St. Louis Rams Offense Analysis

One of the most difficult questions to answer as the 2008 NFL season approaches is what will happen with the St. Louis Rams this season? The Rams ranked in the top half of the league in yards of offense for eight straight years until last year when they fell to 24th. Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson were amongst the biggest fantasy disappointments last season and based on average draft position, people are expecting Jackson to return to his old form but not Bulger. In this article we will try and explain what happened to the Rams last season and try and determine if Bulger, Jackson and Holt can return to fantasy stardom.

Offensive Line:
The Rams offensive line was total chaos in 2007 as they used 18 different combinations during the season. The Rams offensive line did suffer a lot of injuries but it may not have been the entire problem. Orlando Pace was injured in the first game last season and missed the entire year but he had also missed eight games in the 2006 season. In those eight games he missed, the Rams averaged 4.4 yards per carry as opposed to 4.2 with him and gave up 22 sacks as opposed to 27 with Pace. He still is an important piece of this offense but his health is still a concern and even if he does play, he will not fix this th entire line. If we compare the offensive lines from 2006 and 2007, the veterans Timmerman and Steussie were both starters in 2006; Timmerman was cut in the off-season last year while Steussie was expected to be a backup and missed most of the season with an injury but will not be back this year. Barron played all 16 games in both years which leaves Richie Incognito as the only lineman that played in 2006 but was injured in 2007 and will be back this year. Incognito played four games last season and in those four games the Rams averaged 3.5 yards per carry and gave up 14 sacks. The linemen playing in those games were Barron, Incognito, Romberg, Brown and McCollum (Gorin played one of those instead of Romberg). Barron, Incognito and Romberg are all expected to start this year while Brown and McCollum will be replaced by Jacob Bell and Orlando Pace. Jacob Bell is an upgrade over Milford Brown but Bell is not known for his run blocking abilities and will not improve the running game that much. Pace would be an upgrade but if he cannot play he will be replaced by Brandon Gorin, a career backup. Many expect this offense to return to where it was in 2006 but the offensive line in 2008 is completely different than the one in 2006 so injuries to the line were not the only problem last year.

Steven Jackson:
Steven Jackson had a difficult season and missed five games due to injuries. He was impressive when he came back as he had over 700 yards in the final eight games of the season on 160 carries (4.5 YPC) as well as 28 receptions for over 200 yards. However, if you look more closely at his statistics, you will notice that a lot of his yards came on long carries so his yards per carry average may not be very representative of how he performed. In those eight games, Jackson had six carries of over 30 yards for 276 yards. That means his yards per carry average on his other 154 carries was only 2.9. To give a point of comparison, LaDainian Tomlinson only had seven carries of over 30 yards in the entire season for 261 yards and his yards per carry average would still have been 4.1 without those long carries. In 2006, Jackson only had four carries of over 30 yards for a total of 162 yards and his yards per carry average would still have been 4.0 without those. This tells us that Steven Jackson was not particularly good play after play at the end of last season but he had a few very long carries where there was most likely a big hole to run through and it is unlikely that he will have as many of those in 2008 Jackson will probably average about 20 carries a game once again but the offensive line is still pretty bad and you cannot get fooled by the 4.5 YPC in those last eight games as explained above. Our best guess is that Jackson would have at most 4.0 yards per carry but could be less depending on Orlando Pace. Jackson will probably have close to four catches per game as he did in the second half of last season and his touchdowns are likely to increase with a better offense around him. Put all that together and Jackson should get around 290 points in point per reception leagues and 230 in non point per reception leagues but he is a risky pick because of the injuries and the lack of depth on the offensive line.

Marc Bulger:
Bulger was once again injured last season and failed to play a full season once again. He has only played all 16 games in a season once in his career which was in 2006. Last year Bulger had his lowest completion percentage of his career, his lowest number of yards per attempt of his career and his second highest number of interceptions per attempt, all signs of a quarterback who was under more pressure than he is used to. Last season, the Rams allowed 48 sacks but they have allowed on average 46 in the past five years including 49 in 2006. The question is whether or not the sacks allowed truly represent the pressure that was applied on Bulger. It is a guess but in my opinion Bulger had much more pressure on him in 2007 than in 2006 because it is hard to explain such decreases in statistics after he had been pretty consistent for four years. Looking at historical statistics from quarterback who attempted more than 300 passes in three consecutive seasons, quarterbacks who had a decrease in completion percentage similar to Bulger increased it by an average of 3.5% in the next season which means Bulger’s would be about 60.5% in 2008. Looking at similar statistics, his yards per attempt would increase by about 7.5% which means we can expect about 6.8 yards per attempt in 2008 and his interceptions per attempt would decrease by 40% which would give him 0.024 interceptions per attempt. Based on data from 22 quarterbacks, his touchdowns per attempt would be about the same as in 2006. Assuming the Rams once again attempt about 575 passes this season, it would mean Bulger is looking at about 350 completed passes for 3,900 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Historical statistics are only statistics and it does not mean that they will apply to Bulger so we have to look at his situation as well. The Rams added a very solid pass protector in Bell, Pace could return and although he has lost Isaac Bruce, Bulger still has some good receivers in Holt, Bennett and rookie Donnie Avery. In conclusion, based on averages of quarterbacks who had similar drops in performance, Bulger should have about 265 fantasy points in 2008 if he plays all 16 games.

Torry Holt:
Torry Holt was the least affected by the problems on the offense last season and he is also the most likely to bounce back to the level he was at in previous years. Holt had been a top five receiver in four consecutive seasons until last year when he barely finished out of the top ten. Here is how Holt’s statistics in terms of percentage of the offense compare in the past five seasons:

	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
2003	31.0%	39.6%	52.2%
2004	25.3%	29.7%	43.5%
2005	26.0%	30.6%	39.1%
2006	25.1%	27.4%	41.7%
2007	27.9%	33.4%	36.8%

Holt was more important in the passing game last season than he was in previous seasons but the offense struggled so his numbers were lower. Those percentages should remain pretty similar in 2008 and could increase slightly since Bruce’s 55 receptions and 4 touchdowns should be split between Holt, Bennett and Avery. Using the average of those percentages from the past three years and the statistics we projected above for Bulger, Holt is a safe bet to have about 90 to 95 receptions for 1,200 yards and 9 touchdowns but could be more depending on how the hole left by Bruce is filled.

Drew Bennett:
Drew Bennett was a disappointment last season but he is likely to benefit the most from the departure of Bruce. Bennett had three consecutive seasons of over 700 yards on a poor offense in Tennessee including an exceptional season in 2004 when he was a top ten receiver in fantasy leagues. The other receivers on this team are Looker, Hall, Hagans, Caldwell (all four had a total of only 34 receptions last year) and rookie Donnie Avery. Since 2000, the best rookie season for a receiver who was drafted in the first half of the second round in the NFL Draft was when Reggie Brown had 124 fantasy points in a PPR league. The average for receivers drafted in the first half of the second round and who had significant playing time is 90 points. The running backs and tight ends will should total around 140 receptions and as mentioned above Holt will probably get 90 and Avery at the most 35. All of that leaves about 85 for Bennett and the other receivers. Bennett could easily have up to 60 or 65 receptions and be the dangerous receiver that he was in Tennessee a few seasons ago.

Conclusion:
The Rams were a dominant offense in 2006 and struggled in 2007. The first instinct is to look at how these players performed in 2006 when everyone was healthy but the 2008 team is completely different and the two are not comparable. For 2008, the offensive line is improved, especially in pass protection, but it has little depth and Orlando Pace is still a question mark. The projections in the article above are based on historical statistics and we don’t believe the Rams situation is particularly abnormal compared to other offenses that had similar drops. These projections are lower than most other sites have for Bulger and Jackson and we don’t think either is worth the risk that they carry. In conclusion, if you believe that the Rams offense will be better than last year (like we do), go with the lower risk options in Holt or even Bennett and do not gamble your entire season on Steven Jackson.