By fightingchancefantasy.com
Their are two basic ways that a player becomes over valued in fantasy baseball. The first is living off of their old glory. These are the players that became household names after years of great seasons, or superb individual performances under the brightest lights. However, the glory days are behind them, and the numbers no longer live up to the expectations. Think Mike Piazza or Juan Gonzalez towards the end of their careers. Many times you can still find a team in your league that is willing to trade for this type of player. Ryan calls this team the "Mr. 2001 All-Star Team" in his article "The Five People You Meet in Fantasy Baseball."
The second way a player becomes over-valued is if they are a hot prospect coming into the league and the experts and media outlets feed the hype machine. These players are all expectation and no numbers to show for it. Think Sean Boroughs or Hank Blalock.
Below I've assembled a team of players who I feel are over-rated. Keep in mind that just because a name appears on this list, does not simply mean to avoid these players all together. Many of the names below are very productive fantasy players, some of which I'd like to have on my teams, however their value may be greater to someone else then their final numbers will indicate, and you may be able to get the same production from a lesser known commodity.
Catcher - Joe Mauer
The catcher position was a toss up between Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. I gave the inauspicious nod to Mauer because he's been infuriating us fantasy owners with his potential for more seasons and came into the league with even higher expectations than Martinez did. Mauer has been tabbed as a guy that will revolutionize the position. Although, he has won a batting title in '06 and is batting .330 right now, I would hardly say that he has revolutionized the position. His other numbers are simply unimpressive; he has 2 homeruns, 27 RBI and 0 steals this year. As I said before, I am still holding onto hope that he is young enough to develop more power, but don't expect too much this year. If you own Mauer, but know someone in your league that is fascinated by a catcher that can hit .300 and is willing to overpay, I would suggest making a move.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Brian McCann, Geovany Soto and Russell Martin
First Base - Mark Teixiera
Placing Mark Teixiera on this list was a tough pill for me to swallow, as he is one of my favorite fantasy players. But if you take away his amazing 2005 campaign, you're left with less than top tier first baseman numbers. For instance taking out the 2005 numbers (.301 BA, 43 HR, 144 RBI) his numbers would average .287 BA, 32 HR, 103 RBI. To put that into perspective, the much lesser appreciated Adrian Gonzalez hit .282 with 30 HR and 100 RBI last year. That being said, many fantasy teams still view him as the monster offensive player he was in 2005. He's also on this list because It's torture to deal with his predictably slow first half.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Adrian Gonzalez, Derrick Lee and Kevin Youkilis
Second Base - Robinson Cano
I'm not sure that I've ever been in a fantasy league that was completely void of Yankee fans, so naturally hometown players can get a little over valued. Robinson Cano is a very good player at a scarce position on a team that has a ton of fans. Many times people will pay a premium for a player like him. Cano has yet to crack 20 HRs or 100 RBI in a season thus far in his short career, he also doesn't steal many bases. His batting average is his biggest strength as evidenced by his .342 average in '06. Look for alternatives like these...
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla and Brian Roberts
Shortstop - Michael Young
Michael Young is a fantastic hitter who's collected over 200 hits in each of his last five seasons. But unless you need hits or average his fantasy value is very limited. His homeruns dropped even further last year to a career low of 9. He still drives in a decent amount for a shortstop and you can guess he'll have about 10 steals. I just think the other alternatives might come at a cheaper cost.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Rafeal Furcal, Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Guillen (if he's still eligible at short)
Thirdbase - Alex Gordon
This sweet swinging lefty has been deemed the next George Brett by some scouts and experts. Of course this comparison was inevitable, as Alex Gordon is a top hitting prospect, who happens to be lefty and play for the Royals. He still may be a future Hall of Famer someday, but for now he continues to struggle to get a handle on major league pitching. Next year, I fully expect him to be a good example of a "Post-Hype Prospect." Their are many fantasy team owners that think he's going to have a great second half and start to put it all together this year, but I'm not so sure.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Garrett Atkins, Mark Reynolds and even the much maligned Adrian Beltre
Left Field - Manny Ramirez
Redsox players are often over-valued in much the same way Yankee players are. Manny, has built a solid reputation as a fantasy performer, but his best years are clearly behind him. Look for the hot streak he is currently on to cool down, as old knees and hamstrings begin to snag his lower body power. Not to mention, getting Manny to play hard in August and September is a bit of a coin toss. Well that's just "Manny Being Manny" right. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts up 30 and 100 again this year, but their is a good chance someone in your league would be ready to overpay for that kind of production. Trade him, and get production out of guys like...
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Quentin
Center Field - Carlos Beltran
Roaming centerfield for our all over-rated team is Carlos Beltran. It's not that Beltran isn't still a good fantasy player, it's just that he's not as good as he once was. As his career progresses and the wear and tear on his legs begins to gain momentum, look for his steals to continue to decline. Add that, to a not-so great batting average, and you got yourself an over-rated center fielder. He's still a consistent 30HR/20SB threat so don't dump him for cheap, but if you have an over-zealous Mets fan in your league, see what he's offering.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton and Hunter Pence
Right Field - Vladimir Guerrero
3 or 4 years ago, our over-rated outfield would have been the envy of fantasy sports teams everywhere. But creeky knees have zapped much of the value out of this 2004 All-star team. Of the three outfielders it looks like Vladimir Guerrero's age has caught up to him the most. Vlad's still only 32, but watching him try to run is like trying to start up a car with 300,000 miles that's been in a garage for 20 years. I keep looking for a trainer to bring him an oil can to lube up his rusty knees. He was once a guy that stole 40 bases, but was limited to 2 last year and 1 thus far this year. Hopefully for Vlad owner's, you can still trick another team into thinking he is the Vlad of old.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Nick Markakis, Corey Hart and Alex Rios
Starting Pitcher - Dontrelle Willis
The D-Train seems to have derailed a couple years back. Couple that, with a move to the much better hitting American League and you have a recipe for disaster. Somehow Dontelle Willis has held a soft spot through the struggles in fantasy owner's hearts. Maybe he carried that team to the fantasy championship in '05 with his surprising 22 wins. Whatever the reason is, if you can still get any value for him, please do. He's started 3 games this year and had a relief appearance in another, during this time he has accumulated 16 walks to only 3 K's. If anyone will give you anything, make the trade, before you are forced to just drop him completely.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Just about anyone, but if you are looking for undervalued starters check out Ervin Santana, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee
Closer - Jose Valverde
Jose Valverde led the NL in saves last year with 47, so it's reasonable that his value has sky rocketed. But his track record shows that he has been very inconsistent. The D-Backs thought along those same lines, when they moved him to the Astros this offseason. So far this year he has done a decent job, but he's not at the same level as last year. Look for Valverde to have solid numbers in the end, but if you hang onto him, you will have to deal with the ups and downs.
Capable Undervalued Replacements: Matt Capps, Joakim Soria and George Sherrill
Who did I miss? Who would make your All Over-Rated team? Drop me a comment, or send an email to
andy@fightingchancefantasy.com.
fightingchancefantasy.com
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