QB Week 3 Progress Report

Tom Brady

Team: Patriots

Last game: 17-27 loss vs. Eagles

Results: DNP…Brady missed yet another preseason game, but says he’ll be ready for the opener.

Tony Romo

Team: Cowboys

Last game: 23-22 win vs. Texans

Results: 15-19, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT…This was a very solid performance for Romo and he appears ready for the season.

Peyton Manning

Team: Colts

Last game: 7-20 loss vs. Bills

Results: DNP. He has yet to test out his knee.

Ben Roethlisberger

Team: Steelers

Last game: 12-10 win vs. Vikings

Results: 10-17, 65 yds…Big Ben gave way for Leftwich to have an extended look in this one.

Derek Anderson

Team: Browns

Last game: 6-26 loss vs. Lions

Results: DNP. He’s still sitting out due to his head injury.

Drew Brees

Team: Saints

Last game: 13-0 win vs. Bengals

Results: 14-22, 199 yds, 1 TD…Brees will be one of the best again this year.

Matt Hasselbeck

Team: Seahawks

Last game: 17-18 loss vs. Chargers

Results: DNP. Frye got the look in this one.

Kurt Warner

Team: Cardinals

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Raiders

Results: 2-4, 40 yds…The best thing for Warner was Leinart’s 3 INT.

Carson Palmer

Team: Bengals

Last game: 0-13 loss vs. Saints

Results: 11-16, 105 yds…This doesn’t say much without Housh and Chad on the field.

Eli Manning

Team: Giants

Last game: 7-10 loss vs. Jets

Results: 10-17, 113 yds…It’s tough to gauge Eli when Plax isn’t on the field.

Philip Rivers

Team: Chargers

Last game: 18-17 win vs. Seahawks

Results: 11-21, 143 yds…So far, the knee is holding up.

Donovan McNabb

Team: Eagles

Last game: 27-17 win vs. Patriots

Results: 13-17, 180 yds, 1 TD…McNabb looked very efficient in his most extended preseason game.

David Garrard

Team: Jaguars

Last game: 23-17 win vs. Buccaneers

Results: 10-16, 118 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT…This was a very solid showing for Garrard. If he plays that way the whole year, the Jags will be near the top of the AFC.

Marc Bulger

Team: Rams

Last game: 24-10 win vs. Ravens

Results: 18-25, 182 yds, 2 TD…This looks like the Bulger of old.

Jay Cutler

Team: Broncos

Last game: 24-27 loss vs. Packers

Results: 6-13, 115 yds, 2 TD…Cutler didn’t complete many passes but he certainly made the most of them.

Jon Kitna

Team: Lions

Last game: 26-6 win vs. Browns

Results: 9-11, 98 yds…Kitna was accurate and more importantly he didn’t turn the ball over.

Jeff Garcia

Team: Buccaneers

Last game: 17-23 loss vs. Jaquars

Results: 11-18, 79 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT…Garcia can’t be happy about this performance, but he won’t be losing his job over it.

Jason Campbell

Team: Redskins

Last game: 3-47 loss vs. Panthers

Results: 6-10, 39 yds…It was not a good game for Campbell, as the score indicates.

Matt Schaub

Team: Texans

Last game: 22-23 loss vs. Cowboys

Results: 15-27, 166 yds, 1 TD…Schaub wasn’t very accurate but he’ll be huge for Houston if he can stay healthy.

Tarvaris Jackson

Team: Vikings

Last game: 10-12 loss vs. Steelers

Results: DNP. He’s still nursing his knee.

Vince Young

Team: Titans

Last game: 3-17 loss vs. Falcons

Results: 9-18, 102 yds, 1 INT…Standard Vince here. He has yet to turn into a complete QB.

Jake Delhomme

Team: Panthers

Last game: 47-3 win vs. Redskins

Results: 11-19, 159 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT…So far, so good for Delhomme.

Aaron Rodgers

Team: Packers

Last game: 27-24 win vs. Broncos

Results: 18-22, 193 yds, 1 TD…This is exactly what Rodgers needed to get fans to forget about Brett Favre.

Sage Rosenfels

Team: Texans

Last game: 22-23 loss vs. Cowboys

Results: 4-8, 29 yds…There’s not much to report here as he wasn’t given much playing time.

Damon Huard

Team: Chiefs

Last game: 0-24 loss vs. Dolphins

Results: 3-7, 26 yds, 1 INT…Ouch.

Chad Pennington

Team: Dolphins

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Chiefs

Results: 11-15, 94 yds, 1 TD…Short passes and a high completion percentage are exactly what Miami fans can get used to seeing.

Brian Griese

Team: Buccaneers

Last game: 17-23 loss vs. Jaquars

Results: 7-11, 71 yds…He has proven that he can be solid in relief of Garcia.

Josh McCown

Team: Dolphins

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Chiefs

Results: DNP…McCown is probably 4^th in line right now.

Quinn Gray

Team: Colts

Last game: 7-20 loss vs. Bills

Results: 8-16, 158 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT…Gray will find himself buried on the depth chart after this game.

Chris Redman

Team: Falcons

Last game: 17-3 win vs. Titans

Results: 9-11, 83 yds…Redman was good enough to lock up the backup spot and will take over if Ryan struggles.

Kyle Boller

Team: Ravens

Last game: 10-24 loss vs. Rams

Results: DNP. Flacco was given a long look in this one.

Joey Harrington

Team: Falcons

Last game: 17-3 win vs. Titans

Results: DNP…It’s not a good sign when you’re sitting out preseason games and you’re not the starter.

Trent Edwards

Team: Bills

Last game: 20-7 win vs. Colts

Results: DNP. The Bills let Losman handle this one.

Gus Frerotte

Team: Vikings

Last game: 10-12 loss vs. Steelers

Results: 13-19, 133 yds, 1 INT…He started in place of Jackson and struggled.

Brodie Croyle

Team: Chiefs

Last game: 0-24 loss vs. Dolphins

Results: 12-21, 110 yds, 1 INT…It wasn’t a good outing, but he’s clearly the best of the KC options.

Cleo Lemon

Team: Jaguars

Last game: 23-17 win vs. Buccaneers

Results: 9-12, 56 yds…No INT’s is key here. If he finds himself in the game, he’ll need to take care of the ball.

Kellen Clemens

Team: Jets

Last game: 10-7 win vs. Giants

Results: 9-12, 83 yds…Clemens turned in numbers very close to Favre, so the Jets have to be happy about that.

Trent Green

Team: Rams

Last game: 24-10 win vs. Ravens

Results: DNP. Kind of concerning since the Rams played 3 QB.

Luke McCown

Team: Buccaneers

Last game: 17-23 loss vs. Jaguars

Results: 11-19, 104 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT…He was the best of the Bucs quarterbacks.

Todd Collins

Team: Redskins

Last game: 3-47 loss vs. Panthers

Results: 9-15, 79 yds…He was the most impressive of the Washington QBs, or is it the least unimpressive?

Shaun Hill

Team: 49ers

Last game: 37-30 win vs. Bears

Results: 6-7, 60 yds…Hill was effective but O’ Sullivan has clearly taken the reigns.

JP Losman

Team: Bills

Last game: 20-7 win vs. Colts

Results: 13-19, 108 yds…JP did nothing to prove that he should be starting.

Rex Grossman

Team: Bears

Last game: 30-37 loss vs. 49ers

Results: 1-4, 6 yds…Lovie made the right call.

Kyle Orton

Team: Bears

Last game: 30-37 loss vs. 49ers

Results: 10-17, 147 yds, 2 TD…Orton showed that he can manage the game and give Chicago the best chance to win

Matt Leinart

Team: Cardinals

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Raiders

Results: 4-12, 24 yds, 3 INT…This is the game that lost him his job.

JaMarcus Russell

Team: Raiders

Last game: 0-24 loss vs. Cardinals

Results: 14-28, 140 yds, 1 INT…This could be an average game for Russell this year.

Alex Smith

Team: 49ers

Last game: 37-30 win vs. Bears

Results: 6-17, 83 yds…Smith has a lot of work to do if he ever wants to start again.

Brady Quinn

Team: Browns

Last game: 6-26 loss vs. Lions

Results: 14-24, 106 yds…Quinn looked good, but then again so did Ken Dorsey.

John Beck

Team: Dolphins

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Chiefs

Results: DNP…Beck is 3^rd on the depth chart.

Billy Volek

Team: Chargers

Last game: 18-17 win vs. Seahawks

Results: 3-9, 33 yds…This couldn’t be any less news worthy.

Drew Stanton

Team: Lions

Last game: 26-6 win vs. Browns

Results: DNP. Meanwhile Dan Orlovsky was very solid. Not a good sign.

Matt Ryan

Team: Falcons

Last game: 17-3 win vs. Titans

Results: 15-21, 102 yds, 1 TD…Ryan showed that he can be efficient and not make mistakes.

Brian Brohm

Team: Packers

Last game: 27-24 win vs. Broncos

Results: 0-4…This is not what Green Bay wants to see.

Joe Flacco

Team: Ravens

Last game: 10-24 loss vs. Rams

Results: 18-37, 152 yds, 1 TD…Flacco was given a whole game and he wasn’t amazing, but he wasn’t terrible either.

Chad Henne

Team: Dolphins

Last game: 24-0 win vs. Chiefs

Results: 2-7, 14 yds, 1 INT…Not a good showing for Henne, but he’s clearly the backup.

Brett Favre

Team: Jets

Last game: 10-7 win vs. Giants

Results: 9-12, 96 yds…Brett continues to settle in and has looked solid so far.

J.T. O’Sullivan

Team: 49ers

Last game: 37-30 win vs. Bears

Results: 7-8, 126 yds, 1 TD…O’ Sullivan looked calm and composed and solidified his spot as the starter.

Tyler Thigpen

Team: Chiefs

Last game: 0-24 loss vs. Dolphins

Results: 1-5, -5 yds, 1 INT…No comment.

Troy Smith

Team: Ravens

Last game: 10-24 loss vs. Rams

Results: DNP. Flacco played the whole game.

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Top 10 Overvalued Players

#10 Santonio Holmes: Holmes had a very good season in 2007 finishing the year as the 24th best WR in PPR scoring while playing in only 13 games. However, historically wide receivers that have such an improvement in their second NFL season tend to disappoint in their third season. Holmes went from 143 fantasy points in his rookie season to 239 fantasy points per 16 games in his second season, a 67% improvement. 17 WRs had between 200 and 280 pts in their second year and improved by at least 20% over their rookie year's point per 16 games numbers. Their average decrease in their 3rd year is 10% and only six improved. The concern is that six of them had a decrease of more than 20% which is what makes Holmes a high risk player. Ward will be fully healthy this season and the Steelers also added Limas Sweed, the tall wide receiver that Roethlisberger wanted. Holmes will likely put up similar receptions and yards numbers per game as he did last season but he is very unlikely to have 8 touchdowns in 13 games like he did last year.

#9 Matt Hasselbeck: It is quite abnormal for a quarterback to have career high numbers like Hasselbeck did at 32 years old and those numbers should decrease in 2008. There are 13 quarterbacks who improved their performance over their two previous seasons by at least 10% between the ages of 30 and 34 years old and attempted at least 400 passes in the next season. Their average decrease in fantasy points was 13% in the next season. Hasselbeck was not any better last season than he was in his three previous seasons but he had more fantasy points because he attempted a lot more passes. This season the addition of Mike Wahle means the Seahawks will run more often in goal line situations and the much weaker group of wide receivers should also hurt Hasselbeck’s numbers. His average draft position is currently seventh and many have him ranked in the top five, much too early for him in our opinion.

#8 Michael Turner: Michael Turner was one of the biggest free agent signings in 2008 and like many others, it is difficult to project how he will perform this season. Turner is currently being drafted somewhere between 18 and 21 in most drafts but in our opinion there are simply too many question marks for him to be ranked that high. Besides the obvious concern that he has never carried the ball more than 80 times in a season, there is the concern that he will be part of a running back by committee this season. The Falcons did sign Turner to a 34.5 million deal but they also have Jerious Norwood who has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons. The Falcons only ran the ball 354 times last season and even if that number increases to 375 or 400, Norwood will have at least 125 or 150 of those which leaves Turner with about 250 carries. Furthermore, the Falcons have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The only addition to the line in the off-season was first round pick Sam Baker and he is considered a much better pass protector than a run blocker. Overall, Turner has never been a starter in the NFL, he is on a bad offense that will be using a running back by committee and is on a team that did not do much to improve its offensive line in the off-season; he is simply not worth a top 20 pick at running back.

#7 Chris Cooley: Cooley has been a perfect example of consistency at the tight end position with at least six touchdowns in each of his first four NFL seasons and between 700 and 800 yards in his last three. We are going out on a limb by having him in our top ten of overvalued players after he has shown excellent consistency but we are concerned about new Head Coach Jim Zorn’s plans. The Redskins had needs on defence and on the offensive line but yet used their first three picks in the draft to select two wide receivers and a tight end. As much as Zorn says that Cooley will still be a factor this season, he will not match last season’s numbers with three new receiving targets for Campbell to throw the ball to.

#6 Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger is the second Steelers player in our top ten and like Holmes it is a concern about touchdowns. Last season the Steelers had 34 passing and only 9 rushing touchdowns. Since 2002, 12 teams had at least 25 passing touchdowns in a season with at least 70% of their offensive touchdowns being passing touchdowns. The average decrease in percentage of passing touchdowns was 13% which would mean only 69% of the Steelers touchdowns should be through the air in 2007. If we assume that the Steelers once again have 43 offensive touchdowns it would mean Roethlisberger would have only 29 passing touchdowns, down from last season’s 33. If you also consider that the Steelers lost one of the best guards in the NFL in Alan Faneca and that they had the easiest schedule for quarterbacks last season, it makes Roethlisberger a risky pick and an overvalued player

#5 Steven Jackson: The Rams offense had to deal with injuries all of last season and it was the main reason for the team’s struggles. The line will be improved this year with everyone healthy and the addition of Jacob Bell at left guard but even with all that, Jackson should not be drafted fourth overall this season. As good as Jackson was in 2006, he was barely a top ten running back in 2005 and was only 15th last season. Jackson is a very talented back and he will get close to 300 carries and above 4.0 yards per carry once again but he is on a bad offense and will not get the touchdown numbers to be worth a top five pick. We have Jackson as the fifth best running back in our projections but he is a high risk player and as we have said many times, you are looking for a safe option with your first round pick and Jackson is far from being one.

#4 Larry Johnson: Similar to Jackson, Larry Johnson is a talented player who was once on a very good offense but is now on a bad one. The Chiefs offensive line is a big question mark with three starters who have never played an NFL game. The line should be better than last season but none of the new starters are particularly good run blockers so it will not help Johnson as much as many think it will. Johnson will still get a lot of touches but there are injury concerns and there is no way that he will come close to his touchdown numbers from 2004 and 2005 with the current offense. Johnson is another player who is being drafted too high because of his past and many fantasy football players fail to look at the current situation in Kansas City to realize that no one could be a top ten or even top fifteen running back with that offense.

#3 Carson Palmer: Many will be surprised to see Palmer at number three on our list but the Cincinnati offense is not what it was two or three years ago. Palmer was the ninth best quarterback last season and twelfth in fantasy points per game but is still being drafted at number five this season. There is no reason to believe that Palmer will be a top five quarterback this season with Chad Johnson and Levi Jones unhappy and requesting a trade. Even the best case scenario that both play for the Bengals this season, it is quite unlikely that they will perform as well as they did in the past. It simply does not make sense that people are expecting Palmer to be better than last season even though the offense did not improve in the off-season and two of the most important players on this offense are unhappy.

#2 Braylon Edwards: Edwards is very talented but last season was his first good one and he now has a lot of expectations to live up to. Many players like Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Irvin, Muhsin Muhammad, Steve Smith and Torry Holt had a decrease in performance after their first good season in the NFL. No matter which way we look at it, the average decrease for wide receivers similar to Edwards is about 15%. It is very easy to explain why this could very well happen to Edwards as well and it is because of his touchdown heavy production last season. Of the 24 wide receivers that had over 13 touchdowns in a season and played at least 14 games in the following season, only 12 had over 10 touchdowns the following year. Their average decrease in touchdowns was 42% which would mean Edwards would have about nine or ten this year; a drop like that would make Edwards about the tenth best receiver this season.

#1 Frank Gore: Gore is the third running back in our top ten who disappointed last season and that everyone expects to bounce back to the level he was at previously even though there are no signs that he will. Gore was the ninth best running back in points per 16 games last season but is being drafted as the sixth best this season. This could make sense for certain running backs but it does not for Gore in part because the 49ers offensive line will be worse in run blocking with the loss of Justin Smiley and Larry Allen. Furthermore, Mike Martz offenses in the NFL have averaged 60 to 70 carries less than they did the season before and after he arrived, not very promising for Gore. He had an exceptional season in 2006 and although he is very talented, question marks on the offensive line and with the Mike Martz offense make Frank Gore the most overvalued fantasy player in our opinion for the 2008 season.

Is Strength of Schedule worth worrying about?

Strength of schedule is one of the many factors that fantasy football players often include in their player rankings to try and get an edge over their opponents. One of the problems with strength of schedule however is that there is so much parity in the NFL that a bad run defense can become one of the best ones in the following year. This article will consider statistics from the past four seasons and will try and determine whether or not strength of schedule is one of the factors worth worrying about in fantasy football.

The first step for this analysis was to determine how much defensive statistics vary from year to year. In order to do this I used the “points allowed by position” statistics which tell us how many fantasy points each team allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in a given season. The goal was to find the degree of correlation between the points each team allowed in two consecutive seasons. Using statistics from 2003 through 2007 here are the formulas that predict the most accurately each team’s points allowed by position for the next season:

	Formula
QB	Next Year Pts Allowed = 214 + 0.223 x Previous Year Pts Allowed
RB	Next Year Pts Allowed = 303 + 0.196 x Previous Year Pts Allowed
WR	Next Year Pts Allowed = 400 + 0.230 x Previous Year Pts Allowed

These formulas show us that it is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform in the upcoming season as only 20% to 25% of the previous year’s statistics help us predict next year’s statistics. For example, the Cleveland Browns were the worst passing defense last season by allowing 333 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but according to the above formula you can expect them to allow only 288 in 2008. For those who doubt these formulas, of the ten defenses that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2006 only two remained in the bottom ten in 2007 and three were in the top ten.

The next step was to use these numbers and determine each team’s strength of schedule by position for the 2008 season. The following charts show the three easiest and the three hardest schedules for each position as well as the multiplier which shows how much easier or harder their schedule is compared to the league average:

Easiest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
WAS	1.008	MIN	1.017	WAS	1.016
PHI	1.007	CAR	1.015	SF	1.015
TB	1.007	NO	1.015	NYG	1.009

Hardest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
SD	0.989	CIN	0.980	SD	0.985
NE	0.991	NYG	0.983	NO	0.988
DEN	0.993	PIT	0.983	DEN	0.989

These numbers show us that the difference is less than 4% between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. For example the Minnesota Vikings have the easiest schedule for running backs but we can expect the defenses they will face to allow only 1.7% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average. This means that if you project Adrian Peterson to have 300 fantasy points, his easier schedule would mean you can expect him to have 305 fantasy points. There are so many factors in fantasy football and fantasy players try and include as many as possible in their rankings but I believe these statistics show that projected strength of schedule is one that is almost negligible.

There is one factor that is rarely looked at that I believe is much more important than projected strength of schedule and that is the previous season’s strength of schedule. If you think about it, it does not make much sense that it is more common to try and predict how good a player’s opponents will be next season than looking at how good his opponents were last season. The following charts are very similar to the ones shown previously but in this case they will show the three teams who had the easiest and hardest schedules in 2007 based on 2007 statistics:

Easiest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
PIT	1.055	MIN	1.086	SEA	1.081
TB	1.045	GB	1.072	SF	1.078
ARI	1.040	KC	1.060	PIT	1.058

Hardest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
DEN	0.940	BUF	0.936	DEN	0.947
JAX	0.952	NYJ	0.938	SD	0.950
NO	0.959	CIN	0.946	TEN	0.951

As you can see these numbers vary much more than the ones shown previously and it is quite normal because instead of applying the formulas that only take into account 20% to 25% of the 2007 statistics we just used the 2007 statistics. The difference is quite remarkable between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. Ben Roethlisberger for example had 306 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allowed on average 290.1 fantasy pts while the league average is 274.9. If you divide 306 by 1.055 you obtain 290 fantasy points, Ben Roethlisberger’s estimated number of fantasy pts in 2007 had he faced average defenses. If you do the same thing for Jay Cutler who had 267 points with the hardest schedule for quarterbacks, his adjusted number of fantasy pts for 2007 is 284. This means that Roethlisberger who seemingly was much superior to Cutler last season in fact only had six more points than him if we adjust for strength of schedule.

Now these multipliers are not perfect because some would argue that for example Minnesota’s opponents allowed more points to running backs than the average defense because they all had to face the Vikings at least once. It is true that a run offense that was as dominant as Minnesota may have a strength of schedule multiplier that is a little too high but I do not think it has a significant impact. These numbers are not directly used in Ultimate FF Strategy’s 2008 Projections but they might help explain a few things like the very solid seasons of Kurt Warner, Adrian Peterson and Ryan Grant or the disappointing seasons of Thomas Jones and Rudi Johnson. The reason these numbers are not used directly in our projections is that the historical statistics we look at were not adjusted for strength of schedules either. For example, when we say that players who had a yards per carry average between 5.2 and 6.0, like Peterson, had a decrease of 18% in YPC in the next year, part of the reason for that 18% decrease for many players could have been that they had an easy strength of schedule. It would therefore be incorrect to decrease Peterson’s projected yards per carry average by 15% to 20% because similar players had that decrease and then by another 8% because he had an easy schedule last season. For those interested we have posted the complete 2007 strength of schedules by position.

Defenses change so much from year to year that it is not very useful to look at a player’s strength of schedule based on the previous year’s defensive statistics. Certain people do try to adjust defensive statistics based on changes made in the off-season but it is such a small factor that you are much better spending your time on predicting the offensive players’ statistics. However, looking at the previous year’s strength of schedules to adjust player statistics will allow you to compare players much more accurately and could help you explain a few things that will give you an edge over other fantasy football players in your draft.

Ultimate Draft Strategy

A few months ago we published an article (Average Draft Position Analysis) which compared average draft position with end of year statistics in order to find a general draft strategy. In this article, we will use the results obtained from that study and compare them with this year’s average draft position as well as our rankings in order to offer a much more precise drafting strategy for 2008.

Early to Middle 1^st Round: One of the guidelines was to draft a RB if you have one of the first seven picks. This year the top seven RBs are Tomlinson, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook, Addai, Gore and Barber. Ultimate FF Strategy is not so high on Jackson and Gore but we are on Portis who is currently at number eight in average draft position. We would therefore recommend drafting Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, Barber and Portis in the order that you prefer before going to any other position.

Late 1^st and Early 2^nd Round: As mentioned in the other article, after the top seven or eight running backs it becomes very hard to predict which ones will perform. Since 2004, only 25% of the RBs drafted between picks seven and twelve end up finishing in the top twelve RBs at the end of the year. Remember that this is the danger zone for running backs so you will want to go with the safest options. The choices are Johnson, Lynch, McGahee, Grant and Jones-Drew. Ultimate FF Strategy has McGahee and Jones-Drew as low risk players and Grant could also be an option but if Portis drops to the late first then there is no doubt that he should be your pick. We do not recommend going with Brady even though he is by far the best QB since there are later constraints with RBs and WRs. If you draft Brady in the first it would mean you have to go with two RBs in the second and third and there is little value in rounds four and five at WR so it would leave you with a very thin group of receivers. For that reason we very highly recommend getting Moss or Wayne who are the obvious top two at WR.

Middle to Late 2^nd Round: In a PPR, RBs 8 to 13 average only five more points than RBs 14 to 20. This means that at this point unless a RB you really like (Jones-Drew would be a good pick in the late 2^nd) falls, you should go with your favorite WR amongst Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Colston. We recommend to stay away from risky options like Edwards and A. Johnson and would likely draft Colston before any of those guys but that is for you to decide in your draft.

3^rd Round: One of our important guidelines to follow was to have two RBs by the end of the third round so unless you went with two RBs with your first two picks you will have to draft one here. At this point your options are probably Maroney, Bush, Lewis, Jacobs, Brown and Parker. Brown and Jacobs are big gambles but they could really payoff; all we can say is that if you choose to go with one of those two then make sure you get a good third RB. If you did go with two RBs in the first then you should go with the last one of the top four QBs which are Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees or a WR. The problem for WRs at this point is that there is generally little value because WRs 11 to 20 average only 19 more points than WRs 21 to 30 in a PPR. The difference this year however is that the three WRs being drafted in the late third round are Burress, Holt and Welker and we believe all three are pretty low risk options. If you are drafting earlier in the round then Steve Smith and Chad Johnson are also possibilities.

4^th Round: At this point there is little value at WR and the players being drafted are not ones we particularly like so we strongly recommend staying away from WRs at this point unless Burress, Holt or Welker falls. At QB there is a possibility that Brees would still be available and he would be a good pick at this point if you like him. If he is not then we recommend staying away from QBs because there is a big drop after the top four and history has shown that there is good value in later rounds. At RB, history has shown that RBs 21 to 31 are all quite similar so we would recommend waiting unless your first two RBs are quite injury-prone then McFadden and James could be pretty good picks. This leaves us with the TE position where we believe that Jason Witten is well above the other ones and he would be a very good pick in the fourth round.

5^th round: This is another difficult round because there is still little value at QB and WR. At this point we recommend drafting either a top four TE which are Witten, Gates, Winslow and Gonzalez or your third RB depending on that you did in the fourth round. Ultimate FF Strategy is very high on Thomas Jones this year and he is an excellent pick in the fifth round. Just make sure that you should have your third RB by the end of the fifth round.

6^th and 7^th round: These are the rounds where there is good value at the WR position and you should draft two WRs. Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are our favorites but White, Chambers, Driver, Moss, Curtis, Gonzalez and Galloway are also good options if you prefer them. Javon Walker and Bernard Berrian are also both being drafted around this point but we have them much lower in our rankings and would recommend staying away from them. You may also want to start considering drafting your starting QB; Cutler is a good pick in the seventh round.

8^th round: You will want to make sure you have your starting QB by the 8^th round. Cutler and Garrard are our favorite guys at this point; Manning and Bulger are also possible options. We are also big fans of Aaron Rodgers who you should be able to get in the ninth round but he is still a very good pick in the eighth round. Make sure you have all your starting wide receivers by the end of the eighth round.

9^th and 10^th round: By the end of the tenth round you must have your starting TE and your starting QB. In these rounds we like Rodgers, Schaub and Young at QB and at TE we love Scheffler and Daniels. From this point on there are few guidelines to follow other than waiting on your kicker and defense. Simply make sure you have enough backups at each position and be careful about bye weeks as well.

Drafting in Non-PPR leagues: There is not too much difference in terms of strategy if you are drafting in a league that does not give a point for each reception. The only change we would make is in the third round we would recommend drafting a QB before that group of WRs but Moss and Wayne are still good options in the first or second round.

Drafting in a 3 or 6 points per TD pass league: If your league only gives 3 point for each TD pass then stay away from the QBs in the third round and if it gives 6 points per TD pass then similar to a non-PPR league we would highly recommend Romo or Brees before a WR.

Top 10 Undervalued Players

#10 Torry Holt: He has finished in the top 15 for wide receivers for eight consecutive seasons and has only missed two games in his entire NFL career. Last season, which many considered a disappointing season, he had the same number of receptions and yards as the previous year but his touchdowns dropped from ten to seven. He finished 11th for wide receivers in a year where the Rams offense was a disaster because of injuries. Put all that together and you have a wide receiver that cannot finish worse than 11th but who has consistently shown that he can be a top five receiver.

#9 Willis McGahee: He finished last season as the ninth best running back in his first year with Baltimore and in the 14 full games that he played, he averaged 20.6 carries per game. New Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball to his running backs as we saw with Tomlinson in San Diego and last season with Ronnie Brown who had 39 receptions in only seven games. The retirement of Ogden may be a concern but his replacement, Jared Gaither, is a very good run blocker which may make the Ravens run the ball even more than last year. McGahee has only missed three games in four seasons and he will at least get as many carries as last season so he can only improve if we consider the improved line and the Cam Cameron factor.

#8 Jerricho Cotchery / Laveranues Coles: They are both being drafted in the 25 to 30 range for wide receivers even though Cotchery finished 20th last year and Coles was as good as him in points per game. The Jets line is much improved this season with the additions of Faneca and Woody as well as Ferguson and Mangold who should improve in their third season. The quarterback play is still inconsistent but it cannot be worse than it was last season. Both of these receivers have been good for two consecutive seasons so they are pretty safe picks and they also have a lot of upside because of the much improved offensive line.

#7 Maurice Jones-Drew: He is once again being drafted much lower than he should be because everyone fears that Fred Taylor will continue to steal carries away from him. He was the 8th best running back in 2006 and the 11th best in 2007 and he is only 23 years old. Those numbers alone should make him a top ten pick but his average draft position is about 13th for running backs. If you now consider that he has reached those numbers with less than 170 carries, that Fred Taylor is 32 years old, that the Jaguars line is better than last season and that it has a lot of depth, it makes him a very good safe pick in the late first or early second round.

#6 David Garrard: His numbers from weeks 11 to 16 when his offensive line was the same as it will be this year would have made him the ninth best quarterback and only ten points behind the fifth best. Of the eight quarterbacks above him, one retired, one lost his best offensive lineman and one had 70 more pass attempts than his average of the past three years. The additions of Porter and Williamson give Garrard more options this season and the depth on the offensive line makes him a pretty safe pick. The concern with Garrard is that he has yet to play 16 games in a season but it is also only the second time that he enters the season as the starter. Nonetheless, he should finish much higher than number 13, his current average draft position.

#5 Owen Daniels: He was the seventh best tight end last season in only his second NFL season and had only three touchdowns. Schaub played eight full games last season and Daniels had 41 receptions for 528 yards and 1 TD in those games which would have made him the fifth best tight end over 16 games. He is currently being drafted as the 11th best tight end which means as long as his numbers decrease by less than 10% he will be a good pick. That is a little ridiculous if you consider that he is 25 years old and his projected numbers over 16 games with Schaub are 25% higher than his actual statistics from last season.

#4 Aaron Rodgers: His average draft position is about 18th at the moment for quarterbacks even though he is on one of the best teams in the NFC. You can find a full article that explains why we believe Aaron Rodgers is much better than that here. If we assume Rodgers will run for about 150 yards and a touchdown which should not be too hard to do for him, his passing numbers only have to be 70% of what Favre’s were last season for him to finish above his average draft position.

#3 Tony Scheffler: He became the starting tight end for Denver in week 5 and still finished the year as the 11th best tight end. Over the past two seasons he has started 17 games at tight end and had 61 receptions for 768 yards and 9 touchdowns; those numbers make him a top six or seven tight end. Furthermore, last season Denver was missing two of its best offensive linemen for most of the season and their starting quarterback was playing with diabetes and did not know it. There are slight concerns about his foot injury but the season is still three months away and it should not be a concern when you are drafting a potential top five tight end in the tenth round.

#2 Marques Colston: Only ten wide receivers finished in the top 20 in each of the past two seasons and Colston only played 14 games in 2006. He is by far the best wide receiver on an offense that was first in passing yards in 2006 and third in 2007. If we look at the receivers who finished above Colston last season, Moss and Wayne should still be above; Owens is 35 years old and could slow down; Edwards could very well be a one-year wonder considering similar receivers dropped by an average of 16%; Fitzgerald has been inconsistent; Houshmandzadeh and Johnson were only slightly better and there are quite a few question marks in Cincinnati this year. On average only three or four wide receivers will remain in the top ten the following year and Colston is one of the few safe options in the top 10 from last year, yet he is only being drafted in the early third round.

#1 Clinton Portis: In six seasons in the NFL, Portis has never had less than 250 points per 16 games in a point per reception league. He will be only 27 years old when the season begins, he was the third best running back last season, he has missed only 12 games in six seasons in the NFL and yet he is only being drafted as the eighth or ninth best running back. Moreover, last season the Redskins were missing its two best run blockers on the offensive line for most of the season. New head coach Jim Zorn will probably use an offense similar to Seattle’s where he was quarterback coach for the past few seasons and Alexander managed to put up very solid numbers from 2001 to 2006 in that offense. Portis is a much safer option with your first round pick than someone like Marion Barber who has not proven much or Gore, Jackson and Johnson who have poor offensive lines. Portis is not a spectacular pick but remember that since 2004, only 7 of the 28 running backs that were drafted between picks 6 and 12 finished the season in the top 12. This means that if you make a pick in the middle to late first round, it has a 25% chance of living up to those expectations; Portis has shown much more consistency than any other running back taken in the middle to late first round.

Derek Anderson - One Year Wonder or New Star?

Team: Cleveland Browns
Position: Quarterback
Height: 6-6
Weight: 230 lbs
Born: 06-15-83
Experience: 4th season

Career:Derek Anderson was originally selected by the Baltimore Ravens in the sixth round of the 2005 NFL Draft but was waived in his first season and was claimed by the Cleveland Browns. Anderson was a three year starter at Oregon State and played with star running back Steven Jackson, now of the St. Louis Rams. Anderson led his team to three straight bowl games including a win against Brady Quinn’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the 2004 Insight Bowl. Anderson saw his first serious action in the NFL in his second season when Charlie Frye went down with a wrist injury in week 13. He went on to start the next three games but threw four interceptions in week 16 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Charlie Frye returned for the final game. In 2007, it was an interesting battle in camp between Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson and first round pick Brady Quinn but Frye prevailed and started the season opener. Frye threw one interception and was sacked five times in the first 20 minutes of the game so Anderson came in and never looked back. He solidified his starting job in the next game when he threw for over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns and led the Browns to a 51-45 win over the Bengals. Anderson made a well-deserved first trip to the Pro Bowl after a breakout season but it remains to be seen if he can continue to perform at such a high level.Supporting Cast:The Cleveland Browns made big moves in the 2007 off-season by drafting LT Joe Thomas and acquiring LG Eric Steinbach as a free agent. The Browns offensive line was one of the best in the NFL last season and will return all five starters this season. The line should continue improving as it builds chemistry and the possible return of LeCharles Bentley could also help. The only concern for this line is that it does not have much depth at the tackle position and will struggle if either Thomas or Shaffer were to be injured. At wide receiver, the Browns have one of the best young receivers in the league in Braylon Edwards and also signed Donte Stallworth as a free agent from the New England Patriots. Stallworth has had an up and down career but has great speed and will help stretch defenses. Joe Jurevicius had surgery to cleanup his knee in May but should be ready for training camp and provide good depth at wide receiver in 2008. Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr has led the team in receptions for the past two seasons but he also had surgery to cleanup his knee in the off-season. Winslow should however be ready for training camp and will likely benefit from the addition of Stallworth as safeties will have to stay deep more often than not. Jamal Lewis will remain the starting running back and although he is getting old, he still does an adequate job as a starter with Jason Wright as his main backup. Overall, the Browns will have the same offense as in 2007 with Donte Stallworth as an upgrade at wide receiver but everyone stayed healthy in 2007 which may not be the case again this season.Job Security:Derek Anderson will be the starter in 2008 after signing a three-year contract in the off-season but he will have to continue performing at a high level or there could be some controversy in Cleveland. 2007 first round pick Brady Quinn saw very little action last year but after having a full-year to learn the system should be ready to step in if Anderson struggles. Fantasy Outlook:Last season, Derek Anderson went un-drafted in most leagues but finished the season as the fifth best quarterback in fantasy football. The offense now has more depth than last year but we have yet to see how they can deal with injuries so there are still some question marks even with all starters returning. Historically, quarterbacks who breakout at a young age continue to perform at a high level in the next season like Aaron Brooks did in 2002 and Marc Bulger in 2004. Seven of the twelve quarterbacks who broke out like Anderson decreased somewhere between one and ten percent in the next season which would still make Anderson a top ten quarterback. Three of those twelve did improve even more in their next season and the addition of Stallworth leads us to believe that Anderson could join that group. If everyone stays healthy, he showed last season that he has the talent to be a top five quarterback and could be looking at close to 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this season. His three touchdown runs were a bit of an anomaly last season and that number will likely drop in 2008. Overall, Anderson is a medium reward player with potential to join the top four quarterbacks but also has medium risk because injuries will happen sooner or later to this offense.
Ultimate FF Strategy Full Quarterback Rankings
posted by Ultimate FF Strategy at 1:43 PM on Jun 4, 2008