It’s unfortunate, but every year fantasy players across the country continue to make the same drafting mistakes. So this is my best attempt to help you avoid doing the same in your upcoming drafts. As a Fantasy Football Indepth Platinum subscriber you receive multiple tools to help you succeed, one of which is a thorough analysis of your fantasy team and league. One of our subscribers sent me her draft results and even though she completely dominated her draft using our custom cheat sheets, I was disturbed by the lack of direction some of these other guys were working with. So here goes.
She received the 4th overall pick in a 10 team league that starts 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 3WR’s, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF with a standard scoring system. I was thrilled with her first selection of Brian Westbrook since the Philly offense, for the most part, runs their entire scheme through Westbrook. She somehow landed Willis McGahee with her second pick, I don’t now how he fell, but he did. Her starting backfield consists of two first tier players. This was a great way to start her draft. Anyways, enough ranting about her selections, this article is designed to help us avoid drafting mistakes.
So let’s take a look at my first dilemma, Reggie Bush, who has a current ADP 30.6. In this particular draft, Bush fell to 57th overall pick. I know there are a lot of haters out there and this is probably deserved. Bush has struggled at times, but who is the only sure back in New Orleans entering this year? Who is still a former number 1 overall selection with jaw dropping natural ability? Well, there’s Aaron Stecker, but is he the answer? No! We’ve all heard of Pierre Thomas, but come on, this guy only has 52 career carries. Yes, Deuce will be back and will probably play, but two blown knees do not bode well for his longevity. The answer is Reggie Bush and even though he is coming off of knee surgery, there is no reason to let him fall this far. Bush will see the field frequently, either as a running back or as a receiver. The lesson here is to never pass on exceptional value. One team in this league has Ronnie Brown and Jonathan Stewart as their two starting backs, both of whom were selected well before Bush. This particular team faces a tough road. Thankfully, our subscriber nabbed him with her 6th pick. Bush is a phenomenal third option and she will be in great shape at the running back position.
Second, be careful when selecting your tight end. In this league, Antonio Gates went 27th overall, which in my opinion, is way too high. Gates averaged 9.5 points per game in 07’. This individual passed up on the likes of Brandon Marshall (10.9 ppg), Anquan Boldin (11.6 ppg) and Santonio Holmes (10.9 ppg). He ended up with Marvin Harrison (6.1 ppg) in round 5 as his WR2, an extremely precarious situation. First of all, if you believe Gates is the lone man atop the top tight end list, you are sadly mistaken. Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Dallas Clark are young and on the rise. Take for example Dallas Clark (8.5 ppg), who was selected in round 7 with the 61st overall selection. If this person had passed on Gates and selected Marshall, Holmes, or Boldin, he then would have been able to pick up Clark in a later round. Doing the math, the combination of Clark and one of the three receivers would still average at least 4 more ppg than his Harrison and Gates combo. The subtleties of fantasy football can either make you or brake you. Make you sure you pay attention to the smaller things.
Finally, do not draft a kicker early! This, in reality is probably the most frustrating habit of all because it can so easily be avoided. I don’t how many times I have to repeat myself, but it simply doesn’t make sense. In this particular draft, someone drafted Nick Folk in the 9th round with the 81st selection and Shayne Graham with the 83rd selection. They passed on guys like Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones, and Kevin Smith. Nauseating, isn’t it? I’m sure you agree that all three backs are solid additions to any team. Our subscriber was able to capitalize and take advantage of the stupidities of others by selecting Rudi Johnson as her 4th back.
This annoyingly resilient and flawed behavior is driving me insane. Why? First of all, did anyone draft Mason Crosby or Nick Folk last year? If you say you did, you are a liar! That’s because fantasy kickers are especially unpredictable. “What about the guys like Adam Vinatieri and Shayne Graham, who have had 3 or 4 consecutive solid seasons”, says the stubborn man. Yes, there are kickers who always do well, but let’s compare last year’s top ranked kicker with the 12th ranked kicker. Depending on your scoring format, the top ranked kicker was Mason Crosby and he averaged 8.8 ppg. The 12th ranked kicker was Adam Vinatieri and he averaged 7.4 ppg. The difference between the two is a tiny 1.4 ppg. Is that really worth a 9th round selection? Absolutely not! In reality, kickers are worth absolutely nothing, but unfortunately, we have to draft at least one. So when you do, please make it your last pick. It’s not going to make a difference and at least you won’t make the mistake of passing up solid depth. There’s always a ton of late round gems out there and if you waste an early pick on a kicker, you may be missing out.
There you have it. Avoid those mistakes and you will take the first step in separating yourself from the rift raft. Thanks to this wonderful subscriber, I was able to vent for a short while. Ahhhh, I feel much better. Oh by the way, she ran this draft. Her current roster is:
QB - Matt Hasselbeck
QB – Vince Young
RB - Brian Westbrook
RB – Willis McGahee
RB – Reggie Bush
RB – Rudi Johnson
WR – Chad Johnson
WR – Anquan Boldin
WR – Chris Chambers
WR – Bobby Engram
WR – Anthony Gonzalez
WR – Devin Hester
TE – Tony Scheffler
K – Jason Hanson
DEF – Dallas Cowboys
If you notice, her team is stocked with legitimate talent, especially at running back. Yet, she was still able to go after a couple of high risk yet higher reward players in Devin Hester and Vince Young. Kudos on the great draft!
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Drafting Trends To Avoid
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Candy -6/26
| June 26th, 2008 JunkyardJake.Com |
Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals, SS
In his first extended major league assignment, Aviles is certainly making a favorable impression. After taking over the shortstop job from the remotely hitting Tony Pena, Aviles has stepped in with 3 HRs and a .339 average in 16 games. Aviles success is not really too surprising, as he has improved consistently over the past three seasons at the AAA level. He had 8 HR and a .264 average in 2006, then improved to 17 HRs and a .295 average in 2007. Before his callup, he had hit 10 homeruns in 51 games for AAA Omaha. He looks like he could offer nice power at the SS position, so he makes sense even in a mixed league format.
Available in 47% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins, SP
Slowey is one of those underrated pitchers that can produce surprising good results, despite lacking an awe-inspiring fastball. This young hurler normally throws fastballs in the high 80's, and also throws a curveball, slider and a changeup. What makes Slowey a solid pitcher, is that no matter what he throws, they generally go exactly where he wants them to. He was knocked around a little during his short major league trial in 2007, but his minor league stats were very impressive that year - 133 innings, a 1.89 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and only 18 walks. He did get bombed for 8 runs versus the White Sox a few weeks ago, but over all, he has had 4 quality starts in his last six outings.
Available in 59% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals, OF
After failing to crack single digits on the homerun scale from 2004 through 2007, it's easy to see why DeJesus has never been known for his power hitting prowess. For some reason he has been cranking out more dingers this year - he already has 8, and is finally on pace to exceed the magic singe-digit barrier. DeJesus is also delivering the solid batting average that was expected from him after last season's dropoff to .259. For the season, he is at .305, and has had equal success against lefties (.295 BA) and righties (.310 BA).
Available in 43% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves, SP
We know the Braves organization has a long history as a pitcher-producing factory, but even they have to be slightly surpised by the sudden turnaround in the fortunes of Charlie Morton. Before 2008, Morton was roming around the Braves minor league system walking everybody, and typically producing an ERA of around 5.00, with an ugly WHIP. After working on his mechanics, 2008 was a completely story. At AAA Richmond before his callup, Morton had a 2.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He has decent stuff, including a 90 MPH sinking fastball, and a solid curveball, so Morton is worth keeping an eye on if he can prove that his improved command is not a fluke.
Available in 75% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Jeff Clement, Seattle Mariners, C
Clement was called up from the minors in May, and didn't accomplish much, but the Mariners say that they are sticking with him this time around. I guess we can believe that when we see it, but in any event, he is definitely worth considering for your fantasy squad right now if you are thin at the catcher position. Clement grades very high on the power scale, and has been an especially prolific HR hitter in the minors during 2008. After 20 HRs in 2007 for AAA Tacoma, the young catcher has 14 in only 47 games this year. (This translates into about 37 HRs over a typical minor league season.)
Available in 71% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Other Players To Consider:
Jeff Keppinger,Cincinnati Reds,SS
Available in 64% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Kelly Shoppach,Cleveland Indians,C
Available in 81% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Chris Iannetta,Colorado Rockies,C
Available in 61% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Seth McClung,Milwaukee Brewers,SP
Available in 80% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Chris DavisTexas Rangers,3B
Available in 95% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
The Power of "4"
The Power of “4”
When Alfonso Soriano hit 39 HR in 2002, he provided power numbers from a 2nd baseman, which hadn’t been seen in quite awhile. Soriano was eventually moved into the outfield, once again leaving a power void in the middle infield.
The resurgence of the power hitting 2nd baseman has begun and four players on pace for great years. Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler are all on track to finish with 25+ HR and 90+ RBI, with Utley and Uggla aiming higher.
Brandon Phillips has 13 HR and 43 RBI. He has the lowest RBI total of the group, but finished out last year with 94 RBI to go along with 30 HR. His .271 average is also the lowest of the four players mentioned but he’s in a lineup with Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce. Look for him to get hot after the break.
Ian Kinsler has the lowest HR total of the group with 12, but he boasts the highest batting average, hitting .305 with 47 RBI. It’s Kinsler’s run total that has been the most impressive. He’s rounded the bases 64 times, which is good for 2nd best in the league.
Chase Utley certainly isn’t a surprise anymore, but his power seems to be even better than previous seasons. He’s led the MLB in homeruns for the majority of the year and currently sits in 2nd with 22 bombs. He’s also 4th in the MLB in RBI with 63. His .291 average and 57 runs make him a very well rounded player.
Dan Uggla has become the blue print for a power hitting 2nd baseman this year. His hot streak of late has allowed him to surpass Utley and take the MLB lead in HR with 23. He’s 9th in the league with 57 RBI and has 57 runs to go with his .294 average.
The Reds and Rangers aren’t likely to be in contention when the playoffs roll around, but look for Utley and Uggla to battle it out for the NL East title. Both the Phillies and Marlins know that the added bonus of having a power hitting 2nd baseman could provide just the boost needed to make a postseason run.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
White Sox Musings
We all know that the Chicago White Sox were swept by their cross town rivals this past weekend! What most of you don't know (unless you're from Chicago) is that the "cry babies" on the south side couldn't go back to the Cell without having some crass parting words for the Chicago Cubs organization and their fans!
Listed below are some parting comments made by Ozzie Guillen & crew before they offically crawled their way back to "The Cell" with their Bibs, Rattlers & Diapers on!
Ozzie Guillen: "The rats at Wrigley Field have gotten bigger, they must be lifting weights".
A.J. Pierzynski: "Cubs Fans are all idiots".
John Danks: "Their Clubhouse smells like someone urinated in it"!
Too bad the rest of the organization didn't have a s much class as their GM Kenny Williams! Oh well, I guess they'll NEVER get used to being eternally known as "The Other" team that plays in Chicago.
Go Cubs!
http://www.letsgodeep.com/
Monday, June 23, 2008
MLB Injury Report: 6/22/2008
Take it Deep: www.letsgodeep.com & www.passitdeep.com
Injury Report 6-22-08
Chipper Jones
Jones will sit out his 3rd straight game due to his quad. He should return soon.
Eric Byrnes
Byrnes should be back with Arizona very soon and he’s had plenty of time on the DL to recover.
Hideki Matsui
Matsui had his knee drained recently, but isn’t expected to land on the DL.
Hank Blalock
Blalock has been on his rehab assignment for 3 days and should rejoin the big club early in the week.
Albert Pujols
Pujols seems to be recovering nicely and a return date is scheduled for Thursday.
Alfonso Soriano
Soriano should be back in time for the Cubs Vs. White Sox Series at the Cell this weekend!
Week 12 Review from The All American Home Run Derby
Take it Deep: http://www.letsgodeep.com/
Week 12 Review
Dan Uggla now leads the Majors with 23 homeruns and fellow 2nd baseman Chase Utley is just one shy of his mark. Ryan Braun, Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez all have 20 HR.
Sixteen players have between 15 and 19 round trippers. Hanley Ramirez represents the middle infield with 16, while Ryan Howard(19) and Pat Burrell(18) give the Phillies 3 players in the Top 9.
The 10-14 HR group has 28 members. Miguel Cabrera(10) remains at a snails pace, but Corey Hart(11) has turned around a slow start. Joey Votto(12) and Brandon Phillips(13) show that Dunn and Griffey aren’t the only power hitters in Cincy and ARod(14) continues to climb the leaderboard.
Thirty players comprise the 5-9 HR crew. Eric Byrnes(6), Vernon Wells(7), Matt Holliday(8) and Brad Hawpe(9) are all looking to make up for time lost on the DL. Khalil Greene(7) is showing that last year’s HR total was just a fluke and Justin Upton(9) is out to prove that he’s the real deal.
The fifteen players with a total of 5 or less HR continue to disappoint. Not surprisingly, 10 of the guys have spent time in the minors or injured, but Kosuke Fukudome(5) and Delmon Young(1) can’t use that excuse.
The only players that have failed to go deep are Josh Field, who is still in the minors, and Victor Martinez, who is out until after the break. Barry Bonds will no longer be mentioned barring his return.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Is Strength of Schedule worth worrying about?
Strength of schedule is one of the many factors that fantasy football players often include in their player rankings to try and get an edge over their opponents. One of the problems with strength of schedule however is that there is so much parity in the NFL that a bad run defense can become one of the best ones in the following year. This article will consider statistics from the past four seasons and will try and determine whether or not strength of schedule is one of the factors worth worrying about in fantasy football.
The first step for this analysis was to determine how much defensive statistics vary from year to year. In order to do this I used the “points allowed by position” statistics which tell us how many fantasy points each team allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in a given season. The goal was to find the degree of correlation between the points each team allowed in two consecutive seasons. Using statistics from 2003 through 2007 here are the formulas that predict the most accurately each team’s points allowed by position for the next season:
| | Formula |
| QB | Next Year Pts Allowed = 214 + 0.223 x Previous Year Pts Allowed |
| RB | Next Year Pts Allowed = 303 + 0.196 x Previous Year Pts Allowed |
| WR | Next Year Pts Allowed = 400 + 0.230 x Previous Year Pts Allowed |
These formulas show us that it is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform in the upcoming season as only 20% to 25% of the previous year’s statistics help us predict next year’s statistics. For example, the Cleveland Browns were the worst passing defense last season by allowing 333 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but according to the above formula you can expect them to allow only 288 in 2008. For those who doubt these formulas, of the ten defenses that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2006 only two remained in the bottom ten in 2007 and three were in the top ten.
The next step was to use these numbers and determine each team’s strength of schedule by position for the 2008 season. The following charts show the three easiest and the three hardest schedules for each position as well as the multiplier which shows how much easier or harder their schedule is compared to the league average:
| Easiest Schedules | |||||
| QB | RB | WR | |||
| WAS | 1.008 | MIN | 1.017 | WAS | 1.016 |
| PHI | 1.007 | CAR | 1.015 | SF | 1.015 |
| TB | 1.007 | NO | 1.015 | NYG | 1.009 |
| Hardest Schedules | |||||
| QB | RB | WR | |||
| SD | 0.989 | CIN | 0.980 | SD | 0.985 |
| NE | 0.991 | NYG | 0.983 | NO | 0.988 |
| DEN | 0.993 | PIT | 0.983 | DEN | 0.989 |
These numbers show us that the difference is less than 4% between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. For example the Minnesota Vikings have the easiest schedule for running backs but we can expect the defenses they will face to allow only 1.7% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average. This means that if you project Adrian Peterson to have 300 fantasy points, his easier schedule would mean you can expect him to have 305 fantasy points. There are so many factors in fantasy football and fantasy players try and include as many as possible in their rankings but I believe these statistics show that projected strength of schedule is one that is almost negligible.
There is one factor that is rarely looked at that I believe is much more important than projected strength of schedule and that is the previous season’s strength of schedule. If you think about it, it does not make much sense that it is more common to try and predict how good a player’s opponents will be next season than looking at how good his opponents were last season. The following charts are very similar to the ones shown previously but in this case they will show the three teams who had the easiest and hardest schedules in 2007 based on 2007 statistics:
| Easiest Schedules | |||||
| QB | RB | WR | |||
| PIT | 1.055 | MIN | 1.086 | SEA | 1.081 |
| TB | 1.045 | GB | 1.072 | SF | 1.078 |
| ARI | 1.040 | KC | 1.060 | PIT | 1.058 |
| Hardest Schedules | |||||
| QB | RB | WR | |||
| DEN | 0.940 | BUF | 0.936 | DEN | 0.947 |
| JAX | 0.952 | NYJ | 0.938 | SD | 0.950 |
| NO | 0.959 | CIN | 0.946 | TEN | 0.951 |
As you can see these numbers vary much more than the ones shown previously and it is quite normal because instead of applying the formulas that only take into account 20% to 25% of the 2007 statistics we just used the 2007 statistics. The difference is quite remarkable between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. Ben Roethlisberger for example had 306 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allowed on average 290.1 fantasy pts while the league average is 274.9. If you divide 306 by 1.055 you obtain 290 fantasy points, Ben Roethlisberger’s estimated number of fantasy pts in 2007 had he faced average defenses. If you do the same thing for Jay Cutler who had 267 points with the hardest schedule for quarterbacks, his adjusted number of fantasy pts for 2007 is 284. This means that Roethlisberger who seemingly was much superior to Cutler last season in fact only had six more points than him if we adjust for strength of schedule.
Now these multipliers are not perfect because some would argue that for example
Defenses change so much from year to year that it is not very useful to look at a player’s strength of schedule based on the previous year’s defensive statistics. Certain people do try to adjust defensive statistics based on changes made in the off-season but it is such a small factor that you are much better spending your time on predicting the offensive players’ statistics. However, looking at the previous year’s strength of schedules to adjust player statistics will allow you to compare players much more accurately and could help you explain a few things that will give you an edge over other fantasy football players in your draft.
