huge bust with just 2 homeruns.
MLB Injury Report
What a week for baseball as the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game kicked off early in the week and gave fans plenty to cheer about.There are 2 robberies to report from Monday Night as Josh Hamilton stole the stage in the first round and then Justin Morneau stole the trophy from Hamilton despite hitting 13 less homeruns on the night.Josh Hamilton wrote another chapter in his amazing comeback story as he won over the fans in New York by stepping to the plate against his 71-year-old pitcher and crushing pitch after pitch deep into the New York night. When the first round had come to a close, Hamilton had set a new record with 28 homeruns in one round including 3 shots over 500 feet. The fatigue of 38 swings in the first round was too much for Hamilton as Justin Morneau defeated him in the Finals, 5-3. It was a proud moment for Canada and the Minnesota Twins as Morneau won his first Home Run Derby title.The All-Star Game proved to be just as exciting on Tuesday as the teams battled for 15 innings before Justin Morneau found himself in the spotlight again as he was able to slide in just ahead of the throw on a Michael Young sacrifice fly and the America League continued their run of dominance with a 4-3 win. We were all left to wonder what would have happened if Morneau were called out and the game went to a 16th inning. Every position and pitcher was used during the marathon and it’s possible that Bud Selig would have faced another nightmare. Business was back on schedule on Thursday when the 2nd half of the MLB season officially kicked off.The Mets were able to run their win streak to 10 games before losing a pair, but they remain baseball’s hottest team with a record of 8-2 over the last 10 games. They find themselves in a deadlock with the Philadelphia Philles for the division lead. The Florida Marlins are right on their heels, but also face a tough start to the 2nd half and could find themselves fading out of contention.As we turn out attention to the NL West, we find an embarrassment to baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the lead with 48-50 records. Each team is 5-5 over the last 10. The Rockies are playing well as of late, but also sport a 5-5 mark over the last 10. They have won 4 in a row after a 1-5 stretch. The 2 worst teams in baseball are holding down the bottom of the division. The San Francisco Giants have lost 9 of the last 10 and the San Diego Padres have come up short in 8 of the last 10, including 6 straight.Speaking of teams that have lost 8 of the last 10, Tampa Bay leads the American League East. The Rays are lucky to be in that position after Boston was swept by the Angels. Don’t look now, but the Yankees appear to be getting hot and should be adding their annual big name via trade any day now. This division should be fun to watch down the stretch.In the AL Central, the White Sox and Twins are tied with 55 wins, but Minnesota is one back in the loss column. The Twins came out of the break on fire as they racked up 20 runs on Texas in 2 games, before suffering a 1-0 loss despite Scott Baker having a perfect game through 5.2 innings. Minnesota pitching has been hot and things could get better if Francisco Liriano has anything to say about it. Liriano is 8-0 with an ERA of just over 2 in his last 10 starts at the Triple-A level. He would provide a huge boost to an already solid rotation if he could maintain those pre-injury numbers with the big club.Plenty to watch for this week as there will be quite a few clubs making the decision to make a move because they are out of contention or stay put because the guys are starting to catch fire.
NFL Vs. THe Dark Night
The Air Assault Begins: 7/21/2008
NFL vs. Dark Knight
Summer is about the -ions. By -ions of course I mean Relaxation and Anticipation. The kids are out of school, and most likely are just mentally rotting with all the partying they are doing and all the Wiffle Ball they are playing. The company you work for most likely has gone to a nice, relaxed dress code and you and your spouse have saved up your vacation time for the week long trip your taking to LBI or Hawaii if you’re so blessed. Summer is the time of year that flat out makes people’s lives worth while. Everything is more laid back, everything is just relaxed. But another thing happens during the summer, when a strange smell begins to form in the air. What’s that smell you ask? Football. The countdown to Week 1 has begun and we, as loyal sport’s fans, are sick with anticipation. Colin Cowherd would contend, with sharp objection to Antonio Vivaldi, “There are two seasons a year: Football season, and waiting for Football season.”
There’s something different about 2008 though. You see, something else happens during summer time every year. Summer marks the release of the mega blockbusters, namely the comic book, fantasy hero movies. Most of them are stupid, overhyped sequels that spend way too much money and make you so angry you stayed up until midnight on a Thursday to be the first to see it. But 2008 is different. As the NFL lingers, with all the fascinating stories popping up as training camp grows near, the only thing on my mind 24 hours a day is an animal. But it’s not a Dolphin, a Bear, a Bengal or any other animal for that matter that is so well represented by various NFL teams. Damnit, I’ve got Bat Fever!
Just admit it. The Dark Knight looks like it’s going to be the best movie you’ve ever seen (ever). I’ve already put the trailer for it in my Top 6 favorite movies ever (Somewhere in there around Punisher, Rocky IV, 300, Rock star and Super Troopers). By the way, what does it mean when a consistent component of my favorite movies is either Mark Wahlberg or the half naked muscle man factor? Ehh, better forget I said anything. Any who, you can’t tell me that you haven’t had flashbacks to yourself at age 13 when you experience all the “changes” your body goes through when you watch that trailer. God, this article is full of Freudian slips. I better balance this out...
Jessica Alba is hot!
Megan Fox is super hot!
Oh the things I would do to Carrie Underwood!
Okay. That should get me back in good with the Catholics.
Here’s the dilemma. What should you be more excited for? Let’s break it down. We’ll compare the upcoming NFL season with The Dark Knight by sorting them into several key dramatic categories. Whichever wins the most categories gets the nod.
Let’s hire that computer girl who only will show her fire red lips on screen as she does the announcing for the MTV Movie Awards. She’s so Resident Evil she’s the only person that can scare me when she says, “Best Female Performance.”
BEST VILLAIN:
NFL: Bill Belichick. Bill Belicheat, the evil mastermind of the NFL. He runs parallel with the typical Mob Boss villain, but he’s also a criminal genius. You know the type. He commits his crimes in plain sight of everyone but does just enough so that people still think he’s a good guy. South Park put it best:
“This is Bill Belichick, coach of the New England Patriots. He’s won three Super Bowls. How? He cheated. He even got caught cheating, and nobody cared.”
Belichick is one of those villains that never seem to go away. You think you’ve beaten him, but he just comes back bigger, better and meaner.
Dark Knight: The Joker. He’s the most notable and most recognizable Batman villain. His one and only goal is to kill the hero. He is dark, mysterious, and sadistic. The guy flat out has a screw loose. A very complex character that takes a truly Class A performance to pull off. To date we haven’t been disappointed.
Advantage: Tight one, but I have to go Belichick and the NFL. The Joker is great, but I tried to keep how remarkable Heath Ledger looks as the Joker outside of my judgment. I guess the real tipping point is the morality tale angle. In the movies, the bad guy can’t win, good has to triumph over evil, but in the NFL, even though he got knocked backward this year, you know Belichick is going to win in the end. His evils transcend the arts.
BEST MARQUEE EVENT:
NFL: The Super bowl. The Super bowl is the biggest event in all of American sports. It’s the ultimate showdown. The Super bowl is littered with celebrities, $1 million commercials, epic video packages and Joe Buck. It’s a week long event that’s always in a hot climate and makes January in Miami look like Spring Break in Cancun. Each night is highlighted with a different rapper’s party and Bill Belichick spends the whole week taping practices regardless of if he’s participating or not.
Dark Knight: I was torn on which event to talk about. I had to decide between the premiere and the opening night Midnight showing at your local theatre. I guess, since it is tradition, I have to go premiere. It’s the opening night extravaganza, the cast and crew as well as all the A-List celebrities will be out for a Monday night of fun in New York. You roll out the red carpet. Access Hollywood, Inside Edition, and E!, they’ll all be there. No doubt they’ll be some pointless activist group out there trying to protest something the Director did wrong, maybe cruelty to bats and Ferrari’s. Don’t worry, no one will be listening to them, they will just get in the way of paparazzi trying to sneak in. Afterwards, there is sure to be an all night after party none of us have any chance of ever getting into and the viewing of the masterpiece is going to be watered down with Cristal and Cocaine bought on Lindsey Lohan’s tab.
Advantage: NFL again, jumping out to a big lead early. Nothing compares to the Super bowl. Though I personally will get more enjoyment out of seeing the nerds dressed up like Batman and Joker while I wait in line for the Midnight showing, disgracing the Super bowl is in fact a sacrilege and God will show no mercy on my soul.
LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE LOSS OF A STAR:
NFL: The NFL lost two big stars after last year, Michael Strahan and Brett Favre. Favre might return, but it’s doubtful he will be with the Packers. So, for the first time in like 45 years the original jewel of the NFL will have another QB under center. The league will survive, but it’s definitely taking a hit from this. Favre can throw 5 interceptions in a game and The Packers could lose by 40 and he’ll still be a more compelling story than Spy gate or Pac man Jones.
Dark Knight: Most of the surviving cast is returning, with the exception of Mrs. Tom Cruise. I’m actually going to go out on a little bit of limb here and say that the movie takes a hit because of this. I thought she was perfect for the role. She has that whole nice, loveable, girl next door quality to her and she’s certainly the hottest girl to ever climb a ladder into a bedroom overlooking a creek. At the same time, she’s a scientologist so you know she can go Travolta on your ass and Saturday Night Fever all over your face until you Grease her all of your money.
Advantage: Dark Knight. Missing Holmes I think is being overlooked in the pre-release hype of Dark Knight, but the NFL lost its biggest hero here, on top of losing the creator of the “Ballin’!” sack dance.
LEGEND MAKING POTENTIAL:
NFL: There are very few stars left in the NFL that have the opportunity to turn in their first legendary performance. Of the four big contenders, the Pats, Colts, Cowboys and Giants, three out of the four quarterbacks have already made their mark. Brady and Peyton are two of the best QB’s of all-time and they already have their rings. Eli got his ring by beating Brady and overcoming his big brother’s shadow, so the only legend left to write really would be Tony Romo actually winning a playoff game with a hot blonde there to see him. He’s 0-2 so far, I think this year should be Britney’s year, she’s getting better (I guess?).
Dark Knight: This one is easy. Heath Ledger, who’s always been a shared spotlight or B-list actor, straps on the Joker’s boots once filled by Big Jack himself. Not only that, Ledger died soon after filming was completed. And now it’s looking like he’s going to clean up post mortem at the Oscar’s, Golden Globes, and even the Valhalla TV Lifetime Achievement Awards live from the Pearly Gates. Ledger could join Bach, Thoreau, Van Gogh and Emily Dickinson on the short list of people whose work achieved legendary status after death.
Advantage: Dark Knight by a mile. Seeing Ledger as Joker is what I’m most pumped about. Somehow, after the performance Christian Bale turned in for Batman Begins, people are more excited about seeing Heath Ledger. Sorry Romo, go cry with your face in Jessica Simpson’s large bust, which is an acceptable consolation prize I feel.
MOMENTUM BUILT FROM HOW LAST EPISODE ENDED:
NFL: Super bowl XLII ended as sort of a culmination of sorts. We got to see one of the greatest upsets in professional sports history. I mean come on, there were people saying that the Giants couldn’t beat the Bills in Week 16 just to get into the playoffs. They lose by a nose to the Pats in Week 17, then turn around and win three road games, two of them in Dallas and Green Bay, and my God the “Little Giants that could” are in the Super bowl! And it didn’t stop there. Those “Little Giants” overcame all odds and actually beat the De Facto best team to ever play on the game’s biggest stage. You can’t write that any better. Here’s the problem. The story plays like the end of an epic movie, one of those movies you don’t make a sequel for. It’s like if they made a sequel to Miracle, the first one was such an inspiring true story that the second one would have no chance to compare. There’s no doubt that this year’s NFL will be suspenseful, that’s what a salary cap does, but I’m really not working off anything that happened in 2007.
Dark Knight: Batman Begins was set up as a typical first installment of a comic book series. You give the background of your hero, cover all the bases established by years and years of comic books, make him question what his purpose is, and then just throw him right in with an enemy that he dispatches relatively easily. Comic book movies are the best at setting up sequels, and I thought Batman Begins did its job, but I wasn’t super pumped for Dark Knight until I saw what Ledger looked like as the Joker.
Advantage: Push. Neither of them spent too much time or had anything spectacular happen that set up the sequel. Sure, the Joker card was sick at the end of the movie, but you weren’t even sure they were going to make another one. And the NFL, well NFL Films always finds a way to get you pumped for the next season.
GREATEST CHANCE OF LEAVING ME WANTING MORE:
NFL: There is one thing about professional sports that you sometimes wish you could change: Everything is symmetrical, nothing carries over. I mean, the media will definitely play up story lines in between seasons and build up rivalries with pure here say, but the players don’t care. If you win the Super bowl, you do your celebrating on the field, and then in the locker room, then you have your parade, get your keys to the city and move on to the next season. There is very little carryover from year to year. And with free agency, you usually see massive turnover from championship teams from year to year. It’s times like this that you wish the NFL could take a page from the WWE, and just be a little scripted every now and then.
Dark Knight: One of the cool things about movies is: they are scripted. It’s funny; there are always two sides to these things. In another column I might say, “One of the cool things about sports is: it’s not scripted.” It’s one of those little tricks you can use to make your points sound better, it’s all about context. Anyway, Dark Knight is obviously scripted. And you know that if the movie does well, which it’s guaranteed to do, Warner Brothers will be foaming at the mouth to pump out a third. So, you know the ending is going to leave you saying, “Holy sh**! When is the next one coming out?” And then two years of anticipation begins and reaches its pinnacle when that first teaser trailer comes out. From there, you openly weep with passion and you furiously try to find your DVD of the Dark Knight that you haven’t touched since you watched it the day it came out.
Advantage: Dark Knight. I’m going to get home from this movie at 3am and not even think about the fact that I have to leave for work in three and a half hours and try to stay awake for a lunch with the COO of the Fortune 500 Company I work for. Well, at least I have another year of college to find a job. Moving on…
LOWEST DISAPPOINTMENT POTENTIAL:
NFL: Even if the Super bowl is the Seahawks vs. the Steelers, and you spend the whole time playing Ping Pong and eating Wings that will take you months to work off (true story), there is always something that makes your religious following of the NFL worth while. It’s all about the journey in the NFL; your overall enjoyment doesn’t rest on the Super bowl. That’s the great thing about sports whose playoffs are single elimination. You’re almost guaranteed to see a game you’ll never forget. You’re almost guaranteed to see a team win a game they had no business winning. In the NFL, a team just winning a playoff game is an accomplishment that can make a career, so every time you turn on a football game, you’re in for something special.
Dark Knight: I know for a cold hard fact I’m way too excited about Dark Knight. It’s nearly impossible for it to amount to everything I think it will. Now, I know Heath Ledger is going to be amazing, and there’s no doubt Christian Bale is great, and Michael Caine as Alfred was some of the most brilliant casting I’ve ever seen. But, I’ve set the bar so high not just for the movie but also for how crazy the Midnight showing is going to be there’s a really good chance I’m going to be disappointed with some aspect of the movie. Prediction on disappointment: Maggie Gyllenhaal.
Advantage: NFL. There are a few things in life that are for certain. Death, taxes, Patriots going undefeated (whoops), USA Basketball winning the Gold (let us pray) and the NFL season not disappointing.
Alright, well, we seem to have a good old fashioned, communist tie. There are three categories for the NFL, three for Dark Knight and a push. Well, at least we can find solace in the fact that you don’t have to choose one over the other. Hell, I have 2 TV’s in the same room of my apartment. I could watch them both at the same time when Dark Knight comes out on DVD!
