Rodgers in the top 10

One of the biggest questions for fantasy football players entering the 2008 season is to determine when to draft Aaron Rodgers. Favre finished the season as the 7th best ranked quarterback in 2008 and the Packers still have an excellent offensive line and a very deep group of wide receivers. The following article will explain why Aaron Rodgers is ranked at number 10 in Ultimate FF Strategy’s 2008 Quarterback Rankings.

The first thing to look at is historical statistics to see how other quarterbacks performed in their first season as a starter. In order to find only the quarterbacks that were full-time starters for the first time in their career, we will only consider quarterbacks who did not play more than five games in previous seasons and who attempted over 400 passes in the next season. Rodgers is entering his fourth season in the NFL so we will only look at quarterbacks who became full-time starters in years three, four or five. There are 14 quarterbacks that respect these criterions, the latest ones being Derek Anderson in 2007, Philip Rivers and Rex Grossman in 2006 and Jake Delhomme in 2003. Those 14 quarterbacks averaged 233 fantasy points based on their passing statistics alone and three of them had over 280 fantasy points. It is a little difficult to compare Rodgers to those quarterbacks but we know that Green Bay is a very solid offense and Rodgers is in a very good situation. Those numbers show us that quarterbacks who have some backup experience and become starters generally have some pretty good success in their first year.

The Packers offensive line is one of the best in the league and you can find my in depth analysis on their situation here. In short, the line improved in run blocking as the season progressed, is pretty young and has good depth. The downside of this line is that the guards are not very strong and will get pushed into the backfield which was not much of an issue with Favre because he gets rid of the ball so quickly but it could be more difficult for Rodgers. They gave up 19 sacks last season and we can probably expect Rodgers to be sacked about 25-30 times this year but he will get better as the season progresses.

It is difficult to evaluate Rodgers because he only had 28 pass attempts last season but he was very impressive in the game against the Cowboys when he completed 18 of his 26 passes for 201 yards and a touchdown. It would be too much to expect from Rodgers to have that kind of performance every week but it gives us an idea of how good he can be. The Packers had 4,400 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season so we will use very conservative projections that the passing yards will decrease by 20%, the touchdowns by 25% and interceptions will increase by 25%. Those numbers would give Rodgers 3,600 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions for 249 fantasy points, slightly above the average of 233 that we found earlier. However, one aspect that we did not account for in any projections thus far is the running game and Rodgers is much more mobile than Brett Favre. So far Rodgers has attempted 59 passes in his NFL career and has rushed eight times (excluding the three kneel downs) or about one time for every seven pass attempts. We will once again use very conservative numbers and project that he will rush one time for every ten pass attempts which means he would carry the ball about 50 times. The NFL average for quarterbacks is about 3.0 yards per carry and one touchdown per 32 rushing attempts. This would mean that Rodgers would have about 150 rushing yards and one touchdown for a total of 270 fantasy points. Those numbers would have made Rodgers the 10th best fantasy quarterback last season.

The projections used to obtain those numbers were very conservative and last season the Packers quarterbacks had 333 fantasy points so there is potential for Rodgers to have a lot more than 270. There is some risk because it is his first season as starter but he is still a pretty safe pick because there is good depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver so they should be able to deal with injuries. In conclusion, Rodgers is a safer pick than many people think with much more potential than quarterbacks selected around him in fantasy drafts so he should be a very good pick.

Find out where we rank all the other quarterbacks:
Full Quarterback Rankings and Projections

Dynasty Value vs. Seasonal Results

Andre Johnson's recent knee injury prompted some serious discussion on our forums regarding his fantasy trade value. He happens to be the perfect example of a player who has solid dynasty value in spite of his most recent injury situation, due to the fact that when healthy, his ceiling is so high - and he has plenty more years left to play. The problem is that his seasonal outlook is very different.

On the other side of the coin, guys like Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, Marvin Harrison, Donald Driver, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez and several more are losing their dynasty luster, but maintaining solid season value. Why? The concept is simple.

Seasonal owners really only need to project and predict one thing when drafting and making roster moves - results. Keeper and dynasty owners need to also take into account value - especially when it comes to inaugural drafts. The owner than fills out his team with oodles of young-ish running backs and wide receivers will be smiling several months later as his players pan out, not only because several of them will be performing for him, but also because just about all of them will be trade-able. The problem with a guy like Larry Johnson right now in dynasty leagues, is that it's hard to get rid of him. He has caught a small case of Shaun Alexander syndrome.

Smart owners would go after Andre Johnson and try to get him "on the cheap" right now. This leads me to a dynasty league commandment - don't sell your stud players at their low point. For example, last season, Steven Jackson was a frustrating player to own at the beginning of the season, due a groin tear, and injuries that decimated his offensive line. I'm sure it was tempting for many of his long term owners to deal him and try and get some solid "win-now" talent.

Read the rest of this blog at No-Offseason.com

Joseph Addai at Number 2?

For many fantasy football managers, the number one and two selections are both obvious and although I do agree with the consensus number one selection in LaDainian Tomlinson, I believe there is a better selection than Adrian Peterson at number two. Many believe Adrian Peterson is the second best running back but in the following article I will breakdown why I believe that Joseph Addai could be a better selection.
First of all let us take a look at historical statistics for players similar to Addai and Peterson and find out how they performed in their next season. Since 1983, there have been 15 running backs that had between 250 and 350 fantasy points per game (in a point per reception system) in their second season and had over 200 carries in their third season (it is safe to assume that Addai will have over 200 carries in 2008). The average improvement for those 15 running backs was 6% which is quite impressive. To put that number in perspective, if we apply the same criterions but look at running backs in their third to sixth NFL season, they decrease by an average of 6%. Furthermore, of those 15 running backs there are six that improved by 13% or more and had over 350 fantasy points in their third season, Steven Jackson in 2006 being the latest one. On the other hand, there are three that decreased by more than 10%, the latest being Frank Gore last season. If we apply the same criterions to rookie running backs we notice that on average they improve by a very impressive 12%. If we only apply these numbers we would project Adrian Peterson to have 330 fantasy points while Addai would have 311. This is the main reason why most people believe Peterson is the obvious choice at number two but there are some other factors to look at.
Those 6% and 12% improvements are a good general rule but it is also important to take a look at how Addai and Peterson can get those improvements. There are 41 players who had between 250 and 350 fantasy points in one of their first three NFL seasons and had over 200 carries in their next season. Those 41 players improved by an average of 4.6%. However, five of those players had over 5.0 yards per carry and their fantasy points decreased by an average of 2% which is a concern for Adrian Peterson who had 5.6 yards per carry in his rookie year. It is a small sample size but the drop in performance is also 2% for the 12 players who had over 4.5 yards per carry. Of those 12 players, there are five that improved by 10% or more but none by 20% or more and there are four whose number of points decreased by over 20%. If we now take a look at the 19 players who had between 3.8 and 4.4 yards per carry (Addai had 4.1), they improved by an average of 10.5%. There are 8 of those 19 that improved by more than 10%, including six by more than 20% and only one had a decrease in performance of more than 10%. If we take the average of these numbers and the numbers found in the previous paragraph we get an average improvement of 5% for Peterson and 8% for Addai. There are no other major statistical differences between these two so we can now look at other reasons why each might be better or worse in 2008.
In 2007, Indianapolis lost their starting left tackle Tony Ugoh from weeks 8 to 12, starting right tackle Ryan Diem from weeks 12 to 17, backup tackle Daniel Federkeil from weeks 9 to 17 as well as Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez for most of the season. Addai missed the week 5 game but in the other five games where everyone was healthy, Addai had 100 carries for 492 yards, 5 touchdowns and 15 receptions for 82 yards. If we project these numbers over a 16 games season it would give Addai 326 fantasy points in a point per reception scoring system and 278 in a non-PPR league. The Colts did lose their starting right guard Jake Scott this off-season which will hurt but the impact will be much less than for those injuries because his replacement will have an entire training camp to work with the line. On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings did not have a single injury to their offensive line in 2007 and lost their starting fullback in Tony Richardson in the off-season. An interesting statistic is that in the nine games that Richardson has missed over the past two seasons, the Vikings averaged only 4.1 yards per carry as opposed to the 5.0 yards per carry average when he played. Thomas Tapeh should be an adequate replacement but those statistics are quite impressive for Richardson and his loss will hurt the Vikings. Another factor to consider is that starting left tackle Bryant McKinnie is likely to be suspended by the NFL for the beginning of the season because of off the field issues. If McKinnie is suspended it will create inconsistency along the line for the first few games and will hurt the running game. The Vikings did add Bernard Berrian who is a deep threat and could help the running game slightly but the effect is likely minimal.
The final aspects to look at are the injuries and threats on the team to steal carries from these two running backs. Addai missed only one game in two NFL seasons and had a few minor injuries in college that sidelined him for a couple of games. On the other hand, Peterson missed two games in his rookie season in the NFL, had a collarbone injury that sidelined him for a few weeks in 2006 and a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for four games the year before. In terms of carries, the Colts did add Dominic Rhodes and Mike Hart in the off-season which is likely to limit Joseph Addai’s carries to somewhere between 260 and 300 but Addai should continue to receive the goal line carries. Peterson had 238 carries in 14 games and should receive more this year but the Vikings limited him last season after his injury and will likely try to keep him under 20 carries per game this season. Peterson is probably going to have around 280 carries and like Addai he is quite unlikely to receive more than 300.
Addai and Peterson had a very similar number of fantasy points per game last season but the average fantasy manager expects Peterson to improve more than Addai because he is one year younger. As we saw in the first part of this article it is a good assumption but Peterson does not have much room to improve. Peterson would have had 272 carries over 16 games last season and it is hard to believe he will get much more than that this season. Moreover, he had 5.6 yards per carry and as we saw in the second part that number is expected to drop. He is also unlikely to improve much over his 13 touchdowns this season because the Vikings offense remains pretty average. On the other hand is Joseph Addai who is on a Colts offense that was devastated by injuries last season and he has plenty of room to improve in yards per carry and receptions. In conclusion, I believe that Joseph Addai is by far the better choice in a point per reception league and although it is pretty close in a non-PPR league I would also go with Addai because he is a much safer pick since he is more durable and plays on a better team.

Full Running Back Rankings and Projections (Point Per Reception)
Full Running Back Rankings and Projections (No Point Per Reception)

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Candy - 5/24

May 24th, 2008  JunkyardJake.Com

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds, OF  

According to many scouts, Bruce is baseball's #1 prospect, and it's hard to argue with this evaluation when he is currently tearing up the triple-A league with a .369 average to go along with 10 HR's and 8 stolen bases in 45 games.   The Reds are fairly deep in the outfield with Adam Dunn, Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel and Ken Griffey Jr., so it may take a trade for Bruce to see regular playing time, but he is worth picking up anyway, just in case the Reds do the right thing and start rebuilding this year.

Available in 46% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Chris Perez, St.Louis Cardinals, RP  

In between occasional physical breakdowns, Jason Isringhausen has been one of baseballs most reliable closers. This season however, Isringhausen has been about as predictable as Britney Spears trying to parallel park her Hummer on Whilshire Blvd. Izzy's latest meltdown involved a scuffle with a TV set in Tony LaRussa's office and a trip to the DL with a hand injury. Chris Perez, with a fastball that has been clocked at 97-100 mph, is considered the future closer for the Cardinals, and the future may be coming up soon.  Perez was very impressive in the minors, amassing 55 saves over the past three years with 1.3 K's per inning.

Available in 81% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers, SP  

You are probably tired of hearing about Clayton Kershaw, the mythical prospect that the Dodgers keep threatening to bring up from their minor league system.  Well, his long-awaited callup is expected to happen this week, and we will finally see how the highly-regarded 2006 1st round left-hander handles major-league hitters.  It's a good bet that Kershaw has a very bright future ahead of him, as he is a rare lefty that can throw consistently in the mid-90's and he has a amazing curveball that can pick your pocket, pull a $20 from your wallet, return two five's and a roll of quarters, and then still land over the plate for a called strike three.

Available in 56% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates, 1B  

Many fantasy teams gave up on Laroche during his injury-plagued April, but he is a fairly solid option at 1st base who could easily deliver 25 HR's and 100 RBI.  Remember, he has been a notoriously slow-starter his entire career who seemingly doesn't start hitting until the summer months. In 2006, he batted .200 in April, but had an amazing July and August where he batted .357 with 14 HRs.  It was the same story in 2007, when he hit an embarrassing .133 in April, then cranked it up during July and August with a .336 average and 10 homers.

Available in 53% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Jose Guillen, KC Royals, OF/DH  

Guillen had a dreadful April, hitting .192, but he has wielded a potent bat lately with a .352 average and 18 RBI's during the month of May.  At 32, Guillen is not a young lad, but he is the most frequent #4 hitter in the Royals lineup, and it helps that the Royals use him in the DH spot a couple times week, giving him some time-off from fielding wear and tear.  He is certainly not the type of player that will carry your team, but you can probably expect around a .285 average, 25 HRs and 95 RBIs, which isn't bad if your current fantasy outfield consists of Andruw Jones, Emil Brown and Austin Kearns.

Available in 44% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Other Players To Consider:
Shane Victorino,Philadelphia Phillies,OF  
Available in 33% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Akinori Iwamura,Tampa Bay Rays,2B  
Available in 52% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Taylor Buchholz,Colorado Rockies,RP  
Available in 91% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh Pirates,SP  
Available in 59% of all CBSSportsline leagues.
Billy Butler,KC RoyalsDH/1B  
Available in 51% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Rumor Has It...

Calvin Johnson To See More Looks! Surprisingly, the departure of Mike Martz is great news for the young Calvin Johnson. Sadly, Johnson never truly benefited from Martz pass happy style. For some reason Martz has always had an attachment to players he coached in the past. For example, in 06’ Mike Furrey left the Rams to join Martz in Detroit and had a great season pulling in 98 balls for 1086 yards and 6 touchdowns. In 07’, Shaun McDonald was added to the list as he also left the Rams to play under Martz. He had a surprising solid season as well, leading his entire team in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Our sources are now telling us that both Furrey and McDonald will have smaller roles under new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto. First and foremost, Colletto plans to run far more than Martz . Secondly, when passing, Colletto plans on targeting his two gifted receivers, Roy Williams and especially Calvin Johnson. It’s about time! Both tower over most defensive backs and both have exceptional speed to compliment their size.

Fantasy Spin: This is great news for the entire Lions offense. Last year, Detroit’s opponents where able to double both Johnson and Williams completely disrespecting the Lions’ running game. This forced Kitna to excessively target his slot receivers. Colletto’s commitment to the run will force teams to respect the run and will open up the field on the outside. This increases the fantasy value of every player on the Lions’ offense. Roy Williams, in our eyes, is a solid second wide receiver. Some may say he still belongs in the top 12 but we disagree. There are some inconsistencies in his resume. Williams has been in the league for 4 years, but has played a full 16 games just one time. Throughout these four years, he is only averaging about 60 receptions and 900 yards a season. Considering the many offensive changes taking place in Detroit, this may be his year, but until we see something substantial from Williams, we are perfectly happy drafting him as our second receiver as opposed to drafting him for potential as a late first receiver . Johnson on the other hand is someone we are very excited about. He will inevitably see a substantial increase in looks and catches. Last year Johnson was targeted 95 times. Expect that number to jump up into the 130’s, easily giving him the opportunity to pull in 85 balls. We also like Johnson as a WR2 and if forced to choose between the two, would suggest passing on Williams, possibly filling another position, and targeting Johnson a few picks later.


Croyle Winning His Team Over. Croyle enters the 08’ season with 6 starts under his belt, all of which ended in a loss. All eyes are on Brodie Croyle as he attempts to prove to his team and coaches that he can succeed at the pro level, and things seem to be off to a great start. “Brodie’s looking good, man,” wide receiver Dwayne Bowe said. “He threw a go route, back shoulder, against the wind. It was on the money. I was like, ‘Dude, you’re ready. It’s on.’ ” Croyle will enter the year as the Chiefs starting quarterback and while some still lack confidence in his ability, Croyle does not. “He’s like, in the huddle, eyes focused, everything on one accord,” Bowe said. “He’s ready.” His confidence and play merit the trust of fellow teammate Dwayne Bowe and as we draw closer to the season, we can expect this trend to continue.

Fantasy Spin: Croyle still has a lot of work to do before he elevates his play to warrant consideration from a fantasy perspective, but this new found confidence is great news for the likes of Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. Johnson suffered greatly from the inconsistencies at quarterback as defenses stacked the line. We expect Johnson to be back to his old form, definitely ranking in the top 10 at his position. Gonzalez has always been reliable averaging 78 catches and 950 yards a year over the past 10 seasons. We don’t expect anything to change. The Chiefs most impressive performance from last year was Dwayne Bowe. With horrible play from his quarterbacks, the rookie somehow managed to rack up 995 yards and 5 scores. As Kansas City solidifies their weak areas, we can only expect an increase from Bowe making him an intriguing WR2.


Marshawn Lynch Looks Quicker and Stronger! According to Buffalo’s coaching staff, there is a notable difference in Lynch’s quickness and strength when compared to the previous year. After spending an entire year in an NFL strength and conditioning program Lynch is in the best shape of his career. He has also has added a new workout to his schedule. “Something that's been helping me out a lot is this pool workout I've been doing," said Lynch. "It's running underwater and swimming laps. It's just a little something that I like to do on the side." Lynch also believes Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert’s high energy offense also plays a part in his new look. "With the new wrinkles that he has added, speeding up the tempo a little bit, it's exciting," said Lynch. "It keeps you on your toes and you can never even try to take a play off because you'll get left behind so fast."

Fantasy Spin: Unfortunately, Lynch’s superb rookie season was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson’s even more impressive season. On only 13 starts, Lynch ran for 1115 yards and 7 touchdowns. If the rumors are true and Lynch is entering the year stronger and quicker, he is a must have on all fantasy teams. He is already entering the fantasy season ranked in the top 12 at his position, so if you happen to draw one of the latter picks in your fantasy draft, be sure to target Lynch.


Jonathan Vilma Impressing Coaches. The 2004 Defensive rookie of the year, missed 9 games last season because of a knee injury. Prior to that, Vilma was averaging just over 130 tackles a season and was a dominant IDP selection. The Saint’s coaching staff is very optimistic when speaking of Jonathan Vilma. Even though he has been limited in practice, head coach Sean Payton speaking of Vilma’s performance said, “It's been very good, it's been real positive so far." If all goes well, the Saints plan to build their entire defense around Jonathan Vilma.

Fantasy Spin: Vilma’s knee surgery has many skeptical about his production and he is currently viewed as a late second option depending on where you look. This is an ideal player to target slightly earlier. In his four year career, Vilma has eclipsed the 100 tackle mark 3 times, one season even recording an impressive 173 tackles. Yes, this was all before his injury, but Vilma appears to be on track and healthy. If Vilma is able to reproduce what he accomplished in New York, you will be ecstatic with your selection.

Pitcher Streaming; When and How To Do It

I've been asked a ton about pitcher streaming and even in my expert league over at http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/ EXPERTS are streaming.

I've always maintained that there is nothing wrong with streaming. My only fix on it is you should only do it when you need to and not because you can. PS (Pitcher Streaming) does take away from the competitive nature of the game, and reduces the competition down to whoever can pick up and throw more pitchers.

Here's when you should stream. Its best to stream in H2H formats where you need to win a few categories. If you are losing or tied consider using PS. Make sure that you have no chance to win the categories that PS can hurt and that you have a chance to win the categories PS will help. PS will always help strikeouts, wins, and innings.

Its best to stream in a H2H Roto League where there is only 4 categories for starting pitchers.

My suggestion is if you need to do it, don't worry about wins. Whether or not if the pitcher is good he may not win, so why bother. Get pitchers who can strikeout. Better yet, check the pitchers who are probables that week and look at the teams they are facing. Then goto this link at MLB.com and check out which teams strikeout the most. For example, the Florida Marlins lead the league in strikeouts with 368 and second place goes to the Padres with 363. Look for starters facing teams that strikeout allot and if you are lucky a good strikeout pitcher facing a strikeout team and you are in.

There are no guarantees in PS, but we will all have to do it at some point and if you make the right pick ups it will pay off. If you don't, the damage will be done.

Todd "The True GURU" Farino
http://www.fantasybaseballsearch.com/

2008 Offensive Line Analysis & Rankings

From: Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy
The following offensive line rankings were determined based on a number of factors which include the new additions to the offensive line, injuries suffered last season, the durability of the line, the average age of the line and the depth of the line. The offensive lines have been divided in five groups and teams in each group are listed in alphabetical order. To further understand each line, click on the team name and it will lead you to a detailed analysis of the offensive line.

Click on: http://www.thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=294 to view the complete chart and analysis.