Rumor Has It...

Calvin Johnson To See More Looks! Surprisingly, the departure of Mike Martz is great news for the young Calvin Johnson. Sadly, Johnson never truly benefited from Martz pass happy style. For some reason Martz has always had an attachment to players he coached in the past. For example, in 06’ Mike Furrey left the Rams to join Martz in Detroit and had a great season pulling in 98 balls for 1086 yards and 6 touchdowns. In 07’, Shaun McDonald was added to the list as he also left the Rams to play under Martz. He had a surprising solid season as well, leading his entire team in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Our sources are now telling us that both Furrey and McDonald will have smaller roles under new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto. First and foremost, Colletto plans to run far more than Martz . Secondly, when passing, Colletto plans on targeting his two gifted receivers, Roy Williams and especially Calvin Johnson. It’s about time! Both tower over most defensive backs and both have exceptional speed to compliment their size.

Fantasy Spin: This is great news for the entire Lions offense. Last year, Detroit’s opponents where able to double both Johnson and Williams completely disrespecting the Lions’ running game. This forced Kitna to excessively target his slot receivers. Colletto’s commitment to the run will force teams to respect the run and will open up the field on the outside. This increases the fantasy value of every player on the Lions’ offense. Roy Williams, in our eyes, is a solid second wide receiver. Some may say he still belongs in the top 12 but we disagree. There are some inconsistencies in his resume. Williams has been in the league for 4 years, but has played a full 16 games just one time. Throughout these four years, he is only averaging about 60 receptions and 900 yards a season. Considering the many offensive changes taking place in Detroit, this may be his year, but until we see something substantial from Williams, we are perfectly happy drafting him as our second receiver as opposed to drafting him for potential as a late first receiver . Johnson on the other hand is someone we are very excited about. He will inevitably see a substantial increase in looks and catches. Last year Johnson was targeted 95 times. Expect that number to jump up into the 130’s, easily giving him the opportunity to pull in 85 balls. We also like Johnson as a WR2 and if forced to choose between the two, would suggest passing on Williams, possibly filling another position, and targeting Johnson a few picks later.


Croyle Winning His Team Over. Croyle enters the 08’ season with 6 starts under his belt, all of which ended in a loss. All eyes are on Brodie Croyle as he attempts to prove to his team and coaches that he can succeed at the pro level, and things seem to be off to a great start. “Brodie’s looking good, man,” wide receiver Dwayne Bowe said. “He threw a go route, back shoulder, against the wind. It was on the money. I was like, ‘Dude, you’re ready. It’s on.’ ” Croyle will enter the year as the Chiefs starting quarterback and while some still lack confidence in his ability, Croyle does not. “He’s like, in the huddle, eyes focused, everything on one accord,” Bowe said. “He’s ready.” His confidence and play merit the trust of fellow teammate Dwayne Bowe and as we draw closer to the season, we can expect this trend to continue.

Fantasy Spin: Croyle still has a lot of work to do before he elevates his play to warrant consideration from a fantasy perspective, but this new found confidence is great news for the likes of Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. Johnson suffered greatly from the inconsistencies at quarterback as defenses stacked the line. We expect Johnson to be back to his old form, definitely ranking in the top 10 at his position. Gonzalez has always been reliable averaging 78 catches and 950 yards a year over the past 10 seasons. We don’t expect anything to change. The Chiefs most impressive performance from last year was Dwayne Bowe. With horrible play from his quarterbacks, the rookie somehow managed to rack up 995 yards and 5 scores. As Kansas City solidifies their weak areas, we can only expect an increase from Bowe making him an intriguing WR2.


Marshawn Lynch Looks Quicker and Stronger! According to Buffalo’s coaching staff, there is a notable difference in Lynch’s quickness and strength when compared to the previous year. After spending an entire year in an NFL strength and conditioning program Lynch is in the best shape of his career. He has also has added a new workout to his schedule. “Something that's been helping me out a lot is this pool workout I've been doing," said Lynch. "It's running underwater and swimming laps. It's just a little something that I like to do on the side." Lynch also believes Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert’s high energy offense also plays a part in his new look. "With the new wrinkles that he has added, speeding up the tempo a little bit, it's exciting," said Lynch. "It keeps you on your toes and you can never even try to take a play off because you'll get left behind so fast."

Fantasy Spin: Unfortunately, Lynch’s superb rookie season was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson’s even more impressive season. On only 13 starts, Lynch ran for 1115 yards and 7 touchdowns. If the rumors are true and Lynch is entering the year stronger and quicker, he is a must have on all fantasy teams. He is already entering the fantasy season ranked in the top 12 at his position, so if you happen to draw one of the latter picks in your fantasy draft, be sure to target Lynch.


Jonathan Vilma Impressing Coaches. The 2004 Defensive rookie of the year, missed 9 games last season because of a knee injury. Prior to that, Vilma was averaging just over 130 tackles a season and was a dominant IDP selection. The Saint’s coaching staff is very optimistic when speaking of Jonathan Vilma. Even though he has been limited in practice, head coach Sean Payton speaking of Vilma’s performance said, “It's been very good, it's been real positive so far." If all goes well, the Saints plan to build their entire defense around Jonathan Vilma.

Fantasy Spin: Vilma’s knee surgery has many skeptical about his production and he is currently viewed as a late second option depending on where you look. This is an ideal player to target slightly earlier. In his four year career, Vilma has eclipsed the 100 tackle mark 3 times, one season even recording an impressive 173 tackles. Yes, this was all before his injury, but Vilma appears to be on track and healthy. If Vilma is able to reproduce what he accomplished in New York, you will be ecstatic with your selection.

Pitcher Streaming; When and How To Do It

I've been asked a ton about pitcher streaming and even in my expert league over at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ EXPERTS are streaming.

I've always maintained that there is nothing wrong with streaming. My only fix on it is you should only do it when you need to and not because you can. PS (Pitcher Streaming) does take away from the competitive nature of the game, and reduces the competition down to whoever can pick up and throw more pitchers.

Here's when you should stream. Its best to stream in H2H formats where you need to win a few categories. If you are losing or tied consider using PS. Make sure that you have no chance to win the categories that PS can hurt and that you have a chance to win the categories PS will help. PS will always help strikeouts, wins, and innings.

Its best to stream in a H2H Roto League where there is only 4 categories for starting pitchers.

My suggestion is if you need to do it, don't worry about wins. Whether or not if the pitcher is good he may not win, so why bother. Get pitchers who can strikeout. Better yet, check the pitchers who are probables that week and look at the teams they are facing. Then goto this link at MLB.com and check out which teams strikeout the most. For example, the Florida Marlins lead the league in strikeouts with 368 and second place goes to the Padres with 363. Look for starters facing teams that strikeout allot and if you are lucky a good strikeout pitcher facing a strikeout team and you are in.

There are no guarantees in PS, but we will all have to do it at some point and if you make the right pick ups it will pay off. If you don't, the damage will be done.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/

2008 Offensive Line Analysis & Rankings

From: Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy
The following offensive line rankings were determined based on a number of factors which include the new additions to the offensive line, injuries suffered last season, the durability of the line, the average age of the line and the depth of the line. The offensive lines have been divided in five groups and teams in each group are listed in alphabetical order. To further understand each line, click on the team name and it will lead you to a detailed analysis of the offensive line.

Click on: http://www.thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=294 to view the complete chart and analysis.

How To Handle An Auction Draft

I recently participated in a very interesting expert mock auction for an upcoming fantasy football publication and was reminded of some consistent themes that fantasy owners can look for in just about every auction draft. The most glaring one at the end of the night, as Brandon Jacobs went for less money than guys like Vince Young, David Garrard, Chris Chambers, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James and Willie Parker, was that there are always studs who slip through the cracks.

No matter how well owners prepare for mock auctions, there are always at least a handful of quality players who go for far less than they should. Jacobs was a prime example on this night, as his name went un-called until the late, late rounds. As a result of nobody throwing him out for bid, more and more teams were allotting large parts of their budgets on other players. By the time Jacobs was called, an owner was able to swoop him up for a mere $14 out of a $200 budget. From a strategy perspective, owners can learn from this and dominate their auctions by aligning their materials the same way they would for a regular draft. After doing that, you notice that Jacobs is no worse than a fourth round pick in pretty much all formats. To say that he's a bargain at 7 percent of an entire auction budget is a gross understatement. The longer more and more names in the top four rounds go un-called, the more of your budget you should keep open. The longer you do this, the other owners won't be able to match your offers, and you'll be able to snatch a stud or two on the cheap.

View The Rest Of This Blog At No-Offseason.com

Who's Ready To Breakout?

There were three first basemen taken early in most drafts, all coming off a huge 2007 season. All three have been disappointing and inconsistent to this point in mid May. Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena are the three sluggers in this debate and the questions which we'd like to know the answers to are:

1. Which one is most likely to breakout and play to expectations?

2. Which one is most likely to continue struggling and miss expectations?

Ryan Howard: While his 9 HRs are okay, it only projects to 33 for this season. That's a huge droppoff from his 47 and 58 homer tallies of 2007 and his MVP 2006 season. What is far more concerning is MLB record strikeout pace and his horrid .188 batting average. The one positive to look is the fact that he hit 10 homers in both June and July last year after a slow start and a DL stint.


Prince Fielder: While his 2008 line of 5-23-.255 is not terrible, it's far off his monstrous 2007 season of 50-119-.288. Much has been made of his conversion to a vegetarian, but he still physically looks like a power hitter to me. Last season his best month was May, with 13 dingers, but he has only 1 so far this month. In addition, in his 141 at bats so far, he has only 7 doubles.

Carlos Pena: Coming off a career year of 46-121-.281, there were many skeptics who doubted whether Pena could repeat those numbers. Fantasy owners would've been happy for something close to that, but his number to this point are only 8-20-.211, which would put him on pace for 30 homers and 77 RBIs. Not bad, but also below expectations. Last season he had 10 homers in April and May combined, so maybe he's just a slow starter. His power stroke was consistent the rest of the way, with 7 in June, 8 in July, 8 in August, and finishing big in September, belting 13.

Which one of these three will come the closest to meeting expectations?
Which one will be the biggest disappointment?

Let's see your comments for the concerned fantasy owners.

Who's Hot, Who's Not

Hot

Sedrick Ellis – DT: The Saints could not be happier with their first round selection after this week’s mini camp. Ellis was the epitome of dominance and lived up to the hype as he was commanding opposing lineman. "He's been a pain in the rear for a couple days now, splitting double-teams and getting in the backfield…. He's an explosive player. I think he's got a want-to. He's been a part of a winning program. I like him. I like what I've seen," head coach Sean Payton said. At USC, Ellis exhibited his superb strength and power, but surprisingly at 310 lbs, Ellis also has impressed coaches with his exceptional quickness and first step. While his spectacular showing was only against fellow rookies, there is no denying Ellis’ natural ability and great potential. From a fantasy standpoint, there are usually just a handful of defensive tackles that make an impact and even though it’s unlikely Ellis jumps right into that group he is still worth a late round selection as your last defensive lineman. According to Sean Payton, Ellis has the ability to play both tackle positions, which would make 50 total tackles and 4 to 5 sacks a very possible goal.

Jake Delhomme – QB: Jake Delhomme is right on schedule and threw three straight days at mini-camp. Most passes did not exceed 20 yards but he did have few 30 – 40 yard passes. "He's looked very, very good," coach John Fox said. "His arm looks stronger than it has ever looked." While I was skeptical about Delhomme’s future following Tommy John surgery, I now must say I like his fantasy value. Not only does he have a great receiving core coming into this year, but the Panther’s also bolstered their backfield with the addition of rookie running back Jonathon Stewart. Even though Delhomme just misses our top twelve, I strongly suggest nabbing him early as a back-up. This is a great situation for Jake, and one that could turn into an even better fantasy situation.

Donovan McNabb – QB: With critics at his doorstep daily, McNabb always finds a way to get up and go to work. McNabb sat out the Eagles last mini-camp and as usual this did not go unnoticed. Andy Reid was bombarded with questions about Donovan’s health. Why did McNabb sit out? He was simply on a pitch count and he reached it the day before. For all you haters out there, McNabb is on my hot list. When asked to compare McNabb’s health last season with this season, Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg told the Philadelphia Inquirer that there is "no comparison…. Donovan looks sharp, quick…. He's throwing the ball well. Last year at this time, there was still a lot of work to be done physically with that injury." Donovan is one of many players this year that can be picked up in the later draft with a lot of upside. He falls to the bottom of the list when it comes to fantasy starters, but could easily end the year between 5 and 10 at his position.

Keith Brooking – LB: Pro Bowl linebacker Keith Brooking has recently been moved back to his natural position of outside linebacker. While Brooking has excelled playing both inside and outside, it’s safe to say his best statistical years were while he was playing on the outside. Even though other factors such as youth and defensive schemes played a large part in his increased production, Brooking is still worth watching. Keith has not logged an interception in the past two seasons. This will likely increase as will his sack total, making him a solid IDP option.


Not

Cedric Benson – RB: This one is obvious. Even though Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said the team has no immediate plans to punish RB Cedric Benson, at least until after his May 19th court date, it’s safe to say the Bears are quickly losing confidence in Benson. The fact that they drafted running back Matt Forte with their second round pick before these events says enough. The Bears are ready to move forward with or without Benson. It’s now up to Benson, as we wait and see if he can get his act together and in some way live up to his draft hype. Unless you can pick him up late, your fantasy team is better off without Benson. Once we see how his legal problems turn out, then we will update you with an exact value.

Travis Henry – RB: Coming off a disappointing '07 season, Henry stock continues to fall. Denver is returning Selvin Young and Andre Hall who have both shown potential. To the naked eye, the Broncos seem to have plenty of depth at the running back position, but Denver has recently shown interest in veterans Shaun Alexander and Dominic Rhodes. Even though Rhodes is no longer an option, this clearly indicates their disgruntlement with Henry. This very well may be nothing more than speculation, but to be on the safe side, I wouldn’t recommend reaching early for Travis Henry anytime soon. With Mike Shanahan’s reputation, this is shaping up to by a deep backfield by committee making Henry no more than 3rd option.

Fantasy Football Mock - Braylon Goes In Round 1

Mock drafts this time of year are crazy, but definitely fun to look at. Now that the NFL Draft is over, the discussion has begun regarding who should go where. Check out the latest expert mock draft I participated in, and you may be surprised to see who was drafted in Round 1, and who "fell" to me at number two overall.

The following mock draft is based on this scoring system - 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for TDs, 1 point per 10 yards rushing and/or receiving, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per reception and basic team defense scoring. There are 12 teams in this league, and each team must start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 D/ST.

Team 1 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers RB - Well, even though we've been preaching that AP should be the first overall pick in all leagues, regardless of format, there are obviously some folks out there who still think LT belongs at the top of the pack.

Team 2 (Paul Hickey) - Adrian Peterson, Vikings RB - Man, was I THRILLED to see AP fall to me at number two. In my mind, this guy is far and away the top overall choice in 2008 seasonal drafts, and I honestly would have taken Joseph Addai here if Team 1 would've chosen AP.

Team 3 - Brian Westbrook, Eagles RB - An interesting move with Addai and Steven Jackson still on the board, but the fact that the Eagles rarely run a play without Westbrook touching the ball makes this probably a pretty safe pick.

Team 4 - Tom Brady, Patriots QB - I just don't understand what some people are thinking. If this were a league awarding six points per passing TD, I could maybe understand this, but Brady's big season came a year ago. The chances of him throwing for 50+ TDs again are slim to none, and there's no reason to pick a QB in round one, with sleepers guys like Derek Anderson, Ben Roethlisberber and Donovan McNabb available later on.

Team 5 - Steven Jackson, Rams RB - Jackson should NEVER fall further than this in 2008 seasonal drafts. He'll be the absolute centerpiece of Al Saunders' offense, and with Orlando Pace healthy, a 1,500 yard, 70+ reception season isn't out of the question.

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