Top 10 Overvalued Players

#10 Santonio Holmes: Holmes had a very good season in 2007 finishing the year as the 24th best WR in PPR scoring while playing in only 13 games. However, historically wide receivers that have such an improvement in their second NFL season tend to disappoint in their third season. Holmes went from 143 fantasy points in his rookie season to 239 fantasy points per 16 games in his second season, a 67% improvement. 17 WRs had between 200 and 280 pts in their second year and improved by at least 20% over their rookie year's point per 16 games numbers. Their average decrease in their 3rd year is 10% and only six improved. The concern is that six of them had a decrease of more than 20% which is what makes Holmes a high risk player. Ward will be fully healthy this season and the Steelers also added Limas Sweed, the tall wide receiver that Roethlisberger wanted. Holmes will likely put up similar receptions and yards numbers per game as he did last season but he is very unlikely to have 8 touchdowns in 13 games like he did last year.

#9 Matt Hasselbeck: It is quite abnormal for a quarterback to have career high numbers like Hasselbeck did at 32 years old and those numbers should decrease in 2008. There are 13 quarterbacks who improved their performance over their two previous seasons by at least 10% between the ages of 30 and 34 years old and attempted at least 400 passes in the next season. Their average decrease in fantasy points was 13% in the next season. Hasselbeck was not any better last season than he was in his three previous seasons but he had more fantasy points because he attempted a lot more passes. This season the addition of Mike Wahle means the Seahawks will run more often in goal line situations and the much weaker group of wide receivers should also hurt Hasselbeck’s numbers. His average draft position is currently seventh and many have him ranked in the top five, much too early for him in our opinion.

#8 Michael Turner: Michael Turner was one of the biggest free agent signings in 2008 and like many others, it is difficult to project how he will perform this season. Turner is currently being drafted somewhere between 18 and 21 in most drafts but in our opinion there are simply too many question marks for him to be ranked that high. Besides the obvious concern that he has never carried the ball more than 80 times in a season, there is the concern that he will be part of a running back by committee this season. The Falcons did sign Turner to a 34.5 million deal but they also have Jerious Norwood who has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons. The Falcons only ran the ball 354 times last season and even if that number increases to 375 or 400, Norwood will have at least 125 or 150 of those which leaves Turner with about 250 carries. Furthermore, the Falcons have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The only addition to the line in the off-season was first round pick Sam Baker and he is considered a much better pass protector than a run blocker. Overall, Turner has never been a starter in the NFL, he is on a bad offense that will be using a running back by committee and is on a team that did not do much to improve its offensive line in the off-season; he is simply not worth a top 20 pick at running back.

#7 Chris Cooley: Cooley has been a perfect example of consistency at the tight end position with at least six touchdowns in each of his first four NFL seasons and between 700 and 800 yards in his last three. We are going out on a limb by having him in our top ten of overvalued players after he has shown excellent consistency but we are concerned about new Head Coach Jim Zorn’s plans. The Redskins had needs on defence and on the offensive line but yet used their first three picks in the draft to select two wide receivers and a tight end. As much as Zorn says that Cooley will still be a factor this season, he will not match last season’s numbers with three new receiving targets for Campbell to throw the ball to.

#6 Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger is the second Steelers player in our top ten and like Holmes it is a concern about touchdowns. Last season the Steelers had 34 passing and only 9 rushing touchdowns. Since 2002, 12 teams had at least 25 passing touchdowns in a season with at least 70% of their offensive touchdowns being passing touchdowns. The average decrease in percentage of passing touchdowns was 13% which would mean only 69% of the Steelers touchdowns should be through the air in 2007. If we assume that the Steelers once again have 43 offensive touchdowns it would mean Roethlisberger would have only 29 passing touchdowns, down from last season’s 33. If you also consider that the Steelers lost one of the best guards in the NFL in Alan Faneca and that they had the easiest schedule for quarterbacks last season, it makes Roethlisberger a risky pick and an overvalued player

#5 Steven Jackson: The Rams offense had to deal with injuries all of last season and it was the main reason for the team’s struggles. The line will be improved this year with everyone healthy and the addition of Jacob Bell at left guard but even with all that, Jackson should not be drafted fourth overall this season. As good as Jackson was in 2006, he was barely a top ten running back in 2005 and was only 15th last season. Jackson is a very talented back and he will get close to 300 carries and above 4.0 yards per carry once again but he is on a bad offense and will not get the touchdown numbers to be worth a top five pick. We have Jackson as the fifth best running back in our projections but he is a high risk player and as we have said many times, you are looking for a safe option with your first round pick and Jackson is far from being one.

#4 Larry Johnson: Similar to Jackson, Larry Johnson is a talented player who was once on a very good offense but is now on a bad one. The Chiefs offensive line is a big question mark with three starters who have never played an NFL game. The line should be better than last season but none of the new starters are particularly good run blockers so it will not help Johnson as much as many think it will. Johnson will still get a lot of touches but there are injury concerns and there is no way that he will come close to his touchdown numbers from 2004 and 2005 with the current offense. Johnson is another player who is being drafted too high because of his past and many fantasy football players fail to look at the current situation in Kansas City to realize that no one could be a top ten or even top fifteen running back with that offense.

#3 Carson Palmer: Many will be surprised to see Palmer at number three on our list but the Cincinnati offense is not what it was two or three years ago. Palmer was the ninth best quarterback last season and twelfth in fantasy points per game but is still being drafted at number five this season. There is no reason to believe that Palmer will be a top five quarterback this season with Chad Johnson and Levi Jones unhappy and requesting a trade. Even the best case scenario that both play for the Bengals this season, it is quite unlikely that they will perform as well as they did in the past. It simply does not make sense that people are expecting Palmer to be better than last season even though the offense did not improve in the off-season and two of the most important players on this offense are unhappy.

#2 Braylon Edwards: Edwards is very talented but last season was his first good one and he now has a lot of expectations to live up to. Many players like Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Irvin, Muhsin Muhammad, Steve Smith and Torry Holt had a decrease in performance after their first good season in the NFL. No matter which way we look at it, the average decrease for wide receivers similar to Edwards is about 15%. It is very easy to explain why this could very well happen to Edwards as well and it is because of his touchdown heavy production last season. Of the 24 wide receivers that had over 13 touchdowns in a season and played at least 14 games in the following season, only 12 had over 10 touchdowns the following year. Their average decrease in touchdowns was 42% which would mean Edwards would have about nine or ten this year; a drop like that would make Edwards about the tenth best receiver this season.

#1 Frank Gore: Gore is the third running back in our top ten who disappointed last season and that everyone expects to bounce back to the level he was at previously even though there are no signs that he will. Gore was the ninth best running back in points per 16 games last season but is being drafted as the sixth best this season. This could make sense for certain running backs but it does not for Gore in part because the 49ers offensive line will be worse in run blocking with the loss of Justin Smiley and Larry Allen. Furthermore, Mike Martz offenses in the NFL have averaged 60 to 70 carries less than they did the season before and after he arrived, not very promising for Gore. He had an exceptional season in 2006 and although he is very talented, question marks on the offensive line and with the Mike Martz offense make Frank Gore the most overvalued fantasy player in our opinion for the 2008 season.

X Factor? No, it's more like Catch Factor!

Catch Factor
In 2007, only 2 catchers hit 20 or more homeruns.
Jorge Posada has been injured and only has 3 HR, while Victor Martinez currently sits on the DL and has yet to go deep.
So how has the 2008 class of catchers improved?
There are 5 catchers that are likely to hit 20 or more homeruns, 4 guys that are on pace for 80+ RBI and 16 players batting .280 or better.
We have all seen a dominant pitcher get hot and virtually carrying a team into the postseason and even to a World Series title, but the other half of the battery may be even more important to a team’s success.
Let’s take a closer look at the top catchers (min. 200 AB) as we near the All-Star Break…
Brian McCann (Atlanta Braves)
McCann is turning in a wonderful season thus far. He’s batting .299 with 14 homeruns, tops among catchers. His 35 runs is ranks 4th and his 45 RBI put him 3rd. The Braves have disappointing with a 40-43 record, but sit just 4.5 games back in the division race.
Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins)
Mauer is batting a remarkable .322 and shows discipline at the plate evidenced by his 41 walks. He has just 3 homeruns on the year, but power has never been his game. He has contributed 32 RBI and leads all catchers with 48 runs scored. Mauer and the Twins have won 10 of the last 11 games and have closed to within 1 game of the White Sox for first in the Central.
Russell Martin (LA Dodgers)
Martin is a big reason that the Dodgers are just 2 games out of first place in the division. He’s been called upon to pick up the slack for the injured Andruw Jones and that’s exactly what he’s done. Martin has been solid all around with a .310 batting average, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 41 runs, 7 stolen bases and 44 walks.
Geovany Soto (Chicago Cubs)
Soto ranks 2nd among catchers in HR and RBI, with 13 HR and 47 RBI. He’s batting .280 with 27 runs and 37 walks. Soto has helped the Cubs to a 49-32 record. Those 49 wins are 2nd only to the Boston Red Sox.
Bengie Molina (San Francisco Giants)
Molina has been one of the lone bright spots for a Giants team that was picked to finish dead last after the loss of Barry Bonds. Molina is batting .308 with 6 HR and 25 runs scored. He has 48 RBI, which leads all catchers. The Giants don’t have the best-looking record but they are in 3rd place and 5.5 games isn’t too much to overcome.

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Drafting Trends To Avoid

It’s unfortunate, but every year fantasy players across the country continue to make the same drafting mistakes. So this is my best attempt to help you avoid doing the same in your upcoming drafts. As a Fantasy Football Indepth Platinum subscriber you receive multiple tools to help you succeed, one of which is a thorough analysis of your fantasy team and league. One of our subscribers sent me her draft results and even though she completely dominated her draft using our custom cheat sheets, I was disturbed by the lack of direction some of these other guys were working with. So here goes.

She received the 4th overall pick in a 10 team league that starts 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 3WR’s, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF with a standard scoring system. I was thrilled with her first selection of Brian Westbrook since the Philly offense, for the most part, runs their entire scheme through Westbrook. She somehow landed Willis McGahee with her second pick, I don’t now how he fell, but he did. Her starting backfield consists of two first tier players. This was a great way to start her draft. Anyways, enough ranting about her selections, this article is designed to help us avoid drafting mistakes.

So let’s take a look at my first dilemma, Reggie Bush, who has a current ADP 30.6. In this particular draft, Bush fell to 57th overall pick. I know there are a lot of haters out there and this is probably deserved. Bush has struggled at times, but who is the only sure back in New Orleans entering this year? Who is still a former number 1 overall selection with jaw dropping natural ability? Well, there’s Aaron Stecker, but is he the answer? No! We’ve all heard of Pierre Thomas, but come on, this guy only has 52 career carries. Yes, Deuce will be back and will probably play, but two blown knees do not bode well for his longevity. The answer is Reggie Bush and even though he is coming off of knee surgery, there is no reason to let him fall this far. Bush will see the field frequently, either as a running back or as a receiver. The lesson here is to never pass on exceptional value. One team in this league has Ronnie Brown and Jonathan Stewart as their two starting backs, both of whom were selected well before Bush. This particular team faces a tough road. Thankfully, our subscriber nabbed him with her 6th pick. Bush is a phenomenal third option and she will be in great shape at the running back position.

Second, be careful when selecting your tight end. In this league, Antonio Gates went 27th overall, which in my opinion, is way too high. Gates averaged 9.5 points per game in 07’. This individual passed up on the likes of Brandon Marshall (10.9 ppg), Anquan Boldin (11.6 ppg) and Santonio Holmes (10.9 ppg). He ended up with Marvin Harrison (6.1 ppg) in round 5 as his WR2, an extremely precarious situation. First of all, if you believe Gates is the lone man atop the top tight end list, you are sadly mistaken. Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow and Dallas Clark are young and on the rise. Take for example Dallas Clark (8.5 ppg), who was selected in round 7 with the 61st overall selection. If this person had passed on Gates and selected Marshall, Holmes, or Boldin, he then would have been able to pick up Clark in a later round. Doing the math, the combination of Clark and one of the three receivers would still average at least 4 more ppg than his Harrison and Gates combo. The subtleties of fantasy football can either make you or brake you. Make you sure you pay attention to the smaller things.

Finally, do not draft a kicker early! This, in reality is probably the most frustrating habit of all because it can so easily be avoided. I don’t how many times I have to repeat myself, but it simply doesn’t make sense. In this particular draft, someone drafted Nick Folk in the 9th round with the 81st selection and Shayne Graham with the 83rd selection. They passed on guys like Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones, and Kevin Smith. Nauseating, isn’t it? I’m sure you agree that all three backs are solid additions to any team. Our subscriber was able to capitalize and take advantage of the stupidities of others by selecting Rudi Johnson as her 4th back.

This annoyingly resilient and flawed behavior is driving me insane. Why? First of all, did anyone draft Mason Crosby or Nick Folk last year? If you say you did, you are a liar! That’s because fantasy kickers are especially unpredictable. “What about the guys like Adam Vinatieri and Shayne Graham, who have had 3 or 4 consecutive solid seasons”, says the stubborn man. Yes, there are kickers who always do well, but let’s compare last year’s top ranked kicker with the 12th ranked kicker. Depending on your scoring format, the top ranked kicker was Mason Crosby and he averaged 8.8 ppg. The 12th ranked kicker was Adam Vinatieri and he averaged 7.4 ppg. The difference between the two is a tiny 1.4 ppg. Is that really worth a 9th round selection? Absolutely not! In reality, kickers are worth absolutely nothing, but unfortunately, we have to draft at least one. So when you do, please make it your last pick. It’s not going to make a difference and at least you won’t make the mistake of passing up solid depth. There’s always a ton of late round gems out there and if you waste an early pick on a kicker, you may be missing out.

There you have it. Avoid those mistakes and you will take the first step in separating yourself from the rift raft. Thanks to this wonderful subscriber, I was able to vent for a short while. Ahhhh, I feel much better. Oh by the way, she ran this draft. Her current roster is:

QB - Matt Hasselbeck
QB – Vince Young

RB - Brian Westbrook
RB – Willis McGahee
RB – Reggie Bush
RB – Rudi Johnson

WR – Chad Johnson
WR – Anquan Boldin
WR – Chris Chambers
WR – Bobby Engram
WR – Anthony Gonzalez
WR – Devin Hester

TE – Tony Scheffler

K – Jason Hanson

DEF – Dallas Cowboys

If you notice, her team is stocked with legitimate talent, especially at running back. Yet, she was still able to go after a couple of high risk yet higher reward players in Devin Hester and Vince Young. Kudos on the great draft!

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Candy -6/26

June 26th, 2008  JunkyardJake.Com

Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals, SS  
In his first extended major league assignment, Aviles is certainly making a favorable impression. After taking over the shortstop job from the remotely hitting Tony Pena, Aviles has stepped in with 3 HRs and a .339 average in 16 games. Aviles success is not really too surprising, as he has improved consistently over the past three seasons at the AAA level. He had 8 HR and a .264 average in 2006, then improved to 17 HRs and a .295 average in 2007. Before his callup, he had hit 10 homeruns in 51 games for AAA Omaha. He looks like he could offer nice power at the SS position, so he makes sense even in a mixed league format.
Available in 47% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins, SP  
Slowey is one of those underrated pitchers that can produce surprising good results, despite lacking an awe-inspiring fastball. This young hurler normally throws fastballs in the high 80's, and also throws a curveball, slider and a changeup. What makes Slowey a solid pitcher, is that no matter what he throws, they generally go exactly where he wants them to. He was knocked around a little during his short major league trial in 2007, but his minor league stats were very impressive that year - 133 innings, a 1.89 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and only 18 walks. He did get bombed for 8 runs versus the White Sox a few weeks ago, but over all, he has had 4 quality starts in his last six outings.
Available in 59% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals, OF  
After failing to crack single digits on the homerun scale from 2004 through 2007, it's easy to see why DeJesus has never been known for his power hitting prowess. For some reason he has been cranking out more dingers this year - he already has 8, and is finally on pace to exceed the magic singe-digit barrier. DeJesus is also delivering the solid batting average that was expected from him after last season's dropoff to .259. For the season, he is at .305, and has had equal success against lefties (.295 BA) and righties (.310 BA).
Available in 43% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves, SP  
We know the Braves organization has a long history as a pitcher-producing factory, but even they have to be slightly surpised by the sudden turnaround in the fortunes of Charlie Morton. Before 2008, Morton was roming around the Braves minor league system walking everybody, and typically producing an ERA of around 5.00, with an ugly WHIP. After working on his mechanics, 2008 was a completely story. At AAA Richmond before his callup, Morton had a 2.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He has decent stuff, including a 90 MPH sinking fastball, and a solid curveball, so Morton is worth keeping an eye on if he can prove that his improved command is not a fluke.
Available in 75% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Jeff Clement, Seattle Mariners, C  
Clement was called up from the minors in May, and didn't accomplish much, but the Mariners say that they are sticking with him this time around. I guess we can believe that when we see it, but in any event, he is definitely worth considering for your fantasy squad right now if you are thin at the catcher position. Clement grades very high on the power scale, and has been an especially prolific HR hitter in the minors during 2008. After 20 HRs in 2007 for AAA Tacoma, the young catcher has 14 in only 47 games this year. (This translates into about 37 HRs over a typical minor league season.)

Available in 71% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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Other Players To Consider:
Jeff Keppinger,Cincinnati Reds,SS  
Available in 64% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Kelly Shoppach,Cleveland Indians,C  
Available in 81% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Chris Iannetta,Colorado Rockies,C  
Available in 61% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Seth McClung,Milwaukee Brewers,SP  
Available in 80% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

Chris DavisTexas Rangers,3B  
Available in 95% of all CBSSportsline leagues.

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The Power of "4"

The Power of “4”
When Alfonso Soriano hit 39 HR in 2002, he provided power numbers from a 2nd baseman, which hadn’t been seen in quite awhile. Soriano was eventually moved into the outfield, once again leaving a power void in the middle infield.
The resurgence of the power hitting 2nd baseman has begun and four players on pace for great years. Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler are all on track to finish with 25+ HR and 90+ RBI, with Utley and Uggla aiming higher.
Brandon Phillips has 13 HR and 43 RBI. He has the lowest RBI total of the group, but finished out last year with 94 RBI to go along with 30 HR. His .271 average is also the lowest of the four players mentioned but he’s in a lineup with Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce. Look for him to get hot after the break.
Ian Kinsler has the lowest HR total of the group with 12, but he boasts the highest batting average, hitting .305 with 47 RBI. It’s Kinsler’s run total that has been the most impressive. He’s rounded the bases 64 times, which is good for 2nd best in the league.
Chase Utley certainly isn’t a surprise anymore, but his power seems to be even better than previous seasons. He’s led the MLB in homeruns for the majority of the year and currently sits in 2nd with 22 bombs. He’s also 4th in the MLB in RBI with 63. His .291 average and 57 runs make him a very well rounded player.
Dan Uggla has become the blue print for a power hitting 2nd baseman this year. His hot streak of late has allowed him to surpass Utley and take the MLB lead in HR with 23. He’s 9th in the league with 57 RBI and has 57 runs to go with his .294 average.
The Reds and Rangers aren’t likely to be in contention when the playoffs roll around, but look for Utley and Uggla to battle it out for the NL East title. Both the Phillies and Marlins know that the added bonus of having a power hitting 2nd baseman could provide just the boost needed to make a postseason run.

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White Sox Musings

We all know that the Chicago White Sox were swept by their cross town rivals this past weekend! What most of you don't know (unless you're from Chicago) is that the "cry babies" on the south side couldn't go back to the Cell without having some crass parting words for the Chicago Cubs organization and their fans!
Listed below are some parting comments made by Ozzie Guillen & crew before they offically crawled their way back to "The Cell" with their Bibs, Rattlers & Diapers on!
Ozzie Guillen: "The rats at Wrigley Field have gotten bigger, they must be lifting weights".
A.J. Pierzynski: "Cubs Fans are all idiots".
John Danks: "Their Clubhouse smells like someone urinated in it"!
Too bad the rest of the organization didn't have a s much class as their GM Kenny Williams! Oh well, I guess they'll NEVER get used to being eternally known as "The Other" team that plays in Chicago.

Go Cubs!

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MLB Injury Report: 6/22/2008

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Injury Report 6-22-08
Chipper Jones
Jones will sit out his 3rd straight game due to his quad. He should return soon.
Eric Byrnes
Byrnes should be back with Arizona very soon and he’s had plenty of time on the DL to recover.
Hideki Matsui
Matsui had his knee drained recently, but isn’t expected to land on the DL.
Hank Blalock
Blalock has been on his rehab assignment for 3 days and should rejoin the big club early in the week.
Albert Pujols
Pujols seems to be recovering nicely and a return date is scheduled for Thursday.
Alfonso Soriano
Soriano should be back in time for the Cubs Vs. White Sox Series at the Cell this weekend!

Week 12 Review from The All American Home Run Derby

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Week 12 Review
Dan Uggla now leads the Majors with 23 homeruns and fellow 2nd baseman Chase Utley is just one shy of his mark. Ryan Braun, Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez all have 20 HR.
Sixteen players have between 15 and 19 round trippers. Hanley Ramirez represents the middle infield with 16, while Ryan Howard(19) and Pat Burrell(18) give the Phillies 3 players in the Top 9.
The 10-14 HR group has 28 members. Miguel Cabrera(10) remains at a snails pace, but Corey Hart(11) has turned around a slow start. Joey Votto(12) and Brandon Phillips(13) show that Dunn and Griffey aren’t the only power hitters in Cincy and ARod(14) continues to climb the leaderboard.
Thirty players comprise the 5-9 HR crew. Eric Byrnes(6), Vernon Wells(7), Matt Holliday(8) and Brad Hawpe(9) are all looking to make up for time lost on the DL. Khalil Greene(7) is showing that last year’s HR total was just a fluke and Justin Upton(9) is out to prove that he’s the real deal.
The fifteen players with a total of 5 or less HR continue to disappoint. Not surprisingly, 10 of the guys have spent time in the minors or injured, but Kosuke Fukudome(5) and Delmon Young(1) can’t use that excuse.
The only players that have failed to go deep are Josh Field, who is still in the minors, and Victor Martinez, who is out until after the break. Barry Bonds will no longer be mentioned barring his return.

Is Strength of Schedule worth worrying about?

Strength of schedule is one of the many factors that fantasy football players often include in their player rankings to try and get an edge over their opponents. One of the problems with strength of schedule however is that there is so much parity in the NFL that a bad run defense can become one of the best ones in the following year. This article will consider statistics from the past four seasons and will try and determine whether or not strength of schedule is one of the factors worth worrying about in fantasy football.

The first step for this analysis was to determine how much defensive statistics vary from year to year. In order to do this I used the “points allowed by position” statistics which tell us how many fantasy points each team allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers in a given season. The goal was to find the degree of correlation between the points each team allowed in two consecutive seasons. Using statistics from 2003 through 2007 here are the formulas that predict the most accurately each team’s points allowed by position for the next season:

	Formula
QB	Next Year Pts Allowed = 214 + 0.223 x Previous Year Pts Allowed
RB	Next Year Pts Allowed = 303 + 0.196 x Previous Year Pts Allowed
WR	Next Year Pts Allowed = 400 + 0.230 x Previous Year Pts Allowed

These formulas show us that it is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform in the upcoming season as only 20% to 25% of the previous year’s statistics help us predict next year’s statistics. For example, the Cleveland Browns were the worst passing defense last season by allowing 333 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but according to the above formula you can expect them to allow only 288 in 2008. For those who doubt these formulas, of the ten defenses that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2006 only two remained in the bottom ten in 2007 and three were in the top ten.

The next step was to use these numbers and determine each team’s strength of schedule by position for the 2008 season. The following charts show the three easiest and the three hardest schedules for each position as well as the multiplier which shows how much easier or harder their schedule is compared to the league average:

Easiest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
WAS	1.008	MIN	1.017	WAS	1.016
PHI	1.007	CAR	1.015	SF	1.015
TB	1.007	NO	1.015	NYG	1.009

Hardest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
SD	0.989	CIN	0.980	SD	0.985
NE	0.991	NYG	0.983	NO	0.988
DEN	0.993	PIT	0.983	DEN	0.989

These numbers show us that the difference is less than 4% between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. For example the Minnesota Vikings have the easiest schedule for running backs but we can expect the defenses they will face to allow only 1.7% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average. This means that if you project Adrian Peterson to have 300 fantasy points, his easier schedule would mean you can expect him to have 305 fantasy points. There are so many factors in fantasy football and fantasy players try and include as many as possible in their rankings but I believe these statistics show that projected strength of schedule is one that is almost negligible.

There is one factor that is rarely looked at that I believe is much more important than projected strength of schedule and that is the previous season’s strength of schedule. If you think about it, it does not make much sense that it is more common to try and predict how good a player’s opponents will be next season than looking at how good his opponents were last season. The following charts are very similar to the ones shown previously but in this case they will show the three teams who had the easiest and hardest schedules in 2007 based on 2007 statistics:

Easiest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
PIT	1.055	MIN	1.086	SEA	1.081
TB	1.045	GB	1.072	SF	1.078
ARI	1.040	KC	1.060	PIT	1.058

Hardest Schedules
QB		RB		WR
DEN	0.940	BUF	0.936	DEN	0.947
JAX	0.952	NYJ	0.938	SD	0.950
NO	0.959	CIN	0.946	TEN	0.951

As you can see these numbers vary much more than the ones shown previously and it is quite normal because instead of applying the formulas that only take into account 20% to 25% of the 2007 statistics we just used the 2007 statistics. The difference is quite remarkable between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. Ben Roethlisberger for example had 306 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allowed on average 290.1 fantasy pts while the league average is 274.9. If you divide 306 by 1.055 you obtain 290 fantasy points, Ben Roethlisberger’s estimated number of fantasy pts in 2007 had he faced average defenses. If you do the same thing for Jay Cutler who had 267 points with the hardest schedule for quarterbacks, his adjusted number of fantasy pts for 2007 is 284. This means that Roethlisberger who seemingly was much superior to Cutler last season in fact only had six more points than him if we adjust for strength of schedule.

Now these multipliers are not perfect because some would argue that for example Minnesota’s opponents allowed more points to running backs than the average defense because they all had to face the Vikings at least once. It is true that a run offense that was as dominant as Minnesota may have a strength of schedule multiplier that is a little too high but I do not think it has a significant impact. These numbers are not directly used in Ultimate FF Strategy’s 2008 Projections but they might help explain a few things like the very solid seasons of Kurt Warner, Adrian Peterson and Ryan Grant or the disappointing seasons of Thomas Jones and Rudi Johnson. The reason these numbers are not used directly in our projections is that the historical statistics we look at were not adjusted for strength of schedules either. For example, when we say that players who had a yards per carry average between 5.2 and 6.0, like Peterson, had a decrease of 18% in YPC in the next year, part of the reason for that 18% decrease for many players could have been that they had an easy strength of schedule. It would therefore be incorrect to decrease Peterson’s projected yards per carry average by 15% to 20% because similar players had that decrease and then by another 8% because he had an easy schedule last season. For those interested we have posted the complete 2007 strength of schedules by position.

Defenses change so much from year to year that it is not very useful to look at a player’s strength of schedule based on the previous year’s defensive statistics. Certain people do try to adjust defensive statistics based on changes made in the off-season but it is such a small factor that you are much better spending your time on predicting the offensive players’ statistics. However, looking at the previous year’s strength of schedules to adjust player statistics will allow you to compare players much more accurately and could help you explain a few things that will give you an edge over other fantasy football players in your draft.

Ultimate Draft Strategy

A few months ago we published an article (Average Draft Position Analysis) which compared average draft position with end of year statistics in order to find a general draft strategy. In this article, we will use the results obtained from that study and compare them with this year’s average draft position as well as our rankings in order to offer a much more precise drafting strategy for 2008.

Early to Middle 1^st Round: One of the guidelines was to draft a RB if you have one of the first seven picks. This year the top seven RBs are Tomlinson, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook, Addai, Gore and Barber. Ultimate FF Strategy is not so high on Jackson and Gore but we are on Portis who is currently at number eight in average draft position. We would therefore recommend drafting Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, Barber and Portis in the order that you prefer before going to any other position.

Late 1^st and Early 2^nd Round: As mentioned in the other article, after the top seven or eight running backs it becomes very hard to predict which ones will perform. Since 2004, only 25% of the RBs drafted between picks seven and twelve end up finishing in the top twelve RBs at the end of the year. Remember that this is the danger zone for running backs so you will want to go with the safest options. The choices are Johnson, Lynch, McGahee, Grant and Jones-Drew. Ultimate FF Strategy has McGahee and Jones-Drew as low risk players and Grant could also be an option but if Portis drops to the late first then there is no doubt that he should be your pick. We do not recommend going with Brady even though he is by far the best QB since there are later constraints with RBs and WRs. If you draft Brady in the first it would mean you have to go with two RBs in the second and third and there is little value in rounds four and five at WR so it would leave you with a very thin group of receivers. For that reason we very highly recommend getting Moss or Wayne who are the obvious top two at WR.

Middle to Late 2^nd Round: In a PPR, RBs 8 to 13 average only five more points than RBs 14 to 20. This means that at this point unless a RB you really like (Jones-Drew would be a good pick in the late 2^nd) falls, you should go with your favorite WR amongst Owens, Edwards, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Colston. We recommend to stay away from risky options like Edwards and A. Johnson and would likely draft Colston before any of those guys but that is for you to decide in your draft.

3^rd Round: One of our important guidelines to follow was to have two RBs by the end of the third round so unless you went with two RBs with your first two picks you will have to draft one here. At this point your options are probably Maroney, Bush, Lewis, Jacobs, Brown and Parker. Brown and Jacobs are big gambles but they could really payoff; all we can say is that if you choose to go with one of those two then make sure you get a good third RB. If you did go with two RBs in the first then you should go with the last one of the top four QBs which are Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees or a WR. The problem for WRs at this point is that there is generally little value because WRs 11 to 20 average only 19 more points than WRs 21 to 30 in a PPR. The difference this year however is that the three WRs being drafted in the late third round are Burress, Holt and Welker and we believe all three are pretty low risk options. If you are drafting earlier in the round then Steve Smith and Chad Johnson are also possibilities.

4^th Round: At this point there is little value at WR and the players being drafted are not ones we particularly like so we strongly recommend staying away from WRs at this point unless Burress, Holt or Welker falls. At QB there is a possibility that Brees would still be available and he would be a good pick at this point if you like him. If he is not then we recommend staying away from QBs because there is a big drop after the top four and history has shown that there is good value in later rounds. At RB, history has shown that RBs 21 to 31 are all quite similar so we would recommend waiting unless your first two RBs are quite injury-prone then McFadden and James could be pretty good picks. This leaves us with the TE position where we believe that Jason Witten is well above the other ones and he would be a very good pick in the fourth round.

5^th round: This is another difficult round because there is still little value at QB and WR. At this point we recommend drafting either a top four TE which are Witten, Gates, Winslow and Gonzalez or your third RB depending on that you did in the fourth round. Ultimate FF Strategy is very high on Thomas Jones this year and he is an excellent pick in the fifth round. Just make sure that you should have your third RB by the end of the fifth round.

6^th and 7^th round: These are the rounds where there is good value at the WR position and you should draft two WRs. Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are our favorites but White, Chambers, Driver, Moss, Curtis, Gonzalez and Galloway are also good options if you prefer them. Javon Walker and Bernard Berrian are also both being drafted around this point but we have them much lower in our rankings and would recommend staying away from them. You may also want to start considering drafting your starting QB; Cutler is a good pick in the seventh round.

8^th round: You will want to make sure you have your starting QB by the 8^th round. Cutler and Garrard are our favorite guys at this point; Manning and Bulger are also possible options. We are also big fans of Aaron Rodgers who you should be able to get in the ninth round but he is still a very good pick in the eighth round. Make sure you have all your starting wide receivers by the end of the eighth round.

9^th and 10^th round: By the end of the tenth round you must have your starting TE and your starting QB. In these rounds we like Rodgers, Schaub and Young at QB and at TE we love Scheffler and Daniels. From this point on there are few guidelines to follow other than waiting on your kicker and defense. Simply make sure you have enough backups at each position and be careful about bye weeks as well.

Drafting in Non-PPR leagues: There is not too much difference in terms of strategy if you are drafting in a league that does not give a point for each reception. The only change we would make is in the third round we would recommend drafting a QB before that group of WRs but Moss and Wayne are still good options in the first or second round.

Drafting in a 3 or 6 points per TD pass league: If your league only gives 3 point for each TD pass then stay away from the QBs in the third round and if it gives 6 points per TD pass then similar to a non-PPR league we would highly recommend Romo or Brees before a WR.

Diamond Dames

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Top 10 Undervalued Players

#10 Torry Holt: He has finished in the top 15 for wide receivers for eight consecutive seasons and has only missed two games in his entire NFL career. Last season, which many considered a disappointing season, he had the same number of receptions and yards as the previous year but his touchdowns dropped from ten to seven. He finished 11th for wide receivers in a year where the Rams offense was a disaster because of injuries. Put all that together and you have a wide receiver that cannot finish worse than 11th but who has consistently shown that he can be a top five receiver.

#9 Willis McGahee: He finished last season as the ninth best running back in his first year with Baltimore and in the 14 full games that he played, he averaged 20.6 carries per game. New Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves to throw the ball to his running backs as we saw with Tomlinson in San Diego and last season with Ronnie Brown who had 39 receptions in only seven games. The retirement of Ogden may be a concern but his replacement, Jared Gaither, is a very good run blocker which may make the Ravens run the ball even more than last year. McGahee has only missed three games in four seasons and he will at least get as many carries as last season so he can only improve if we consider the improved line and the Cam Cameron factor.

#8 Jerricho Cotchery / Laveranues Coles: They are both being drafted in the 25 to 30 range for wide receivers even though Cotchery finished 20th last year and Coles was as good as him in points per game. The Jets line is much improved this season with the additions of Faneca and Woody as well as Ferguson and Mangold who should improve in their third season. The quarterback play is still inconsistent but it cannot be worse than it was last season. Both of these receivers have been good for two consecutive seasons so they are pretty safe picks and they also have a lot of upside because of the much improved offensive line.

#7 Maurice Jones-Drew: He is once again being drafted much lower than he should be because everyone fears that Fred Taylor will continue to steal carries away from him. He was the 8th best running back in 2006 and the 11th best in 2007 and he is only 23 years old. Those numbers alone should make him a top ten pick but his average draft position is about 13th for running backs. If you now consider that he has reached those numbers with less than 170 carries, that Fred Taylor is 32 years old, that the Jaguars line is better than last season and that it has a lot of depth, it makes him a very good safe pick in the late first or early second round.

#6 David Garrard: His numbers from weeks 11 to 16 when his offensive line was the same as it will be this year would have made him the ninth best quarterback and only ten points behind the fifth best. Of the eight quarterbacks above him, one retired, one lost his best offensive lineman and one had 70 more pass attempts than his average of the past three years. The additions of Porter and Williamson give Garrard more options this season and the depth on the offensive line makes him a pretty safe pick. The concern with Garrard is that he has yet to play 16 games in a season but it is also only the second time that he enters the season as the starter. Nonetheless, he should finish much higher than number 13, his current average draft position.

#5 Owen Daniels: He was the seventh best tight end last season in only his second NFL season and had only three touchdowns. Schaub played eight full games last season and Daniels had 41 receptions for 528 yards and 1 TD in those games which would have made him the fifth best tight end over 16 games. He is currently being drafted as the 11th best tight end which means as long as his numbers decrease by less than 10% he will be a good pick. That is a little ridiculous if you consider that he is 25 years old and his projected numbers over 16 games with Schaub are 25% higher than his actual statistics from last season.

#4 Aaron Rodgers: His average draft position is about 18th at the moment for quarterbacks even though he is on one of the best teams in the NFC. You can find a full article that explains why we believe Aaron Rodgers is much better than that here. If we assume Rodgers will run for about 150 yards and a touchdown which should not be too hard to do for him, his passing numbers only have to be 70% of what Favre’s were last season for him to finish above his average draft position.

#3 Tony Scheffler: He became the starting tight end for Denver in week 5 and still finished the year as the 11th best tight end. Over the past two seasons he has started 17 games at tight end and had 61 receptions for 768 yards and 9 touchdowns; those numbers make him a top six or seven tight end. Furthermore, last season Denver was missing two of its best offensive linemen for most of the season and their starting quarterback was playing with diabetes and did not know it. There are slight concerns about his foot injury but the season is still three months away and it should not be a concern when you are drafting a potential top five tight end in the tenth round.

#2 Marques Colston: Only ten wide receivers finished in the top 20 in each of the past two seasons and Colston only played 14 games in 2006. He is by far the best wide receiver on an offense that was first in passing yards in 2006 and third in 2007. If we look at the receivers who finished above Colston last season, Moss and Wayne should still be above; Owens is 35 years old and could slow down; Edwards could very well be a one-year wonder considering similar receivers dropped by an average of 16%; Fitzgerald has been inconsistent; Houshmandzadeh and Johnson were only slightly better and there are quite a few question marks in Cincinnati this year. On average only three or four wide receivers will remain in the top ten the following year and Colston is one of the few safe options in the top 10 from last year, yet he is only being drafted in the early third round.

#1 Clinton Portis: In six seasons in the NFL, Portis has never had less than 250 points per 16 games in a point per reception league. He will be only 27 years old when the season begins, he was the third best running back last season, he has missed only 12 games in six seasons in the NFL and yet he is only being drafted as the eighth or ninth best running back. Moreover, last season the Redskins were missing its two best run blockers on the offensive line for most of the season. New head coach Jim Zorn will probably use an offense similar to Seattle’s where he was quarterback coach for the past few seasons and Alexander managed to put up very solid numbers from 2001 to 2006 in that offense. Portis is a much safer option with your first round pick than someone like Marion Barber who has not proven much or Gore, Jackson and Johnson who have poor offensive lines. Portis is not a spectacular pick but remember that since 2004, only 7 of the 28 running backs that were drafted between picks 6 and 12 finished the season in the top 12. This means that if you make a pick in the middle to late first round, it has a 25% chance of living up to those expectations; Portis has shown much more consistency than any other running back taken in the middle to late first round.