Ultimate Draft Strategy

A few months ago we published an article (Average Draft Position Analysis) which compared average draft position with end of year statistics in order to find a general draft strategy. In this article, we will use the results obtained from that study and compare them with this year’s average draft position as well as our rankings in order to offer a much more precise drafting strategy for 2008.

Early to Middle 1^st Round: One of the guidelines was to draft a RB if you have one of the first seven picks. This year the top seven RBs are Tomlinson, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook, Addai, Gore and Barber. Ultimate FF Strategy is not so high on Jackson and Gore but we are on Portis who is currently at number eight in average draft position. We would therefore recommend drafting Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, Barber and Portis in the order that you prefer before going to any other position.

Late 1^st and Early 2^nd Round: As mentioned in the other article, after the top seven or eight running backs it becomes very hard to predict which ones will perform. Since 2004, only 25% of the RBs drafted between picks seven and twelve end up finishing in the top twelve RBs at the end of the year. Remember that this is the danger zone for running backs so you will want to go with the safest options. The choices are Johnson, Lynch, McGahee, Grant and Jones-Drew. Ultimate FF Strategy has McGahee and Jones-Drew as low risk players and Grant could also be an option but if Portis drops to the late first then there is no doubt that he should be your pick. We do not recommend going with Brady even though he is by far the best QB since there are later constraints with RBs and WRs. If you draft Brady in the first it would mean you have to go with two RBs in the second and third and there is little value in rounds four and five at WR so it would leave you with a very thin group of receivers. For that reason we very highly recommend getting Moss or Wayne who are the obvious top two at WR.

Middle to Late 2^nd Round: In a PPR, RBs 8 to 13 average only five more points than RBs 14 to 20. This means that at this point unless a RB you really like (Jones-Drew would be a good pick in the late 2^nd) falls, you should go with your favorite WR amongst Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Colston. We recommend to stay away from risky options like Edwards and A. Johnson and would likely draft Colston before any of those guys but that is for you to decide in your draft.

3^rd Round: One of our important guidelines to follow was to have two RBs by the end of the third round so unless you went with two RBs with your first two picks you will have to draft one here. At this point your options are probably Maroney, Bush, Lewis, Jacobs, Brown and Parker. Brown and Jacobs are big gambles but they could really payoff; all we can say is that if you choose to go with one of those two then make sure you get a good third RB. If you did go with two RBs in the first then you should go with the last one of the top four QBs which are Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees or a WR. The problem for WRs at this point is that there is generally little value because WRs 11 to 20 average only 19 more points than WRs 21 to 30 in a PPR. The difference this year however is that the three WRs being drafted in the late third round are Burress, Holt and Welker and we believe all three are pretty low risk options. If you are drafting earlier in the round then Steve Smith and Chad Johnson are also possibilities.

4^th Round: At this point there is little value at WR and the players being drafted are not ones we particularly like so we strongly recommend staying away from WRs at this point unless Burress, Holt or Welker falls. At QB there is a possibility that Brees would still be available and he would be a good pick at this point if you like him. If he is not then we recommend staying away from QBs because there is a big drop after the top four and history has shown that there is good value in later rounds. At RB, history has shown that RBs 21 to 31 are all quite similar so we would recommend waiting unless your first two RBs are quite injury-prone then McFadden and James could be pretty good picks. This leaves us with the TE position where we believe that Jason Witten is well above the other ones and he would be a very good pick in the fourth round.

5^th round: This is another difficult round because there is still little value at QB and WR. At this point we recommend drafting either a top four TE which are Witten, Gates, Winslow and Gonzalez or your third RB depending on that you did in the fourth round. Ultimate FF Strategy is very high on Thomas Jones this year and he is an excellent pick in the fifth round. Just make sure that you should have your third RB by the end of the fifth round.

6^th and 7^th round: These are the rounds where there is good value at the WR position and you should draft two WRs. Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are our favorites but White, Chambers, Driver, Moss, Curtis, Gonzalez and Galloway are also good options if you prefer them. Javon Walker and Bernard Berrian are also both being drafted around this point but we have them much lower in our rankings and would recommend staying away from them. You may also want to start considering drafting your starting QB; Cutler is a good pick in the seventh round.

8^th round: You will want to make sure you have your starting QB by the 8^th round. Cutler and Garrard are our favorite guys at this point; Manning and Bulger are also possible options. We are also big fans of Aaron Rodgers who you should be able to get in the ninth round but he is still a very good pick in the eighth round. Make sure you have all your starting wide receivers by the end of the eighth round.

9^th and 10^th round: By the end of the tenth round you must have your starting TE and your starting QB. In these rounds we like Rodgers, Schaub and Young at QB and at TE we love Scheffler and Daniels. From this point on there are few guidelines to follow other than waiting on your kicker and defense. Simply make sure you have enough backups at each position and be careful about bye weeks as well.

Drafting in Non-PPR leagues: There is not too much difference in terms of strategy if you are drafting in a league that does not give a point for each reception. The only change we would make is in the third round we would recommend drafting a QB before that group of WRs but Moss and Wayne are still good options in the first or second round.

Drafting in a 3 or 6 points per TD pass league: If your league only gives 3 point for each TD pass then stay away from the QBs in the third round and if it gives 6 points per TD pass then similar to a non-PPR league we would highly recommend Romo or Brees before a WR.

Diamond Dames

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Top 10 Undervalued Players

#10 Torry Holt: He has finished in the top 15 for wide receivers for eight consecutive seasons and has only missed two games in his entire NFL career. Last season, which many considered a disappointing season, he had the same number of receptions and yards as the previous year but his touchdowns dropped from ten to seven. He finished 11th for wide receivers in a year where the Rams offense was a disaster because of injuries. Put all that together and you have a wide receiver that cannot finish worse than 11th but who has consistently shown that he can be a top five receiver.

#9 Willis McGahee: He finished last season as the ninth best running back in his first year with Baltimore and in the 14 full games that he played, he averaged 20.6 carries per game. New Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball to his running backs as we saw with Tomlinson in San Diego and last season with Ronnie Brown who had 39 receptions in only seven games. The retirement of Ogden may be a concern but his replacement, Jared Gaither, is a very good run blocker which may make the Ravens run the ball even more than last year. McGahee has only missed three games in four seasons and he will at least get as many carries as last season so he can only improve if we consider the improved line and the Cam Cameron factor.

#8 Jerricho Cotchery / Laveranues Coles: They are both being drafted in the 25 to 30 range for wide receivers even though Cotchery finished 20th last year and Coles was as good as him in points per game. The Jets line is much improved this season with the additions of Faneca and Woody as well as Ferguson and Mangold who should improve in their third season. The quarterback play is still inconsistent but it cannot be worse than it was last season. Both of these receivers have been good for two consecutive seasons so they are pretty safe picks and they also have a lot of upside because of the much improved offensive line.

#7 Maurice Jones-Drew: He is once again being drafted much lower than he should be because everyone fears that Fred Taylor will continue to steal carries away from him. He was the 8th best running back in 2006 and the 11th best in 2007 and he is only 23 years old. Those numbers alone should make him a top ten pick but his average draft position is about 13th for running backs. If you now consider that he has reached those numbers with less than 170 carries, that Fred Taylor is 32 years old, that the Jaguars line is better than last season and that it has a lot of depth, it makes him a very good safe pick in the late first or early second round.

#6 David Garrard: His numbers from weeks 11 to 16 when his offensive line was the same as it will be this year would have made him the ninth best quarterback and only ten points behind the fifth best. Of the eight quarterbacks above him, one retired, one lost his best offensive lineman and one had 70 more pass attempts than his average of the past three years. The additions of Porter and Williamson give Garrard more options this season and the depth on the offensive line makes him a pretty safe pick. The concern with Garrard is that he has yet to play 16 games in a season but it is also only the second time that he enters the season as the starter. Nonetheless, he should finish much higher than number 13, his current average draft position.

#5 Owen Daniels: He was the seventh best tight end last season in only his second NFL season and had only three touchdowns. Schaub played eight full games last season and Daniels had 41 receptions for 528 yards and 1 TD in those games which would have made him the fifth best tight end over 16 games. He is currently being drafted as the 11th best tight end which means as long as his numbers decrease by less than 10% he will be a good pick. That is a little ridiculous if you consider that he is 25 years old and his projected numbers over 16 games with Schaub are 25% higher than his actual statistics from last season.

#4 Aaron Rodgers: His average draft position is about 18th at the moment for quarterbacks even though he is on one of the best teams in the NFC. You can find a full article that explains why we believe Aaron Rodgers is much better than that here. If we assume Rodgers will run for about 150 yards and a touchdown which should not be too hard to do for him, his passing numbers only have to be 70% of what Favre’s were last season for him to finish above his average draft position.

#3 Tony Scheffler: He became the starting tight end for Denver in week 5 and still finished the year as the 11th best tight end. Over the past two seasons he has started 17 games at tight end and had 61 receptions for 768 yards and 9 touchdowns; those numbers make him a top six or seven tight end. Furthermore, last season Denver was missing two of its best offensive linemen for most of the season and their starting quarterback was playing with diabetes and did not know it. There are slight concerns about his foot injury but the season is still three months away and it should not be a concern when you are drafting a potential top five tight end in the tenth round.

#2 Marques Colston: Only ten wide receivers finished in the top 20 in each of the past two seasons and Colston only played 14 games in 2006. He is by far the best wide receiver on an offense that was first in passing yards in 2006 and third in 2007. If we look at the receivers who finished above Colston last season, Moss and Wayne should still be above; Owens is 35 years old and could slow down; Edwards could very well be a one-year wonder considering similar receivers dropped by an average of 16%; Fitzgerald has been inconsistent; Houshmandzadeh and Johnson were only slightly better and there are quite a few question marks in Cincinnati this year. On average only three or four wide receivers will remain in the top ten the following year and Colston is one of the few safe options in the top 10 from last year, yet he is only being drafted in the early third round.

#1 Clinton Portis: In six seasons in the NFL, Portis has never had less than 250 points per 16 games in a point per reception league. He will be only 27 years old when the season begins, he was the third best running back last season, he has missed only 12 games in six seasons in the NFL and yet he is only being drafted as the eighth or ninth best running back. Moreover, last season the Redskins were missing its two best run blockers on the offensive line for most of the season. New head coach Jim Zorn will probably use an offense similar to Seattle’s where he was quarterback coach for the past few seasons and Alexander managed to put up very solid numbers from 2001 to 2006 in that offense. Portis is a much safer option with your first round pick than someone like Marion Barber who has not proven much or Gore, Jackson and Johnson who have poor offensive lines. Portis is not a spectacular pick but remember that since 2004, only 7 of the 28 running backs that were drafted between picks 6 and 12 finished the season in the top 12. This means that if you make a pick in the middle to late first round, it has a 25% chance of living up to those expectations; Portis has shown much more consistency than any other running back taken in the middle to late first round.

Week 11 Review of The All American Home Run Derby

Week 11 Review
That Philly 2nd baseman still leagues the league and our pool with 22 homeruns. Gonzalez, Berkman and Uggla are all 3 off the pace and Braun, Hamilton, Burrell and Dunn are 4 back.
We have 13 players between 14 and 17 homeruns. Howard has 17, Pujols 16, Soriano 15 and Jason Bay 14. Pujols and Soriano won’t be moving from those totals for a few weeks.
Twenty- one players fall between 10 and 13 HR. Phillips has 13, Wright and C. Young are at 12, ARod is up to 11 and Corey Hart has increased his total to 10 homeruns.
The 6 to 9 HR group is 32 players strong. Kinsler has turned around a slow start and now has 9 bombs. Rowand has 8 in his new city. Griffey Jr has 7 so far and Hawpe has returned from the DL with a bang and now has 6 HR.
There are 19 underachievers with 5 homeruns or less. Fukudome hit 3 in his last 10 games to raise his total to 5. Bruce ended a 10 game homerun drought with his 4th HR. Blalock wants to return this week and add to his total of 3. A. Jones is the only player with 2 and Andy LaRoche has returned and gotten on the board with 1. Martinez, Fields and Bonds are the last 3 sporting the Goose Egg.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Candy - 6/15

June 15th, 2008  JunkyardJake.Com

Brandon Marrow, Seattle Mariners, RP  
JJ Putz has been getting himself injured more often than a rodeo clown this season, and at this point, fantasy owners who drafted Putz in the early rounds this year would probably appreciate seeing him drop-kicked over a fence by an irate wild horse. Even when Putz has been 'healthy' he's been pretty damn awful anyway, with a 5.21 ERA, and 3 blown saves. But enough about Putz's sorry situation, the good news is that the Mariners have a replacement closer in Brandon Marrow, who looks to have some real potential. Marrow can overpower hitters with his 98 MPH fastball, and has enough control over his off-speed pitches to effectively close games and is worth an immediate pickup.
Available in 53% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Andy LaRoche, LA Dodgers, 3B/1B  
Baseball has it's subtle mysteries like 'how does Tim Wakefield even get anyone out throwing 35 MPH?', and 'why is it that when Bobby Cox is captured on camera during a TBS Braves game broadcast, is he always spitting something out onto the dugout floor ?'. Another such mystery is of course, 'who will get regular playing time for the rest of 2008 at the Dodgers corner infield spots ?' If Andy LaRoche, called up recently from AAA Las Vegas, can finally deliver on the potential he has shown as a top prospect, then he should eventually be a significant factor. Blake DeWitt is also a good young player, but LaRoche offers the advantage of switch-hitting versatility, and also should emerge as a better source of HR power.
Available in 83% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Chase Headley, San Diego Padres, OF/3B  

After bouncing him back to the minors for no apparent reason in April, the Padres have finally recalled Chase Headley this week. Given that Justin Huber and Paul McAnulty failed to distinguish themselves as household names out in left-field, that is probably where the Padres will stick the young prospect for now. Chase Headley, who also plays 3B, looks like a natural .300 hitter, with possible 30 HR power (realistically 20-25 HR given the Petco Park curse), so he is definitely worth a pickup, especially in NL-Only leagues.
Available in 77% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Armando Galarraga, Detriot Tigers, SP  
Galarraga doesn't have spectacular stuff- he usually brings his above-average fastball at around 92-94 MPH, and has a decent slider and change-up. Regardless, he has demonstrated that he belongs in the Tigers rotation, with a 6-2 record, a 3.31 ERA and an impressive WHIP of 1.03. The young righty probably won't keep up his current pace, but there is no reason to believe he will be a liability in mixed leagues, and his spot in the rotation seems fairly secure now that Jeremy Bonderman has been lost for the season.
Available in 52% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 2B  
Despite having that distinctive look of a #87th ranked 145 lb welterweight contender from a country you can't pronounce, evidently Ramriez was a 20 HR hitter down in Cuba. In the 3rd week of May, he was hitting about .195, but after some unspecified revelation, he has boosted his average up to around .290. Juan Uribe has recently returned from the D.L. to attempt to reclaim his stake to the White Sox 2B job, but he is hitting .198. Odds would have it that Ramirez has earned significant playing time, so he makes a solid mixed-league pickup if he can continue to hit with decent power.

Available in 55% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Other Players To Consider:
Jose Castillo,SF Giants,3B  
Available in 84% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Ramon VazquezTexas Rangers,3B  
Available in 85% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Maicer Izturis,LA Angels,2B  
Available in 61% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Yuniesky Betancourt,Seattle Mariners,SS  
Available in 58% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Ricky Nolasco,Florida Marlins,SP  
Available in 78% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Free Agent Running Backs

In an expert fantasy draft I recently participated in I noticed an interesting trend that I thought was worth mentioning. There was not one single free agent running back targeted in the draft. In an 18 round draft, I was able to pick up Shaun Alexander in round 14 and Kevin Jones in round 17. Of course there is good reason to be wary in regards to these runners. Shaun Alexander is obviously past his prime and Kevin Jones has had more than his fair share of injury woes over the past few years. But when placed in the proper offense, both of these players have the ability to make a positive contribution to a fantasy team. Both Denver and Chicago are in the market for a runner to supplement their current roster and both Jones and Alexander have the ability to come in and make a case at the starting job. I especially like Jones potential. He has been effective in the past when healthy and although there are plenty of reasons to doubt his ability to stay healthy, if Jones is available late in drafts, there is very little downside to taking a chance on him. Jones is planning a league-wide workout at the end of the month and in the small preview that Jones did give, he showed a solid burst and even ran the shuffle to prove his ability to make sharp cuts. If you have a very early draft, perhaps in a keeper format, you may want to give Jones consideration. Even if Jones signs somewhere before your fantasy draft, it is likely he will fall to later rounds because of his injury risk. Don’t reach at all for Jones, but if he should fall to you in a late round, take a shot on him. You may like what you get.

Jr. Finally does it!

Griffey Joins Elite Club
With the emergence of Joey Votto and the Cinderella run of Jay Bruce, it was easy to forget the real story for the Cincinnati Reds coming into the 2008 MLB Season.
When will Ken Griffey Jr make history? How long until he joins a select few of baseball’s greatest hitters? What day will he hit #600?
Griffey seemed to be stuck on #599 for far longer than he had hoped, but on Monday, the wait was over. Junior joined Sammy Sosa, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays as only the 6th player in MLB history to hit 600 HR.
With 10 more homeruns, he’ll pass Sammy Sosa for 5th place on the All Time HR list, but that’s probably about as far as “The Kid” will make it.
He needs 61 more to pass Willie Mays and over 100 to catch Ruth, Aaron and Bonds.
What if Griffey had been able to stay healthy for his entire career? For the young man that dominated the 90’s, it only seemed like a matter of time until he was crowned as the greatest homerun hitter of all time.
In Seattle, Griffey will always be known as a Gold Glove centerfielder with the most beautiful swing that’s ever made contact with a ball.
In Cincinnati, he’ll always be known as the former Gold Glove centerfielder that couldn’t seem to round the bases without reaching for his hamstring.
From 2001-2006, Griffey missed 418 games. Those 418 games may be the difference between being one of 6 players to hit 600 HR and being the best homerun hitter ever.
If you compare his games played to Barry Bonds, Junior comes up 547 games short. Considering that he’s hit a homerun every 4 games over the course of his career, we’re talking about 137 HR lost. That would put his current total at 737 and counting. The 137 HR total is probably actually selling him short based on the fact that the 5 seasons prior to 2001, Griffey hit an average of 49.8 HR per year.
While it’s easy to see how Ken Griffey Jr could have been the best ever, just sit back and enjoy the fact that you have been able to witness a true legend of the game for nearly 2 decades.