#10 Santonio Holmes: Holmes had a very good season in 2007 finishing the year as the 24th best WR in PPR scoring while playing in only 13 games. However, historically wide receivers that have such an improvement in their second NFL season tend to disappoint in their third season. Holmes went from 143 fantasy points in his rookie season to 239 fantasy points per 16 games in his second season, a 67% improvement. 17 WRs had between 200 and 280 pts in their second year and improved by at least 20% over their rookie year's point per 16 games numbers. Their average decrease in their 3rd year is 10% and only six improved. The concern is that six of them had a decrease of more than 20% which is what makes Holmes a high risk player. Ward will be fully healthy this season and the Steelers also added Limas Sweed, the tall wide receiver that Roethlisberger wanted. Holmes will likely put up similar receptions and yards numbers per game as he did last season but he is very unlikely to have 8 touchdowns in 13 games like he did last year.
#9 Matt Hasselbeck: It is quite abnormal for a quarterback to have career high numbers like Hasselbeck did at 32 years old and those numbers should decrease in 2008. There are 13 quarterbacks who improved their performance over their two previous seasons by at least 10% between the ages of 30 and 34 years old and attempted at least 400 passes in the next season. Their average decrease in fantasy points was 13% in the next season. Hasselbeck was not any better last season than he was in his three previous seasons but he had more fantasy points because he attempted a lot more passes. This season the addition of Mike Wahle means the Seahawks will run more often in goal line situations and the much weaker group of wide receivers should also hurt Hasselbeck’s numbers. His average draft position is currently seventh and many have him ranked in the top five, much too early for him in our opinion.
#8 Michael Turner: Michael Turner was one of the biggest free agent signings in 2008 and like many others, it is difficult to project how he will perform this season. Turner is currently being drafted somewhere between 18 and 21 in most drafts but in our opinion there are simply too many question marks for him to be ranked that high. Besides the obvious concern that he has never carried the ball more than 80 times in a season, there is the concern that he will be part of a running back by committee this season. The Falcons did sign Turner to a 34.5 million deal but they also have Jerious Norwood who has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons. The Falcons only ran the ball 354 times last season and even if that number increases to 375 or 400, Norwood will have at least 125 or 150 of those which leaves Turner with about 250 carries. Furthermore, the Falcons have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The only addition to the line in the off-season was first round pick Sam Baker and he is considered a much better pass protector than a run blocker. Overall, Turner has never been a starter in the NFL, he is on a bad offense that will be using a running back by committee and is on a team that did not do much to improve its offensive line in the off-season; he is simply not worth a top 20 pick at running back.
#7 Chris Cooley: Cooley has been a perfect example of consistency at the tight end position with at least six touchdowns in each of his first four NFL seasons and between 700 and 800 yards in his last three. We are going out on a limb by having him in our top ten of overvalued players after he has shown excellent consistency but we are concerned about new Head Coach Jim Zorn’s plans. The Redskins had needs on defence and on the offensive line but yet used their first three picks in the draft to select two wide receivers and a tight end. As much as Zorn says that Cooley will still be a factor this season, he will not match last season’s numbers with three new receiving targets for Campbell to throw the ball to.
#6 Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger is the second Steelers player in our top ten and like Holmes it is a concern about touchdowns. Last season the Steelers had 34 passing and only 9 rushing touchdowns. Since 2002, 12 teams had at least 25 passing touchdowns in a season with at least 70% of their offensive touchdowns being passing touchdowns. The average decrease in percentage of passing touchdowns was 13% which would mean only 69% of the Steelers touchdowns should be through the air in 2007. If we assume that the Steelers once again have 43 offensive touchdowns it would mean Roethlisberger would have only 29 passing touchdowns, down from last season’s 33. If you also consider that the Steelers lost one of the best guards in the NFL in Alan Faneca and that they had the easiest schedule for quarterbacks last season, it makes Roethlisberger a risky pick and an overvalued player
#5 Steven Jackson: The Rams offense had to deal with injuries all of last season and it was the main reason for the team’s struggles. The line will be improved this year with everyone healthy and the addition of Jacob Bell at left guard but even with all that, Jackson should not be drafted fourth overall this season. As good as Jackson was in 2006, he was barely a top ten running back in 2005 and was only 15th last season. Jackson is a very talented back and he will get close to 300 carries and above 4.0 yards per carry once again but he is on a bad offense and will not get the touchdown numbers to be worth a top five pick. We have Jackson as the fifth best running back in our projections but he is a high risk player and as we have said many times, you are looking for a safe option with your first round pick and Jackson is far from being one.
#4 Larry Johnson: Similar to Jackson, Larry Johnson is a talented player who was once on a very good offense but is now on a bad one. The Chiefs offensive line is a big question mark with three starters who have never played an NFL game. The line should be better than last season but none of the new starters are particularly good run blockers so it will not help Johnson as much as many think it will. Johnson will still get a lot of touches but there are injury concerns and there is no way that he will come close to his touchdown numbers from 2004 and 2005 with the current offense. Johnson is another player who is being drafted too high because of his past and many fantasy football players fail to look at the current situation in Kansas City to realize that no one could be a top ten or even top fifteen running back with that offense.
#3 Carson Palmer: Many will be surprised to see Palmer at number three on our list but the Cincinnati offense is not what it was two or three years ago. Palmer was the ninth best quarterback last season and twelfth in fantasy points per game but is still being drafted at number five this season. There is no reason to believe that Palmer will be a top five quarterback this season with Chad Johnson and Levi Jones unhappy and requesting a trade. Even the best case scenario that both play for the Bengals this season, it is quite unlikely that they will perform as well as they did in the past. It simply does not make sense that people are expecting Palmer to be better than last season even though the offense did not improve in the off-season and two of the most important players on this offense are unhappy.
#2 Braylon Edwards: Edwards is very talented but last season was his first good one and he now has a lot of expectations to live up to. Many players like Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Irvin, Muhsin Muhammad, Steve Smith and Torry Holt had a decrease in performance after their first good season in the NFL. No matter which way we look at it, the average decrease for wide receivers similar to Edwards is about 15%. It is very easy to explain why this could very well happen to Edwards as well and it is because of his touchdown heavy production last season. Of the 24 wide receivers that had over 13 touchdowns in a season and played at least 14 games in the following season, only 12 had over 10 touchdowns the following year. Their average decrease in touchdowns was 42% which would mean Edwards would have about nine or ten this year; a drop like that would make Edwards about the tenth best receiver this season.
#1 Frank Gore: Gore is the third running back in our top ten who disappointed last season and that everyone expects to bounce back to the level he was at previously even though there are no signs that he will. Gore was the ninth best running back in points per 16 games last season but is being drafted as the sixth best this season. This could make sense for certain running backs but it does not for Gore in part because the 49ers offensive line will be worse in run blocking with the loss of Justin Smiley and Larry Allen. Furthermore, Mike Martz offenses in the NFL have averaged 60 to 70 carries less than they did the season before and after he arrived, not very promising for Gore. He had an exceptional season in 2006 and although he is very talented, question marks on the offensive line and with the Mike Martz offense make Frank Gore the most overvalued fantasy player in our opinion for the 2008 season.
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