Ultimate Draft Strategy

A few months ago we published an article (Average Draft Position Analysis) which compared average draft position with end of year statistics in order to find a general draft strategy. In this article, we will use the results obtained from that study and compare them with this year’s average draft position as well as our rankings in order to offer a much more precise drafting strategy for 2008.

Early to Middle 1^st Round: One of the guidelines was to draft a RB if you have one of the first seven picks. This year the top seven RBs are Tomlinson, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook, Addai, Gore and Barber. Ultimate FF Strategy is not so high on Jackson and Gore but we are on Portis who is currently at number eight in average draft position. We would therefore recommend drafting Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, Barber and Portis in the order that you prefer before going to any other position.

Late 1^st and Early 2^nd Round: As mentioned in the other article, after the top seven or eight running backs it becomes very hard to predict which ones will perform. Since 2004, only 25% of the RBs drafted between picks seven and twelve end up finishing in the top twelve RBs at the end of the year. Remember that this is the danger zone for running backs so you will want to go with the safest options. The choices are Johnson, Lynch, McGahee, Grant and Jones-Drew. Ultimate FF Strategy has McGahee and Jones-Drew as low risk players and Grant could also be an option but if Portis drops to the late first then there is no doubt that he should be your pick. We do not recommend going with Brady even though he is by far the best QB since there are later constraints with RBs and WRs. If you draft Brady in the first it would mean you have to go with two RBs in the second and third and there is little value in rounds four and five at WR so it would leave you with a very thin group of receivers. For that reason we very highly recommend getting Moss or Wayne who are the obvious top two at WR.

Middle to Late 2^nd Round: In a PPR, RBs 8 to 13 average only five more points than RBs 14 to 20. This means that at this point unless a RB you really like (Jones-Drew would be a good pick in the late 2^nd) falls, you should go with your favorite WR amongst Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Colston. We recommend to stay away from risky options like Edwards and A. Johnson and would likely draft Colston before any of those guys but that is for you to decide in your draft.

3^rd Round: One of our important guidelines to follow was to have two RBs by the end of the third round so unless you went with two RBs with your first two picks you will have to draft one here. At this point your options are probably Maroney, Bush, Lewis, Jacobs, Brown and Parker. Brown and Jacobs are big gambles but they could really payoff; all we can say is that if you choose to go with one of those two then make sure you get a good third RB. If you did go with two RBs in the first then you should go with the last one of the top four QBs which are Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees or a WR. The problem for WRs at this point is that there is generally little value because WRs 11 to 20 average only 19 more points than WRs 21 to 30 in a PPR. The difference this year however is that the three WRs being drafted in the late third round are Burress, Holt and Welker and we believe all three are pretty low risk options. If you are drafting earlier in the round then Steve Smith and Chad Johnson are also possibilities.

4^th Round: At this point there is little value at WR and the players being drafted are not ones we particularly like so we strongly recommend staying away from WRs at this point unless Burress, Holt or Welker falls. At QB there is a possibility that Brees would still be available and he would be a good pick at this point if you like him. If he is not then we recommend staying away from QBs because there is a big drop after the top four and history has shown that there is good value in later rounds. At RB, history has shown that RBs 21 to 31 are all quite similar so we would recommend waiting unless your first two RBs are quite injury-prone then McFadden and James could be pretty good picks. This leaves us with the TE position where we believe that Jason Witten is well above the other ones and he would be a very good pick in the fourth round.

5^th round: This is another difficult round because there is still little value at QB and WR. At this point we recommend drafting either a top four TE which are Witten, Gates, Winslow and Gonzalez or your third RB depending on that you did in the fourth round. Ultimate FF Strategy is very high on Thomas Jones this year and he is an excellent pick in the fifth round. Just make sure that you should have your third RB by the end of the fifth round.

6^th and 7^th round: These are the rounds where there is good value at the WR position and you should draft two WRs. Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are our favorites but White, Chambers, Driver, Moss, Curtis, Gonzalez and Galloway are also good options if you prefer them. Javon Walker and Bernard Berrian are also both being drafted around this point but we have them much lower in our rankings and would recommend staying away from them. You may also want to start considering drafting your starting QB; Cutler is a good pick in the seventh round.

8^th round: You will want to make sure you have your starting QB by the 8^th round. Cutler and Garrard are our favorite guys at this point; Manning and Bulger are also possible options. We are also big fans of Aaron Rodgers who you should be able to get in the ninth round but he is still a very good pick in the eighth round. Make sure you have all your starting wide receivers by the end of the eighth round.

9^th and 10^th round: By the end of the tenth round you must have your starting TE and your starting QB. In these rounds we like Rodgers, Schaub and Young at QB and at TE we love Scheffler and Daniels. From this point on there are few guidelines to follow other than waiting on your kicker and defense. Simply make sure you have enough backups at each position and be careful about bye weeks as well.

Drafting in Non-PPR leagues: There is not too much difference in terms of strategy if you are drafting in a league that does not give a point for each reception. The only change we would make is in the third round we would recommend drafting a QB before that group of WRs but Moss and Wayne are still good options in the first or second round.

Drafting in a 3 or 6 points per TD pass league: If your league only gives 3 point for each TD pass then stay away from the QBs in the third round and if it gives 6 points per TD pass then similar to a non-PPR league we would highly recommend Romo or Brees before a WR.